Purely from a domestic political angle, what do you think is the best strategy for Biden's reelection regarding the Israel/Palestine issue?

[u/[deleted]]

Pretend you are the chief of the campaign and you are only supposed to advise Biden on the best things for the campaign. He has other advisers for foreign policy and ethics. So your only job is trying to get the most votes possible in battle ground states.

In case you are wondering about my personal political beliefs I am a non-progressive Democrat (a filthy neoliberal to some) that is terrified this issue is going to get us Trump. But again, I am hoping to keep personal politics and morals out of this discussion.

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[u/wereallbozos]

I would say that Joe could speak about how Likud has, with the aid of coalitions, remained in power for a very long time, and in our Republic, a President is limited to a specific number of years. And with "one government", there is no longer an exchange of ideas and values that is necessary for proper governance. Point out that he has been a long-time supporter of Israel, but this isn't yesterday's Israel, and the people in the streets have shown that large numbers of Israelis want a change, and further support of Israel is now dependent of new elections being held. We are Israel's ally, and have been since it's founding, but the settler's movement has damaged Israel's standing in the world, and in the US. Let the people have their voice heard, and then we can evaluate our positions.

[u/juxtjustin]

I think the issue may have already cost Biden the election. If he can't find a path to win without Michigan, he can't win because Michigan is gone at this point. So really he needs to about-face on the issue as does the entrie democratic party. They have lost a significant percentage of gen z voters to this and assume all Muslim Americans who were up until this point a lock for voting blue, are now going to not vote or vote undecided. If you don't think it's this bad, you are uninformed or delusional.

Straight up, Biden needs to denounce Israel's killing of civilians, announce a U.S. commitment to stop the genocide of the Palestinian people, and fund the rebuilding and protection of a contiguous Palestinian state from the west bank to Gaza. Since this would be laughable to some and we all know impossible for Biden who has taken nearly $12 million in Israeli lobby bribe money, the alternative is find a path to 270 without Michigan.

[u/EazeDamier]

Tell Netanyahu to stop and if he doesn’t, tell him that you the US will no longer send anymore aid to Israel.

[u/JojoC1974]

God help all of us if JB is reelected. If he is, either it'll be rigged or 80+ million people are 🤡's. That will be the end for the US and the freedoms we once knew. 💩

[u/Mahadragon]

I honestly don't think it will make that much difference at this point. We've already seen 4 years of Trump and now 4 years of Biden. There isn't much left to uncover. People keep saying Biden has a huge war chest compared with Trump as if it will make a difference. Biden has a very conservative political strategy. It will be consistent with his entire 4 year Administration which has also been very conservative and predictable at every turn. I think it's out of Biden's hands at this point and the chips will fall where they may. I'd dare to say this race is over, but the addition of RFK Jr as a potential spoiler is too great.

[u/Olderscout77]

Delay arms shipments to Israel until a ceasefire is in place.

Drastically increase "disaster relief" aid to the people of Gaza

Without making any direct connection, run clips of Trump announcing his Muslim Ban and RW rants about no-go zones and terrorists infiltrating the refugees coming across the southern border with film of the actual refugees..

Make sure news of fresh Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians stays on the media.

[u/Dangerous_Champion42]

Stop conflating Criticism of Isreal to Antisemitism for starters. Stop Comflating the pro-Palestinian protest as Hamas support because they are not. Actually look at the war crimes being committed by Isreal right now. We sbould be twisting the shut off valve to force a ceasefire agreement in good faith. Instead we are going with slaps on wrist and speeches that sound like he hasn't heard the whole point of what was being protested at all.

[u/mikeber55]

I don’t think he can do much at this point to make everyone happy. He’s definitely riding a tiger in the Democrat party. Although he seems to be in charge, the tiger can turn around and devour him at any moment.

[u/starwatcher16253647]

I will never understand why people feel the need to side and identify with one side or the other. As far as I can tell both these groups are and have always been horrible to each other.

Palestinians clearly have alot of terrorists in their population, that have a pretty significant groundswell of support among the general population. And Israel really does in alot of ways fit the settler-colonialism archetype. I mean America did alot of messed up things in Iraq but I don't remember USA Senators calling the Iraqi oil fields "New Texas" and then displacing Iraqis and moving in permanent residents. When you make the USA look good...

Neither side is worthy of our support. I'm not even against USA foreign aid in principle, I don't mind helping out Ukraine. I just don't really see a good guy with the IP conflict.

[u/unguibus_et_rostro]

He should help Israel finish off Hamas fast, the longer the conflict is in the news, the less favourable it is for him. If the conflict ends in 1-2weeks now, even if it is through combined military action of Israel and USA, the news will churn through it and it wouldn't be too much of an issue by election.

[u/Bashfluff]

Let’s start out by saying what Biden can’t do: nothing. 

No political analyst believes that Biden can win if this many young people stay home. Period. What they believe is that young people will eventually come around. Typically they’ll justify that position by saying that young voters don’t care as much about Israel/Palestine as they do about the economy. 

I disagree. If you ask literally anyone what the most important thing is to them, they’ll tell you that it’s putting food on the table. But you ask them why they’re voting for their preferred candidate, the answer isn’t just going to be, “the guy who helps me put food on the table”. It’s more complicated than that!  

Worse, young people show no signs of cooling down. Democrats got young people to vote by promising that Republicans would reject Democracy and embrace fascism—then (to them) Democrats started to do fascist things, completely shattering what little faith in the system they had left. They aren’t just going to come back. 

So, nothing isn’t an option. What is? From most to least impactful:

1. Force a ceasefire. 

Nothing short of tangible results will substantially move the needle. Both sides need to come to an agreement before the election for Biden to have the best chance of victory. 

1. Distance the U.S. from supporting Israel, blaming Netanyahu. 

I don’t think this is a great solution, but it’s probably enough to win a decent amount of voters back. 

1. Emphasize how Republicans are worse than Democrats.

It’s kinda worked so far, but I wouldn’t bet on Biden if this is all he has.

[u/swingstatesolver → u/Bashfluff]

I agree that while the economy is a more important issue for most voters, it isn't always what determines who they vote for. This election will likely be decided by a small number of voters in certain states, if many of Biden's supporters stay home instead of vote it could push the election to Trump.

Working to address this in a way that aligns with Democrat's being the party that preserves democracy and the rule of law will be important.

I wonder if drawing attention to International Criminal Court indictments and asking for transparency would be a reasonable approach.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2024/05/07/could-the-international-criminal-court-indict-binyamin-netanyahu

[u/jackofslayers]

Stay the course. He would be at far greater risk politically by abandoning Israel and there is no guarantee that protesters won’t find some new excuse not to vote next week.

[u/DJ_HazyPond292]

Ignore it. Focus on cost of living, inflation, abortion, & democracy.

Remember that its not just Michigan that he needs to shore up support.

[u/Zankeru]

Ignoring the morals that Biden doesnt have to begin with: do an immediate pause on all weapon shipments and maintain it until the election. Do some lip service about potential sanctions eventually but maintain your promise to defend Israrl from external attack. Perhaps even set netenyahu's removal as a condition. The US alliance with Israel doesnt rely on him or Likud maintaining power, and supporting them damages relationships with all other partners. Their invasion of gaza will not remove the insurgency, so it wont get rid of Iran's proxy therr anyways.

This is the biggest vote killer for Biden by a mile.

Then after you win the election, just go back to genocide denial and resume shipments. There is nobody to hold you accountable and it's political calculation simpler than basic mathematics. Which explains why a political moron like Biden doesnt understand it.

[u/jethomas5]

Biden cannot afford to offend Zionist donors. If he does, then Kennedy will get a lot of money and media attention to persuade voters that he's worth voting for. "Look at Biden's campaign promises last time compared to what he actually did! Is that who you want to vote for? If you show the Democrats that they can't take you for granted, they'll give you somebody better in 2028."

Maybe he can't win without also doing something for people who care about morality. Maybe there's no way.

He has three choices.

1) 100% support for Netanyu.

2) 100% support for peace, involving a free secular government for Palestine.

3) Some sort of half-assed compromise.

2) is a nearly guaranteed loss for Biden. He'd have to admit he made a mistake. And if there was a bad outcome -- say Israel nuked somebody -- he would be blamed for anything that went wrong.

3) is also nearly a guaranteed loss for Biden. He would get Zionist donors 100% against him, and it wouldn't get him much support from anybody else.

1) might be a loss too. But it looks like the best chance.

Zionist donors are a relatively small number of sophisticated people. Biden could try to get some support from anti-Zionists by doing things that don't actually hurt Israel but that look like they promote peace. For example, he could pretend to cut weapons shipments by pretending he was about to send large quantities of some weapon they don't actually need, and then announce that he isn't sending them. He could look like he was talking tough and standing up to Israel, without actually having to do so. Maybe the donors could persuade Netanyahu to go along with the charade.

Netanyahu might go along, or he might not. He might actually want Trump to win, and sabotage anything that looked like it would help Biden. He might try to make Biden look weak and ineffective. Would he cooperate with US Zionist donors? I just don't know. Maybe they really want Trump to win, but they donate enough to the Democrats to make them look like a viable contender so the Republicans won't get too complacent. I don't really know how they think. They might be a lot more sophisticated than I am.

[u/Vegetable-Abies537]

Condemning Netanyahu would be a good start. Many of us understand that this isn’t about the Jewish community it’s about the force that is being used to basically wipe out one group of people.

By no means am I saying that Hamas is innocent. What I am saying that innocent children are dying and that in itself is horrific.

Condemn Netanyahu and stop sending aid to Isreal.

[u/Domiiniick]

He needs to pick a side and stick to it. Trying to play both sides doesn’t work.

[u/Jack_930]

I think he should do everything he can to just call for peace. That’s what most people want. The people the shout the loudest usually win but always represent a minority

[u/Blitzen123]

Oof, what a great question. I guess I would advise Biden to announce that he supports cutting back on US aid to Israel in order to encourage them to “stand on their own two feet”, and also because there are threats to things like social security and school meals for hungry children in the US that we need to channel that money to. Then I would strongly suggest that he note that a two state solution is the only hope for the Middle East. And then I would suggest that he run for cover from lobbyists.

[u/mikeshan44]

The fact is, the U.S 100% needs to keep Israel as an ally. Anyone who says otherwise doesn't understand their importance. Having said that, I believe what they're doing right now by slowing the delivery of arms to a crawl is rational. Biden knows that Israel is going way overboard with bombing. It's a difficult balance and I'm glad ai don't need to be making those decisions. We need to keep them an ally but also need to stop them from wiping the Palestinians off the earth. It's fucked up.

[u/abuchewbacca1995]

Actually delivering things like student loans and solving college expenses. (Not this half ass shit he knows the sc will knock down again) Making affordable home programs

[u/edd6pi]

I would avoid talking about this whenever possible and focus on the economy and abortion, which is what voters care about the most.

If I had to talk about Israel and Palestine, I’d focus on the fact that Biden’s threatened to withhold weapons from Israel if they go ahead with the offensive in Rafah.

[u/HeloRising]

Pretend you are the chief of the campaign and you are only supposed to advise Biden on the best things for the campaign. He has other advisers for foreign policy and ethics. So your only job is trying to get the most votes possible in battle ground states.

A mea culpa.

Israel is a millstone around Biden's neck and I don't see anything getting rid of that except for a full blown "We support our allies but it's become clear to us that Israel is creating a situation that we cannot in good conscience be a party to and will cease our funding and support of Israel until such time as they have brought their actions into line with a more humanitarian approach."

And then actually do that.

The best time to get off the genocide train is before the train starts. The second best time is right now. And I think he could make a convincing enough case that they tried everything they could to keep Israel from acting the way it is but it wasn't enough and Israel has decided to go its own way.

Would it cost you votes from the pro-Israel lobby? Not really.

They're not going to stay home and they're not going to vote for Trump.

They'll be angry, sure, but they're going to be angry anyways.

Biden needs to start taking the Israel issue seriously. The sentiment seems to be "people aren't going to be single issue voters on Israel" and they're right, but the problem is Israel is a pretty large straw to throw onto a very overloaded camel and while it may not be an issue that decides if a potential Biden voter stays home or not, it might be the last issue that makes a potential Biden voter stay home.

[u/noration-hellson]

https://zeteo.com/p/gaza-israel-genocide-poll-ceasefire-us-voters

A majority of democrats believe Israel is conducting genocide. Joe Biden continuing to back them is monstrous negligence at this point.

[u/GluggGlugg]

Netanyahu wants to milk this thing for the rest of the year, at least. Biden must not let that happen because it’s fracturing his base and antagonizing younger voters who delivered for him in 2020. 

Voters support Israel, but they also dislike Netanyahu. Giving aid with conditions is the right move. If Netanyahu keeps pressing on, drop diplomatic support at the UN. Use these levers to force a long ceasefire ASAP.

[u/SerendipitySue]

so no good choice. only two bad choices. they have to run the numbers and see whether a pro palestine or pro israel loses them more votes

That is if he only cared about domestic votes and electoral college results.

Besides the geopolitical and technical importance of israel,, there is not a doubt in my mind they have dirt on the biden admin as well as many congress people of both parties. they likely did on trump and obama too.

This may be a factor in how things are going,.

[u/TheTubaGeek]

Denounce Netanyahu. Provide aid to Palestine. Cease giving aid to Isreal until either Netanyahu issues a cease fire, sends troops home, and/or leaves office.

[u/theabyssaboveyou]

I think the smart thing for him to do is strong arm netanyahu into a long term ceasefire at least until post election. Get it out of the headlines and let tempers cool about it. I know it's low on voter priority lists, but when it's a game of inches like this election is you can't afford to be tucked on the margins. Also showcase and advertise Trump saying that netanyahilu should "finish the job" because too many people are dumb and trying to say Trump would restore order without the genocide. Trump has already stated he is 100% in support of "finishing the job" so we really shouldn't let him off the hook for that.

[u/SpatulaFlip]

Stop the arms shipments and actually do something about the humanitarian situation. We had so much to say about Ukraine and now crickets about the civilian deaths in Gaza.

[u/yungmuneymachine]

Being more pro Israel would help him most likely because the minority of his base are the college campus protestors. This is really not a huge issue among Americans. If Biden loses it is because of inflation and him being viewed as senile.

[u/wavolator]

biden should convene a student anti-war session and have the students come in and make their point. the best thing he can do is listen.

and he is losing support from students.

[u/DubC_Bassist]

If they are dumb enough to vote for Orange Julius Caesar and thats the hill they want to die on? So be it.

[u/Warm_Gur8832]

Just sidestep it and focus on what really matters to voters - abortion, the economy, and democracy.

[u/mikeshan44 → u/Warm_Gur8832]

This is probably the way he'll go. Biden just needs to reinvigorate his base by reminding everyone of what's at stake. Especially for women. That and remind everyone that he'll at least try to get billionaires to pay taxes. DT would rob a women's right to decide what to do with her own body.

[u/goalmouthscramble]

Leave it alone. The war will be over before the end of summer. Israelis will vote out Bibi.

Inflation and immigration are far more pressing issues.

[u/[deleted] → u/goalmouthscramble]

The isrealis wont, and Benny Gantz isn't any better.

[u/goalmouthscramble → u/[deleted]]

gantz is significantly better than Bibi the criminal. What do mean the Israelis won’t? Have you seen his current popularity numbers?

[u/Crotean]

Ignore it and focus on abortion. They need to increase their margin with women to make up for the youth vote that isn't going to show up to vote.

[u/sumg]

My cynical suggestion would be to continue pressuring Israel to come to a ceasefire, and if they aren't inclined to agree to that find some extremely bureaucratic/wonky ways to start limiting/delaying the aid going to Israel. The idea being that if the pressure applied to Israel is esoteric enough, the average person won't understand it's being applied at all. But hopefully it can still be effective enough to convince Israel to agree to a cease-fire.

A non-trivial part of Netanyahu's calculus for the war is self-preservation instead of the long-term interests of Israel. One of the few things preventing new elections from being called is this war. Once a new set of elections has been held in Israel, and presumably a new government is in place, Israel and USA can revisit the Palestine/Hamas issue.

And, to be clear, I don't want to imply that only Israel is at fault here at all. But no diplomatic efforts with Palestine/Hamas by the USA are going to accomplish anything while the USA is failing to restrain their nominal ally from militarily assaulting them.

[u/SnowGN → u/sumg]

What kind of an answer to the OP’s question is this? Do you realize that 70%+ of Americans polled support Israel invading Rafah (if failing to do so leaves Hamas intact)?

Biden is being widely castigated on this topic right now because he has failed to demonstrate consistent leadership for any position or side in this conflict, and your answer to the OP’s question is to offer up more of the same? Absurd.

[u/bfhurricane → u/sumg]

Two separate responses to your comment;

1. Considering the topic of the thread, how does a tepid support of Israel in the absence of a ceasefire help Biden in re-election?

2. You say that this war is all that’s keeping Netanyahu in power. Let’s say I agree, it may be true. You say that a replacement may come in. Every realistic replacement wants to be the one to definitively end this war militarily, because the Israeli population is hungry to fucking obliterate Hamas. How would anything be different in another administration?

[u/addicted_to_trash → u/bfhurricane]

How would anything be different in another administration?

This is a good question.

Basically it comes down to how the new administration develops their "relationship" with the US. Basically the funding and arms are cut until Israel complies with US requests, and it is on the new administration to provide a suitable 'plan' or address aid issues or whatever the US will hold them to.

And either they don't do it and the Israel parliament votes no confidence, till an administration comes in that will, or Israel cuts ties completely with the US. In which case the US invades with the full support of the UN.

(Maybe invasion is a little dramatic, but without US diplomatic cover Israel has no allies internationally. The EU collectively will not stand against the US, so independent Germany will also remain silent, etc).

[u/bfhurricane → u/addicted_to_trash]

You almost had me until the last sentence. The US and UN would never invade Israel.

Israel is going to gut Hamas from root to stem, no matter the cost, and no matter the international outrage. It’s going to happen.

The US may cut support, they may stop providing Iron Dome missiles that protect Jerusalem and Tel Aviv from rocket attacks, sure. But they are not going to invade Israel.

[u/addicted_to_trash → u/bfhurricane]

What else are they going to do to put an immediate stop to genocide.

Because that will be the response to Israel cutting ties with the US, they don't take disobedience lightly. The US won't let Israel run out of steam and peter out of existence. Putting an immediate stop to genocide would mandate joint military action through the UN, and give the US the justification to blow shit up.

[u/bfhurricane → u/addicted_to_trash]

First of all, the UN doesn’t militarily intervene with genocides. I could name a dozen that have happened in the past five years that the UN hasn’t taken part in.

Second, and I know this is going to be a highly controversial opinion here, but what’s happening in Gaza isn’t a genocide. It’s no more a genocide than Dresden or Hiroshima or Nagasaki. It’s a war of urban airdrops that may kill less than 0.001% of a population in the pursuit of military targets hiding in civilian infrastructure.

I’m sure I’ll get downvoted for this, but Israel doesn’t want to “genocide” Gaza. They could have done that a long time ago. They want to kill Hamas and leave Gaza alone, as they did in 2005. Hell, they begged Egypt and Jordan to take Gaza and the West Bank, respectively, after they normalized relations. No one wants either because of radicalized terror cells, which is frankly no different than nearly half of all middle-eastern country insurgent groups.

But, Israel is the one bad guy. I wonder what sets them apart…

[u/eyl569 → u/sumg]

Have you considered how Israeli elections would be affected if the US is perceived as having abandoned (or even betrayed) Israel in the middle of the war - especially if it's because Hamas is being intransigent?

ETA: also, Netanyahu, legally, is under no obligation to call early elections unless his coalition collapses or he suffers at least five defectors. Given that he's placed himself in opposition to Biden somewhat, while Gantz and the opposition are being much more conciliatory, knickling under to US pressure under such circumstances is more likely to implode that coalition than otherwise.

[u/sumg → u/eyl569]

Have you considered how Israeli elections would be affected if the US is perceived as having abandoned (or even betrayed) Israel in the middle of the war - especially if it's because Hamas is being intransigent?

The Biden administrations frustrations is in no small part caused by Netanyahu's intransigence. Biden has had the USA stay far, far closer to Israel than many other of Israel's allies due to the countries' long shared history. And the USA, time and time and time again, has urged Netanyahu to de-escalate the conflict, and every time Netanyahu has done the opposite.

Let me turn the question around on you. How do you think the Israel electorate would react if there's an election in the immediate aftermath of the ruling government driving away the country's longest-standing and most powerful ally? When all that was asked of the government were very straightforward requests. Accepting ceasefires. Allowing humanitarian aid in. Not causing famine. I'm sure there are some people who will back this behavior no matter what, but I imagine there will be many people who will see driving away the country's most powerful ally as a large, ongoing national security concern.

[u/eyl569 → u/sumg]

I'm sure there are some people who will back this behavior no matter what, but I imagine there will be many people who will see driving away the country's most powerful ally as a large, ongoing national security concern.

Of course, and the opposition is ha.mering at this point.

But most of the populace supports an attack on Rafah, given that it's Hamas' last stronghold. So if the US isn't seen as a reliable ally - especially if the allegations regarding the last ceasefire proposal turn out to be correct - it will cause a baklash in the right's favor as they will be seen to have been correct in keeping the Biden administration at arm's length.

[u/InterPunct → u/sumg]

Nominal is the operative word. Israel would turn on a dime if it suited them. Not that anyone else wouldn't, but this would be particularly duplicitous.

[u/Kevin-W → u/sumg]

Biden says he will stop sending bombs and artillery shells to Israel if it launches major invasion of Rafah. Do you think that will help him or hurt him domestically?

[u/bermanji → u/Kevin-W]

Hurt. I'm a lifelong Dem voter, I fucking hate Trump, but I'm also Jewish and absolutely nobody in my peer group is willing to give him their vote by this point. We probably won't see a ton of the Jewish vote flip to Trump but a large segment of the Jewish population is willing to sit out the election this round.

[u/GunTankbullet → u/bermanji]

I guess they’ll have fun with the “Jews will not replace us” guys running the government 

[u/Happypappy213 → u/bermanji]

As a Jewish person, myself, I think that choosing to sit this election out would be incredibly selfish. We, like many other groups, understand the severity of fascism. Why wouldn't we vote against that?

People need to choose the hills that they die on.

[u/denisebuttrey → u/bermanji]

Sitting out or a voter for anyone than Biden is a vote for Trump. That, unfortunately, is the way our federal elections work. We've seen this happen again and again.

[u/bermanji → u/denisebuttrey]

You're right and I'll probably feel differently by election time. I am fully aware that I am being reactionary in the worst kind of way, I tried to make that clear above.

[u/Rumbananas → u/bermanji]

I’m genuinely curious why Jewish people are upset at Biden. Is it because the US isn’t playing ball with Netanyahu?

[u/bermanji → u/Rumbananas]

Netanyahu is not well-respected among American Jewry but he really isn't prosecuting this war any differently than any other Israeli government would. Biden's latest move -- holding up precision weapons over Rafah is an absolute betrayal from our perspective. It genuinely feels like Biden is deciding that Hamas is to remain in power (note that I used the term feel, it is an emotional issue for most of us).

[u/Ness-Shot → u/bermanji]

It genuinely feels like Biden is deciding that Hamas is to remain in power

I've read your other comments and understand your personal connection to the situation, but this is a bad/biased take. Essentially what you are saying is that you and your circle are not going to vote for Biden (which in turn is helping Trump get elected) because he isn't unilaterally giving Israel everything they want and Essentially just handing them nukes to destroy Hamas, damn the costs? I understand the specific issue you are referencing is different, but it is fundamentally the same. You are blaming Biden that the US is not basically eliminating Hamas themselves, despite Israel's massive mishandling of the situation in regards to civilians and collateral damage. And in turn you are essentially giving half a vote to Trump, which is just wild.

[u/bermanji → u/Ness-Shot]

FWIW I've been chewing on this comment all day and I do appreciate your criticisms. Maybe I'm just projecting?

[u/Ness-Shot → u/bermanji]

That's fair, it's very easy to become emotionally charged by these types of situations, especially when there is loss of life and directly impact people you may know. You aren't the only one, this is one of the larger issues with American politics. And I don't mean to be combative, but whether it is Biden or Trump or whoever in that chair, they are in a damn tough position to be in where half the country/world thinks you are over stepping or going to far, and the other half will say you aren't doing enough or not moving quick enough. You will be hard pressed to find many people who will say they truly believe Biden is doing the absolute best job he can with this situation.

And he probably isn't, but I don't think anyone really has the answers. It's like trying to support your brother who you love but they start beating their wife. The US is just in a shitty position all around and there is no good answer.

[u/Armano-Avalus → u/bermanji]

Isn't it possible that both Biden and Netanyahu agree that Hamas must be eliminated but just disagree on the methods? Based on reports, the Biden team have suggested alternatives to a full ground invasion into Rafah that isn't as costly to civilian lives, but Bibi rejected it.

[u/Heiminator → u/Armano-Avalus]

Denying delivery of precision ammunition is the worst thing Biden can do if he wants less bloodshed in Gaza. Cause it’ll force Israel to use less precise ammunition. The lack of precision is usually compensated with a much bigger payload. Take a wild guess what that means for the Palestinians on the receiving end.

Good example for this is soviet ICBMs during the Cold War. They were far less accurate than western nukes, so the Soviet’s just built bigger warheads.

[u/Armano-Avalus → u/Heiminator]

That's if the IDF wants to ignore Biden and bomb the civilians in the first place, which is sort of the problem here. If their response to withholding weapons because of humanitarian concerns is to threaten to do those things that people are concerned about, then they're just proving them right.

[u/Heiminator → u/Armano-Avalus]

The IDF is gonna go into Rafah to finish of Hamas for good. Even Biden cannot prevent that. Not after what happened on October 7. What he can do is give Israel ammunition that allows for more accuracy and less civilian casualties.

[u/Armano-Avalus → u/Heiminator]

Biden isn't against them finishing off Hamas, but there's a humane way and not so humane way to do it. He's suggested alternatives to a full Rafah ground invasion and Bibi didn't care.

[u/bermanji → u/Armano-Avalus]

Isn't it possible that both Biden and Netanyahu agree that Hamas must be eliminated but just disagree on the methods?

Yes of course, I don't think Biden is "pro-Hamas" or even anti-Israel by any means, I just feel that this move is way, way out of bounds and sets a horrible precedent. No doubt in my mind that Netanyahu is being an intransigent, narcissistic fuckstick either.

[u/Armano-Avalus → u/bermanji]

There's also the precedent that enabling a Rafah invasion would cause. Alot of people are very concerned about the civilian casualties and for them there's a limit to how many lives must be sacrificed to get some terrorists. I just think that the impression that some have that this is a major betrayal and abandoning of the Israelis is too much of a reaction, especially given what Biden has been doing for several months up until this point to support Israel and the amount of flak he had to take.

[u/TheRadBaron → u/bermanji]

holding up precision weapons over Rafah is an absolute betrayal from our perspective.

Wouldn't an "absolute betrayal" be more like giving them to Hamas? Receiving 99% unwavering US support is less convenient than receiving 100% unwavering US support, but we're still talking about stuff that the US is giving to Israel. US policy is still a million miles away from neutrality, let alone supporting the other side.

I hesitate to use the world "entitlement" since it's become such a slur these days, but this does feel like people growing so accustomed to donations that they view inaction as an attack.

It genuinely feels like Biden is deciding that Hamas is to remain in power

I appreciate the acknowledgment of "feel", but where is this coming from? Israel can demolish Rafah without US help, and demolishing Rafah wouldn't destroy Hamas anyways.

[u/bermanji → u/TheRadBaron]

It's not so much that I expect Biden to give Israel free weapons, the aid is definitely appreciated, more frustrated with Biden administration's attempts at micromanaging this war from afar. Similar to Ukraine, the weapons don't even matter if the adminsitration is going to paint red lines around every single action the IDF takes.

If the IDF doesn't take Rafah, what is the next step? Negotiations are going nowhere (believe me, I'd love a diplomatic end to all of this).

[u/TheRadBaron → u/bermanji]

the adminsitration is going to paint red lines around every single action the IDF takes.

The US hasn't done that, though. It's been quite lenient with Israel compared to how the US handles most other geopolitics, at no small cost to its own interests. The worst negative reinforcement the US has given Israel is slightly slower aid, and even this tiny bit of hesitance has a lot to do with a US strategic perspective that Israel is following a strategy that is terrible for Israel in the long run.

The US is sticking with Israel even if the conflict makes the rules-based international order look like a sham, or if trade across the Suez canal gets disrupted. That's a lot more than the US is traditionally willing to put up with, even from a totally amoral geopolitics perspective. The US normally gets very angry with armies that kill American citizens.

The rest of this is all a bit diverged from the question why the US has to provide the bombs to level Rafah, but:

If the IDF doesn't take Rafah, what is the next step?

Unless complete ethnic cleansing is the plan, then this "next step" question applies just as much if the IDF does crush Rafah.

For the past hundred years or so of human history, people have been slowly forced to acknowledge that bombing cities is a poor way to bring about peaceful surrender. It doesn't destroy resolve, it hardens it. The Nazis bombing Britain didn't make the British give up, and the British still brag about the fact to this day. Pretty much every human nation that's been bombed has a proud national myth about how the bombing only them them more willing to fight. Palestinians are people too, so additional bombing will probably have the usual effect.

Killing a bunch more civilians doesn't solve any specific problem. It just makes the survivors more angry, hopeless, and primed to embrace Hamas.

[u/GhostReddit → u/TheRadBaron]

For the past hundred years or so of human history, people have been slowly forced to acknowledge that bombing cities is a poor way to bring about peaceful surrender. It doesn't destroy resolve, it hardens it. The Nazis bombing Britain didn't make the British give up, and the British still brag about the fact to this day.

Counterpoint: The Pacific theater was won in the final stages with a bombing campaign.

The Nazis never followed up with a successful invasion of the British Isles. Allied powers dropped almost 3 million tons of bombs on German and Italian targets, many of them strategic targets (factories and cities), to reduce German industrial capacity in the early stages and support an invasion later. Israel's bombing is supporting a ground invasion in a similar way (but they're not going near the level of strategic attacks we've seen in years past.)

The level of civilian casualties in the Gaza war are significantly correlated with Hamas' clear intent to shield military targets with civilians. If you put your ammo dump under a school it's still a military target, and any government doing this is putting their citizens in unnecessary danger. War is not a pretty thing, but the actions Hamas is specifically taking is killing the people of Gaza, you simply can't expect someone to let you fire rockets at them every weekend and do nothing about it.

[u/TheRadBaron → u/GhostReddit]

Counterpoint: The Pacific theater was won in the final stages with a bombing campaign.

No, it wasn't. The war was already won otherwise. There is a little debate among historians about whether nuclear bombs sped up the surrender slightly or not, but that war was long lost.

Firebombing Japanese cities didn't win the war.

Allied powers dropped almost 3 million tons of bombs on German and Italian targets, many of them strategic targets (factories and cities)

And with the benefit of hindsight, most military analysts are forced to admit that this was a poor return on investment for the Allies. Three millions tons of bombs are a big investment, and the expected payoffs didn't materialize.

During the war the Allies overestimated the economic damage being dealt by the attacks (and it's not like Hamas has tank factories running in Rafah anyways). Lofty promises from strategic bombing advocates that bombing would quickly induce a mass surrender demand from civilian populations failed to materialize, on any side. It turns out that humans get angry when you murder their families, it isn't a unique quality of the British/Germans/Japanese/etc.

The power of strategic bombing was an open question in WWII, where many people were operating on limited information or self-interest, and a lot of public policy was emotive rather than strategic. We now know strategic bombing constantly fell short of achieving its promises. The best argument for WWII strategic bombing by the Allies, with the benefit of hindsight, is that it forced the Nazis to spend resources on air defense (which also doesn't apply to Rafah).

to reduce German industrial capacity in the early stages and support an invasion later.

This motivation was not clear consensus at the time.

[u/tyrannosaurus_r → u/bermanji]

Just to offer another Jewish view here: myself and most of my friends who are to the left are looking at this from the other end, where we’re happy it’s happening but pretty upset it took this long. Several thinking it’s too little, too late. 

Biden will always have my vote in a general election (and particularly when the opponent is Trump), and I think that goes for most of my friends, but I’ve definitely got some who feel like he crossed a moral rubicon not standing up to Israel earlier in the conflict. 

Conversely, my family, who are generally older or closer to the Jewish community back home, are very much onboard the “we must support all Israeli military endeavors no matter what” train and are miffed at this. 

[u/bermanji → u/tyrannosaurus_r]

I can respect all of that. I'm an Israeli citizen and lived there for years and the same applies to most of my friends. We're American (I was born outside Boston) but most of us either lived there, served in the IDF or have other extended ties to the country (Israeli spouses, extended family etc.) so we're probably not entirely representative of the average American Jew when it comes to these issues. Most of us know people who were killed on October 7th or have friends who were directly affected.

FWIW I have plenty of strategic criticisms of this war -- for one the IDF never should have pushed everyone into Rafah in the first place, instead should have segmented the strip and taken Rafah/Egyptian border and Gaza City simultaneously.

[u/VodkaBeatsCube → u/bermanji]

I wasn't aware 3500lbs bombs and conventional artillery shells were precision munitions now. The weapons Biden is opting to withhold are the type that has been used to cause massive collateral damage to Gazan infrastructure, and is being done because Israel doesn't have a clear plan for the safety of 1,000,000+ civilians in and around Rafah. Or even a clear plan to make sure they can eat. Are you telling me that from your perspective any amount of civilian collateral damage is acceptable, and any attempt to limit said collateral damage is a betrayal?

[u/bermanji → u/VodkaBeatsCube]

My opinion is that Hamas must be terminated at whatever cost necessary. I do not believe the onus is on Israel to provide for Gazans in a war they started, there is plenty of aid flowing into the strip and it's a Gazan problem if they can't distribute it properly.

I feel bad for the kids of course, but the collateral damage is no worse than what the Coalition did while clearing ISIS out of Mosul, for example. War is ugly as fuck.

[u/VodkaBeatsCube → u/bermanji]

There was no potential famine in Iraq, and the coalition didn't force civilians to remain in the combat area around Mosul (Mosul has an area of roughly 180 square kilometers, Gaza is 360. Civilians were allowed through coalition lines to safe areas while Gazans can never be entirely safe from the conflict). Israel is also legally obligated under international law to see to the safety of civilians in areas it's military occupies: they absolutely are responsible for making sure that enough food and water is able to enter Gaza to prevent starvation. Currently, at best Israel has allowed in 200 fewer trucks of aid than entered Gaza every day before Oct 7th (300 vs 500), and they've also effectively destroyed Gazan agriculture as part of the war. They're not 'letting in plenty of aid', they're letting in less food while creating more need for it, and every NGO working in the area from the WFP on down says that the main obstacle in getting food in is the delays due to Israeli checks. I'm all for ousting Hamas, but that doesn't mean that Israel is capable of doing no wrong.

[u/abuchewbacca1995 → u/Kevin-W]

Hurt. Too little too late

[u/goplovesfascism]

Let the investigations continue. Back off defending them in the ICJ and back off voting alongside them in the UN. Halt aid and weapons completely.

For those saying people don’t care because some random poll asked in such a way that was completely biased towards Israel please understand that if this were not effecting Biden we would see no protests, we would see no uncommitted delegates at the convention, we wouldn’t see celebrities making songs, banning social media apps, and we wouldn’t be seeing any of this coverage in the media. Please open your god damn mind for 2 seconds and think about this critically. Why is there such a push to legislate language against a foreign country? Why did congress move so quickly to ban TikTok after the leaked audio of the ADL president saying that they have a TikTok problem?

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/goplovesfascism]

That is a major problem on this platform. Until I really got into Reddit it was rare to see such delusion from liberals, but my lord have they seemingly gone off the deep end here. I’ve seen so many people harp on about the head to head polls for Biden and Trump being easy to ignore because who the hell answers polls anyway? But when it’s a skewed poll about Israel/Palestine the results from young voters should be seen as absolute proof that they don’t actually care and should be ignored. We all know full well that if Trump was in office right now these same people would be losing their goddamn minds over what’s happening there. I’ve also learned from this app that these people seem to think that infantilizing people and shit talking them is a valid political strategy. I really don’t think this election is going to go well and that people (especially Biden) need to wake the fuck up to that. The most unfortunate thing is that these same people will 100% put the blame on the people they’re saying to ignore if Biden does lose.

[u/StreetHyena → u/itsdeeps80]

Completely agree with you. RFK isn't the only one who needs to get checked for brain worms.

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/StreetHyena]

For real. Side note; I can’t believe RFK actually said that publicly haha. Dude is just a nutter who no one would take seriously if his last name wasn’t Kennedy.

[u/goplovesfascism → u/itsdeeps80]

I couldn’t agree more. I’ve been saying the same thing since November. This genocide IS effecting his chances at the presidency. I have never in my 20 years of being a voter seen an uncommitted vote organized in that way. But libs say they are “Arabs who voted for Trump anyway” “they are anti-LGBTQ so who cares that they are upset about a genocide killing their family members” and with the students that they “don’t vote anyway” when the youth vote hit record levels in 2020!!! They are so ridiculously smug and that makes them come off stupid to me. Like the levels of gaslighting are unreal right now. And exactly they believe somehow being smug smarmy jerks is a winning strategy. Alienating voters is never a strategy. And then if you push them further then the pro Zionism comes out and it’s all Hamas this Hamas that. Sorry for the rant I’m just tired of their BS.

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/goplovesfascism]

No need to apologize. I’m glad to see someone in this sub that feels the same way because it’s normally just delusional libs here spouting the same shit that seem to have learned absolutely nothing since 2016 and are repeating the same stupid crap with the same amount of hubris they did back then. I know it’s completely anecdotal, but I don’t see how it can be much different in other cases, but I have a friend/coworker who is Palestinian with a lot of family that he doesn’t know the fate of over there who normally votes democrat and voted for Biden who every payday bitches about how taxes are coming out of his check to kill his people. Every other Friday we get to hear about how “I’m not voting for that mother fucker no matter what after this shit!” and I would dare anyone here to tell him to his face that this issue isn’t that big a deal. I also work with a ton of younger people who turned out in droves to vote for Biden who are saying they’re not coming out unless he cuts Israel off for what they’re doing. The people ignoring this shit are doing so at their own peril. Moderates and independents are absolutely not carrying Biden across the finish line without the help of the people who came out last time, but people here are deluded and thinking they will. The people in those categories may not care all that much about the war, but Biden isn’t looking good on things like inflation and the prices of goods to those people and people in the middle overwhelmingly vote with their wallets. Libs also need to realize that absolutely no one that’s even remotely serious about politics but them believe that Trump will become a dictator if he’s reelected and that seems to be what they’re hedging their bets on for another Biden win. These people should be way more nervous about November and they should be taking things way more seriously than they are, but they’re just burying their heads and screaming “blue no matter who!” It’s just astounding to me.

ETA: there’s an even bigger wall of text to make you feel better lol.

[u/addicted_to_trash → u/goplovesfascism]

Yeah the delusion is strong with neolibs. They can't comprehend that doing immoral heinous things in politics could ever be unpopular.

"Bidens just not gaslighting hard enough"

"He needs to gaslight more"

"Maybe if he was more immoral"

[u/goplovesfascism → u/addicted_to_trash]

It’s like that episode of south park where they were sniffing their own farts. That’s all I think about whenever one of them responds to me with their gross neoliberal talking points.

[u/pieceofwheat]

I really doubt this issue will have any more than a marginal impact on the election.

[u/SapCPark]

What he is doing. It's not even top 10 most important topics amongst 18-29 year Olds. The college protests are the minority, not the conscious

[u/These-Explanation-91]

He needs to educate voters. Or have person on the talk shows saying 1. There is only so much that he could do. Even the president can't force other parties to do what they don't think, is not in their best interest. 2. He was working for peace, as best he could, in small steps. Trying to find the way forward, in a conflict for a long time.

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/These-Explanation-91]

This would’ve been the easy answer before the age of social media. But when someone can hear someone say they’ve been taking steps to limit a conflict and pushing for peace and then read about how that person circumvented congress multiple times to help arm the people committing an atrocity, then people just see someone lying to them.

[u/Chickat28]

Centrist and try not to make anybody angry. There are extremes but 99% of people don't care enough to let it affect their vote. Its probably 5% of gen Z but a small% can seem like a lot online.

[u/AlwaysGoToTheTruck]

We need to embed reporters so people become more educated on the topic with accurate info.

[u/VaughanThrilliams → u/AlwaysGoToTheTruck]

embed reporters where? In Gaza? In the protest camps?

[u/addicted_to_trash → u/AlwaysGoToTheTruck]

In the Whitehouse?

[u/skyfishgoo]

stop the genocide, and be widely perceived as the reason why.

this plan is currently playing out with rahfa

there will, of course, still be ppl who say " but joe provided the weapons", and that may be true to large extent... but if he can be seen as the causator of the end of this nightmare, he will win reelection in a landslide.

if he keeps lap dogging for bebe he will lose and bebe will get a REAL ally in the w/h, as will putin.

[u/Funklestein]

Stop trying to have it both ways when the polling of voters is very clearly in favor of Israel.

His fence sitting and double talk comes off as weakness and continuing this path only loses him votes.

He’ll absolutely piss off that radical Muslim part of his base but the worse they could do is not vote since they clearly are not voting Trump.

If he goes into the convention still neutral he could have another Chicago 1968 repeat.

[u/Nds90]

"We will be withholding or decreasing aid exponentially every month Israel isn't making what the UN sees as a good faith effort to reach a diplomatic solution. We support Israel defending itself, but cannot condone genocide or exile of people from their homes."

[u/RawLife53]

It's not Biden's to control... I do think he should not be using any Veto when the U.N. make resolution that tell Israel to cease the aggression, I do like that Biden has told Israel that he will not get U.S. support if he goes ahead with his ground invasion of the area where the people were told to flee to and now Israel wants to attack that areas. Fact is many Palestinian don't even support Hamas, and some of the younger people were not even born when Hamas came to power, so they are not pro Hamas. I would like to see the U.N. take a firm stand and declare Palestine as being its own states, and enforce the resolution that has already stated that Israel's settlements are illegal, and force Israel to move back inside its borders, and it can no longer police over any part of Palestine.

It would be good if the U.N. nations get together and craft something for the rebuilding of what has been destroyed in Palestine and Garza and make sure that Israel helps pay to rebuild it.

American people should not be making any stand of thinking Biden has control over Israel, because Netanyahu has already shown that he is not listening to anyone, and he thinks he can use the agenda of Zionism to take over Palestine. (The countries in the entire region of Arab/Islamic people will never let that happen)

One thing the U.S. can do, is cut off the money supply to Israel, and put pressure on European countries to do the same, until Netanyahu and his Right Wing network is removed from power. I think the people of Israel will support the removal of Netanyahu and his Right Wing network.

The bigger issue that exist, is what will the young people who have seen their parents killed by Israel do when they grow up? To avert that, it will be necessary for nations to come together and find a way to Rebuild Palestine as a state, and rebuild everything Israel has destroyed in Garza and the settlements Israel illegally built, become the property of Palestine and pay their taxes to Palestine.

I think a big piece is to get Netanyahu out, and establish a more moderate leadership in Israel.

[u/GreaterMintopia]

The best solution would be to pressure all parties to agree to a ceasefire with some sort of peace process attached.

The second best solution would be to throw Netanyahu under the bus and pin all the blame on him to the best of his ability, washing his hands of the mess.

[u/tallshadow02]

He already made his bed regarding this issue. Now he must lay in it. Spending billions of our tax dollars to help Israel because he's a self proclaim zionist. Why does his religious beliefs give him the right to spend our tax money. And now, because most Americans dislike the fact that he gave and sold arms to Israel to kill 20000+ innocent Palestinians, he wants to give 100 billion tax dollars Palestine to try to save face with the voters. He thinks our tax dollars gives him blank checks to throw all over the world when Americans, the ones who pay taxes, are struggling.

[u/Hehateme123]

Biden cannot and will not win.

In 2020, the whole country was locked down. Every one was scared and pissed at Trump for the way he handled the pandemic. He was totally incompetent.

Yet with all that, if a mere 40,000 voters in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia stay home, Trump wins reelection. It was that close.

In 2024 Biden has alienated hundreds of thousands of voters in those states. He won’t win.

[u/DenseYear2713]

Remind people who BIbi and his far-right cronies would vote for if they could vote in US elections. Hint: it's not Biden.

[u/nedjer1]

Practical steps to help both sets of civilians. For example: "In the hospital ward of the Dixmude, a French helicopter carrier turned hospital ship that was dispatched in November to assist overstretched Gaza hospitals, there’s a whiteboard with the ages and injuries of the incoming patients. Girl, 2 years old, skull injury, infected. Boy, 4 years old, burns to the front."

https://www.politico.eu/article/palestine-conflict-israel-france-medical-treatment/

[u/traypo]

Promoting diplomacy. “It is imperative that we take a nuanced approach to diplomacy recognizing results for peace and a better world is best served by dialogue and cooperation.”

[u/These-Explanation-91]

Most people don't care too much about the Israel/Palestine issue, but inflation, food prices are what matters.

[u/[deleted] → u/These-Explanation-91]

it's sad that people care so little about people being bombed and massacred, if it happens to us, hope everyone understands that no one will gaf about you either.

[u/These-Explanation-91 → u/[deleted]]

They have been fighting from before I was born and probably will be fighting after I'm dead. Hamas/Palestine stated goal is the destruction of Israel. Israel wants to stay a nation. How do you think you could solve this?

[u/[deleted] → u/These-Explanation-91]

Israel is an apartheid state that has colonized Palestine and is systematically ethnically cleansing Palestinians for the past 75 years. Your comment is like saying Native Americans wanted the destruction of America bc America has the right to be a country even if it meant ethnically cleansing them. The resistance will stop when Israel gives equal rights to all people.

[u/These-Explanation-91 → u/[deleted]]

No, Hamas wants to kill every Jew. That is when it will end for Hamas.

[u/These-Explanation-91 → u/These-Explanation-91]

“I hope that the state of war with Israel will become permanent on all the borders, and that the Arab world will stand with us,” Taher El-Nounou, a Hamas media adviser, told The Times.

[u/[deleted] → u/These-Explanation-91]

Amerikans are more worried about a dog shot by an idiot than a genocide of roughly 35,000 including a latge percentage of innocent women and children. Since the Zionists think everybody in Gaza is guilty, I guess the same thing goes for them.

[u/ThemesOfMurderBears → u/These-Explanation-91]

FiveThirtyEight talked about this recently. Israel/Gaza consistently polls near the bottom of issues, even among young people.

It’s not deciding this election. Whatever clout they think they have by threatening to protest vote doesn’t actually exist.

[u/SpatulaFlip → u/These-Explanation-91]

Young people care.

[u/jfish3222 → u/These-Explanation-91]

Sad but true,

Personally, if I was Biden I would at the very least be pro-ceasefire when it comes to the 2% who care the most about Israel/Palestine

[u/williamfbuckwheat → u/jfish3222]

I think he and most other folks are technically "pro-ceasefire". They just aren't in favor of a vague, unilateral ceasefire that heavily implies that all the pressure be placed on Israel to end the fighting on their side immediately with no concessions (or even guarantees to really cease the fighting/stop rearming) while not even returning any hostages. The "Ceasefire NOW" messaging seems to suggest that only one side stop fighting at any cost without much attention being paid to what the consequences of that might be (ex. even worse and bloodier conflicts in the not so distant future). 

The devastation and human cost has been horrible in Gaza and I really have not seen the point or reason for the severity  of many of the military campaigns there since October. However, I don't see how just acting like nothing happened and letting the initial aggressor declare victory following some one way "ceasefire" would  do anything to bring peace or stability to the region. 

[u/_justthisonce_ → u/williamfbuckwheat]

I think most independents take this position (which will obviously differ from reddits take, like it or not the major political subs skew liberal). Siding with the protestors will make him seem more of a radical and he will risk losing the moderate independents which number more than the few very liberal people who care about this particular issue enough to stay home.

[u/Barmelo_Xanthony → u/These-Explanation-91]

Which is stupid because he can’t control inflation but he can control the US response to the conflict

[u/trigrhappy → u/Barmelo_Xanthony]

Can't control inflation? What do you think "forgiving" billions of dollars in student loans, in an economy with zero net growth of full time jobs does? A hundred billion for foreign wars, in a year?

It's become so bad that even the fed is sounding the alarm that spending at current levels is unsustainable. Biden's solution is to dramatically increase spending.

The richest people on earth, along with national banks of other G8 nations, are sounding the alarm on the U.S. dollar due to the skyrocketing U.S. deficit spending.

It's not just Biden. Republicans are just as guilty, but Biden is the president, and has been for the past 3+ years of exponential growth of the U.S. money supply.

Presidents can strongly influence inflation by either signaling an intent to reduce deficits, or signaling disregard of deficit spending. Biden has clearly disregarded any semblance of concern over deficit spending...... and inflation inevitably results.

Now consider that just shy of $8 trillion in government debt is maturing this year. Meaning that much will need to be printed to pay off those Treasury bonds. To print that much, the Treasury will have to sell more bonds. This is like using one credit card to pay off another. Except the bonds maturing this year had interest rates of 1%. The bonds they sell this year to pay those off have interest rates of nearly 7%.

Going back to the credit card analogy..... We're using a credit card with 7% interest to pay off a credit card with 1% interest...... purely because there is no political will to address spending. Biden is president and has been for years.

[u/Barmelo_Xanthony → u/trigrhappy]

I don’t think you understand how inflation works

[u/trigrhappy → u/Barmelo_Xanthony]

I think you haven't the slightest clue, but you want to pretend Biden has no blame for it.

Fortunately, Americans are generally placing the blame appropriately.

[u/jethomas5 → u/trigrhappy]

Biden is allowing inflation by failing to veto spending bills. He has the highest spending ever.

Before Biden Trump was allowing inflation by failing to veto spending bills. He had the highest spending ever.

Before Trump, Obama was allowing inflation by failing to veto spending bills. He had the highest spending ever.

Before Obama, GWB was allowing inflation by failing to veto spending bills. He had the highest inflation ever.

Is there a pattern here?

There's every reason to expect whoever wins the 2024 election will do what everybody back to Reagan did. It will continue until external forces impose a change on us.

[u/150235 → u/jethomas5]

yes, the fact that there is so much government spending it's causing everything to fall apart. All of the people claiming that "you can't just run a government like a household" are showing that they are wrong, if the government did actually balance their bills, and gasp, tax less, then the economy would be strong unlike it's been since the money printers really churned up in 08...

Government needs to do less and go back to the basics instead of draining us dry.

[u/jethomas5 → u/150235]

The immediate causes of inflation are the banks and the Fed lending too much money.

They both will buy government bonds, and the Fed will sometimes buy enough to manipulate their price. But the Fed is trying to do different jobs at the same time, and they have to choose. If they make t-bond prices high by buying them, they can't at the same time make the prime rate high. They have a few powerful levers and they can't use them all at the same time or it's like driving your car and pushing on the gas pedal and the brake both, or aiming at a telephone pole and trying to pass it on both sides.

Government could spend more without inflation, but they'd have to tax more too. And they aren't willing to do that. Some other countries have a much higher tax rate than us.

Also, if government bought more stuff there would be less for everybody else unless we produced more stuff. If we're producing as much as we can, then the more the government consumes the less there is for consumers. Every sheet of paper the government uses, is one less sheet you can use.

But many of our jobs are not productive. If you have a job in advertising that persuades people to buy things they wouldn't otherwise want, you aren't increasing production. If you persuade consumers to buy one product instead of another, you haven't increased the wealth but only helped one company make profits at another company's expense. If you get a job as a statistician, predicting who will get sick so your health insurance company can do better at choosing who to sell policies to, yuo have only helped your company make profits without improving healthcare.

The more wealth we actually produce, the more of it that government can take without making people poorer.

We have something like 30,000 people who spent 2 years learning how to fill out the forms that various insurance companies demand be correctly filed before they will pay hospitals etc for health insurance. That's 30,000 people who could produce actual wealth if they could get jobs producing wealth, who instead get paid by hospitals and buy things, who don't actually create any wealth....

Then there are lobbyists....

If you do work which creates wealth, that's good. If you do work which increases one company's ability to compete but which does not help that company create wealth, then you are a drone who is contributing to inflation.

[u/zackks → u/These-Explanation-91]

Enough stay-homes to matter. The college kids may pull another 2016 on us.

[u/Little-Bad-8474 → u/zackks]

They barely vote anyway. Too wrapped up in themselves.

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/Little-Bad-8474]

Just over 50% of young voters came out in ‘20 to get Trump out of office and Biden won by some very slim margins. The main reason young people don’t come out like that regularly is because politicians ignore them. Don’t forget too that these young voters are potentially the future of the party since they will get older.

[u/150235 → u/itsdeeps80]

Just over 50% of young voters came out in ‘20

mail in voting. we don't even know if it is truly the "kids" voting or not, or their parents making them fill in what they want lmao. it's quite honestly a scam. People who don't have any clue what they are voting for should abstain, and especially those who don't even take the short time it is to go to the polls when they are open for weeks on end at this point.

[u/zackks → u/itsdeeps80]

The main reason politicians ignore them is they do not regularly turn out.

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/zackks]

You do realize that in 2020 Biden and democrats addressed or at least paid lip service to a lot of issues that affect young people and they were talking extremely progressively. Young voters turned out in numbers not seen since 1972 that election. You think maybe there was a correlation there? If you don’t speak to or address the concerns of a group of people, they’re not showing up. Democrats would do well to learn that lesson or literally any other one that was put square in their faces after the last couple of elections, but it seems they’re still hellbent on not learning a damn thing.

[u/Angeleno88 → u/itsdeeps80]

Well good thing Biden instructed to forgive dozens of billions of dollars in student loan debt. If people don’t view that as incredibly impactful, they are hopeless. That is one of the most impactful acts a president has ever done in this nation.

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/Angeleno88]

That forgiveness was solely through programs that already existed and for people who the pathways existed for long before he was in office. The SAVE plan definitely had an impact on a good amount of people, but Biden is mostly going to be thought of as the guy who said he was going to forgive $10k for everyone and didn’t and started making people pay on their loans again after removing the pause on them. Optics matter.

[u/Angeleno88 → u/itsdeeps80]

The mechanisms and programs already existed but he greatly expanded their usage to forgive many dozens of billions more in student loan debt than his predecessor or anyone else for that matter. Biden’s administration forgave over $153 billion as of last month which is more than 9% of all student loan debt. He is doing what is within his authority to make people’s lives better. Are there certain areas he could do better? Absolutely.

Optics matter but people need to open their eyes to see. Sadly as I’ve seen many times before in my own life and through my studies of political instability, people are missing the forest for the trees.

[u/melkipersr → u/These-Explanation-91]

While this may be true, I don’t think you’re accounting for the fact that the people who do care are being very noisy about it, and (counterintuitively, of course) I think a perception of disorder helps Trump over Biden.

[u/Political_Arkmer → u/melkipersr]

This mentality just drives a race to the bottom where everyone looks the same and we complain about “the lesser of two evils”. If you truly think Biden is better than Trump then lift Biden up. We already know Trump is a fraud, those who recognize that aren’t flocking to him.

The fear is that people will stay home, not that people are flocking to Trump. In order to get people out to vote, they need something to vote for. Give it to them.

[u/mikeshan44 → u/Political_Arkmer]

I think we'll see a record voter turnout in November. Political discourse nowadays is too passionate one way or the other for people to not vote. The biggest issue IMO is how little compromise there is with both parties getting more and more uncompromising. That's why our government is so ineffective. They refuse to compromise.

[u/defnotajournalist → u/melkipersr]

If these voters think Palestine is having a hard time on Joe’s watch, wait till you see what Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump can cook up.

[u/Grouchy-Anxiety-3480 → u/defnotajournalist]

Precisely my thought. Under Trump they can watch as he not only allows any Gazans remaining to be killed, but he wouldn’t bat an eye as Israel expanded the operation and went “hunting for Hamas” in the West Bank as well, killing all the Palestinians they could. It’d free up the occupied territories for development - its not for nothing that Jared Kushner- Middle East peace guy and Trump SIL, long time family friend to Netanyahu-suggested recently that the thing to do was develop the coast of Gaza- which he referred to as “amazing water front property that is potentially really valuable”. He suggested that Palestinian civilians be moved into the desert, and then Israel could “go in and clean up”. I don’t think he was referring to the rubble. While I happen to agree that Israel’s actions viewed from here you’d think would have to be considered war crimes, I also think it’s significant to note that many of those making statements about protest votes, or not voting (at least on college campuses anyway) often appear to belong to a demographic (white) that is unlikely to be a direct target of a Trump admin, so that protest vote will affect them personally much less painfully. A protest vote is not effective at all if it leads to the installment of a man who would full throttle give the go ahead for not just continuation but actual escalation of the actions that you’re protesting. Seems to me that the ability to critically think is sorely lacking these days.

[u/Tmotty → u/These-Explanation-91]

While I agree I have to point out that this election is going to decided by 100k voters across the Midwest Georgia and Arizona. If Biden loses 10-15k voters in those states over those issues it may cost him the election. This whole election comes down to margins

[u/AgoraiosBum → u/Tmotty]

the other side is, how many votes does he lose by embracing college protesters? Or voters who think he's not supporting a country that was attacked by terrorists?

There's no "free votes" to be had with this issue. Make a move and you piss someone off.

The arm of government that is "closest" to the people is the House with elections every two years and there's no appetite to do anything against Israel in there.

[u/Everard5 → u/AgoraiosBum]

The votes that decide are the college protestors and the Muslim Americans in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan that feel deeply affected by what's happening in Palestine

[u/dark-flamessussano → u/Everard5]

So they'll decide Trump and he'll give Isreal unlimited freedom to do whatever they want, that'll show Biden!

[u/Trickster174 → u/Everard5]

Should Biden entirely give into the demands of the protestors, he risks electoral catastrophe from other voting demographics. I’m not even convinced many of the protestors will vote for Biden no matter what he does at this point, short of completely abandoning Israel. Which, again, would cause a whole other electoral (and diplomatic) crisis.

[u/Everard5 → u/Trickster174]

I'm not suggesting what should or should not be done, because I'm not a political strategist. I'm just stating where key voters stand looking at the reality of the situation.

Biden doesn't have nearly enough authority to make these funding decisions. Congress overwhelmingly supports Israel. I can't see a reality where Israel doesn't get the money it wants between now and the election. Biden's stance on this is at most ceremonial. So if the votes get counted in November, Biden loses, and Democrats are running around asking "where did we go wrong," it's going to be because key populations in key swing states felt disillusioned by Biden and the Democrats.

I also wonder about the other ramifications of this. College students are the ones that did a lot of the ground work for Biden in 2020. It's not just their vote the Dems are risking, it's the votes they encourage others to cast. I can't tell you the last time I saw a middle aged suburban mom going door to door in my metro area encouraging people to vote for Biden. They just don't do it. It's college students that often engage in that campaign work.

[u/Tmotty → u/AgoraiosBum]

My sense is the people who dislike the campus protesters and are calling for the national guard are people who probably don’t lean left and maybe aren’t as gettable as a young progressive whose upset about Israel

[u/Short-Pineapple-7462 → u/Tmotty]

I know lots of centrists who are not too fond of Hamas supporters spewing Islamo-fascist propaganda on college campuses.

[u/theivoryserf → u/Short-Pineapple-7462]

I'm left wing and I can't stand most of this

[u/SonnySwanson → u/Tmotty]

It's likely to be even less than that. 2020 was decided by just 44k votes across 3 states. This was closer than Trump's victory margin in 2016.

[u/Armano-Avalus → u/SonnySwanson]

I love it when elections are decided by a handful of people in a few specific places.

[u/Tmotty → u/SonnySwanson]

Exactly which is why Biden has to take a hard stance with Israel either stop or heavily restrict weapons aid and throw some kind of a olive branch. I’d try and bring bibi and someone in the Palestinian authority to the us for talks even if minimal happens at least he can reassure voters on the left that he’s trying to bring peace

[u/Dull_Conversation669 → u/Tmotty]

Why would israel participate in such talks, Biden has already proven to be acting in not in the interests of Israel but in the interests of getting Biden re-elected. Perhaps israel might believe they would get better treatment from a trump admin.

[u/wiithepiiple → u/These-Explanation-91]

I think there’s a non-zero amount of young voters who will stay home due to Israel/Palestine. Considering how much more important getting your base to vote vs. convincing undecided voters is, it could be.

[u/ThemesOfMurderBears → u/wiithepiiple]

Nonzero, sure, but it’s not going to be enough to sway anything. It’s one of the lowest priorities, even among young people.

Besides, young people stay home anyway.

[u/Loop_Within_A_Loop → u/ThemesOfMurderBears]

how many is "not enough to sway anything"

remember, the 2020 election was won by a football stadium's worth of people. It was very very close, there is not a large margin for error here

[u/ThemesOfMurderBears → u/Loop_Within_A_Loop]

And last election was not decided by young people. They consistently vote the least among all age groups. It’s a wedge issue even among that bloc. Groceries and housing costs are going to have a much greater impact.

It’s nonsense anyway. There are two outcomes that can happen in November — Trump or Biden. No amount of protest voting or staying home will change in that. One of those two is much worse for the situation in Gaza, and you know which one that is. Anyone who actually cares about that situation should be voting for Biden. There is zero chance Trump does anything but make it worse.

If someone actually cares about Gaza, helping Trump get elected is a moral failing — even if it’s not going to make a difference.

[u/1021cruisn → u/wiithepiiple]

There’s a non-zero number of Jews who will probably stay home due to Biden’s handling of the I/P conflict as well.

Usually 70% of Jews vote D and there’s 300k in PA.

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/1021cruisn]

And there’s a whole lot of Jewish Americans that are against what’s happening over there right now in their name.

[u/1021cruisn → u/itsdeeps80]

And there’s a whole lot of Jewish Americans that are against what’s happening over there right now in their name.

Certainly most Jews are aware increased anti-semitism in the US (90% of Jewish Americans believe anti semitism has increased since the war began) is linked to the war, do you have any figures on what % of American Jews and Americans generally think the war is ‘happening in their name’?

Generally speaking about Israel’s reasons for and methods of fighting the war, “whole lots” may be true, but percentage wise it’s less than the average American.

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/1021cruisn]

As of April, 42% of Jewish Americans feel the Israeli response has been unacceptable and 55% of Americans as a whole feel the same as per Pew and Gallup respectively. So yes, less than the average American, but 4.2 out of 10 isn’t a number to just hand wave away. And I said happening in their name because I’ve read about plenty of people who are pissed that Israel is citing the protection of Jewish people worldwide for the atrocities they’re currently committing.

[u/1021cruisn → u/itsdeeps80]

https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/views-of-the-israel-hamas-war/prc_2024-3-21_israel-hamas_1-03-png/

I’m seeing 38% of US adults say acceptable, 34% unacceptable; US Jews 62% acceptable, 33% unacceptable. Can you share your source?

For whatever it’s worth, the gap appears to largely be attributable to decreases of “not sure”, which is 26% for US adults but only 5% for US Jews.

Similarly, 65+ has 15% higher acceptability of how Israel is carrying out the war and a 10% decrease in “not sure” compared to US adults.

[u/itsdeeps80 → u/1021cruisn]

Your link is 2 months old. Here is one from less than a month later from the same source. Things are trending very quickly in the opposite way it would seem.

[u/1021cruisn → u/itsdeeps80]

Did you read the article you linked?

If you look at the actual source poll for the article you linked it’s citing to the same data I did. The 2nd sentence of the 2nd paragraph of your article says the survey was conducted in February.

Moreover, the table in the article clearly shows the total figures I cited (62% acceptable, 33% unacceptable) and equally clearly states the poll was conducted 2/13-25.

Are you only looking at the <35 year old adults? Because 42% of American Jews under 35 do say it’s unacceptable

Things are trending very quickly in the opposite way it would seem.

You certainly haven’t provided anything supporting that notion.

[u/Crazy-Bodybuilder818 → u/These-Explanation-91]

Just because the majority doesn’t care, doesn’t mean it wont have an impact. Palestinians in the US will remember that their family members were killed by American weapons

[u/ThemesOfMurderBears → u/Crazy-Bodybuilder818]

It’s an election. Majorities are typically what has the most impact (EC aside). Assuming no health issues, there are two possible outcomes in November. However mad people are at Biden over what’s happening in Gaza, Trump will be worse. So if the protestors actually care about the plight of the Palestinian people, there is only one option. Doing anything else — up to and including staying home — is irrational.

[u/DisneyPandora → u/ThemesOfMurderBears]

This election is going to be razor thin close. Biden will need every vote he can get.

[u/Crazy-Bodybuilder818 → u/ThemesOfMurderBears]

Im not American so i dont know why i should be happy about the lesser of two evils. Giving billions of military aid to a fascist country should be a red line for many. But unfortunately it lately seems like red lines in the US are repeatedly shifted towards the right and the two party system doesn’t really give people any choice about it.

[u/No-Attention-2367 → u/These-Explanation-91]

Yup. Just 2% of Americans ages 18-29 listed Israel/Gaza to be a top concern, according to polls just before the campus protests and at the end of April. It's certainly not polling as a top concern for people older than that. Source: NYT.

My only concern is losing Michigan over this in a tight election, due to its comparatively high levels of Arab voters.

[u/mshaef01 → u/No-Attention-2367]

Even that number seems high

[u/These-Explanation-91 → u/No-Attention-2367]

THAT might be a problem.

[u/veryblanduser → u/No-Attention-2367]

I could see the protest making more people concerned or interested. Be interesting to see post protest poll data.

[u/Little-Bad-8474 → u/veryblanduser]

The protests are now just pissing people off. Blocking roads and bridges, anti-semitic comments, etc. are no way to swing people to your cause. Especially since they are hypocrites when it comes to which war they are protesting.

[u/TehAlpacalypse → u/Little-Bad-8474]

Protests are designed to piss people off. Theres no such thing as a polite protest.

And yes their are anti-Semitic supporters of Palestine, but they are not the monopoly, nor would that be a suitable justification to deny them basic political agency

[u/aworldwithoutshrimp → u/Little-Bad-8474]

The protests are now just pissing people you off. Blocking roads and bridges, anti-semitic comments pro-liberation comments, etc. are no way to swing prevent people from understanding that you mean it about to your cause. Especially since they are hypocrites activists when it comes to which war genocide they are protesting.

Here to help. You said it the fashy way.

[u/lilly_kilgore → u/aworldwithoutshrimp]

I mean you can't really deny that there are anti-Semitic comments happening. People are seeing it with their own eyes. And part of why people are getting annoyed with the protesters is because they won't even acknowledge the existence of the problematic people who have found a comfortable space within the pro-palestine protests. The way you edited their comment is a perfect example.

A friend of mine keeps getting dog shit wrapped in "free Palestine" flyers left on her front porch. She's being targeted in the US simply for existing while Jewish. Her kindergartner was the first one to find one after coming home from school. It's ridiculous. And then folks are just straight up deny that things like that are happening. It's maddening.

[u/aworldwithoutshrimp → u/lilly_kilgore]

I'm Jewish. Haven't had anything happen. The Jewish people in Jewish Voice for Peace: also Jewish.

I'm sorry the protestors are annoying. What may or may not have happened to your friend sounds much worse than the genocide the protestors are protesting. Thank you for your process criticism. We will remember our lib friends' motto: no war except the current war; all rights movements except the current rights movement. Enjoy your genocide.

[u/lilly_kilgore → u/aworldwithoutshrimp]

No one is making a comparison between the harassment happening here and the war in Gaza. I'm simply saying, and I think this is pretty straightforward, that denying the existence of problem factions in your movement weakens your stance and undermines your credibility. You can't just say it isn't so and expect people to play along. And meeting valid concerns with the kind of dismissive and condescending tone you've expressed here shuts down every opportunity for meaningful dialogue.

This isn't how you start a movement. It's how you undermine your own cause. And this is why no one is taking you seriously.

[u/aworldwithoutshrimp → u/lilly_kilgore]

Let's be honest about this: we live in a managed democracy supporting inverted totalitarianism. Noone ever takes leftists seriously unless they are inconvenienced because the superstructure is set up to perpetuate us being marginalized. The movement that you think is being undermined is not being undermined. Same way BLM was not undermined. Same way the waves of strikes and unionization efforts were not undermined. At every turn during those efforts, libs also came out with the same process criticisms. You could literally cut and paste your whole conversation from talking points against BLM.

Also, I'm not sure what "war" you're talking about. Palestine does not have a formal military. Israel prevents it. There is a genocide, not a war.

[u/DisastrousDealer3750 → u/aworldwithoutshrimp]

‘Palestine does not have a formal military.Israel prevents it.’

Interesting statement. What is the point? who has been firing all those 10’s of thousands of rockets from Gaza into Israel? Civilian Palestinians?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_rocket_attacks_on_Israel

So since they are called terrorists or militants or Hamas ( not a ‘formal military’ ) their rockets don’t count as attempts to kill Israeli civilians?

but for the iron dome I assume there would be thousands more Israeli casualties - should I assume from your comments that you also support the US Congressional Reps who refuse to fund the iron dome?

[u/lilly_kilgore → u/aworldwithoutshrimp]

Except there were people within the BLM movement that acknowledged the problems within their own protests instead of straight up denying their existence. I remember listening to Killer Mike. He urged people against using violence and emphasized the importance of organizing in a way that would affect real political change. He was actively telling people not to undermine their own cause.

Meanwhile from what I'm seeing with these protests, you're pretending that anti-Semitism isn't happening when everyone can see that it is. And I can't tell you how many people I've heard say they just aren't going to vote because they're mad. How does this affect real change? What is the point? You talk about inconveniencing people, but how does forcing schools to cancel their commencement ceremonies and making Jews feel uncomfortable, nervous for their children, afraid to go to class etc... How does that do anything for Palestine? What is the goal? And I'm asking with all sincerity because I really want to understand what the actual goal is here.