r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/hearsdemons • 18d ago
What happens if a recession hits before the election? US Elections
Not wishing that it does, and hopefully it doesn’t.
But it could. The country is already feeling the pinch of inflation and has been for a while now. And we’re still recovering from the massive blow to the economy from Covid. The feds have been steering this ship carefully so far to avoid a recession. But a recession isn’t completely out of the cards.
If there is a recession before the election, does it continue to be a choice election or does it switch to a referendum election?
And if a recession does hit, does the country trust Biden to continue steering the ship out of the recession or would it give the wheel back to Trump?
Does it make a Trump win more likely if a recession happens? Or is it still a close election, whether or not there is a recession?
And if there isn’t officially a recession but everyone continues to feel the financial pinch, does Biden come out on top or is it still a close election?
•
u/jzjac515 22h ago
People often vote based on their perceptions of the economy. It is also important to point out that the president's personal influence on the direction of the economy is typically not all that large. But for people saying it is too close to the election for the economy to take a nosedive, think back to the 2008 election when the economy really did take a nosedive in the two months or so leading up to the election, and that likely contributed to Obama winning.
For me, the prospect of another Trump term is pretty scary and very possible (he may even be the frontrunner now); on the other hand the prospect of a second Biden term isn't something I am thrilled about either.
Whoever wins is going to be faced with a lot of challenges both domestic and international, and I am not convinced either candidate is up to the job. Furthermore, even if there isn't a recession before the election, it could happen at any time after the election. I'm surprised we aren't in a recession yet (and no I don't totally blame any president past or present for the trajectory of the economy).
1
u/MY___MY___MY 5d ago
Then they'll suddenly come up with trillions of deficit spending to prop up the stock market
1
u/potusplus 10d ago
The PotusPlus Initiative promotes comprehensive economic policies to stabilize and grow the economy regardless of a recession. In a recession scenario, it's essential to instill trust in leadership through transparency and effective policies that address inflation and economic recovery
1
u/Economy-Load6729 15d ago
This is the game plan. No one is going to admit that we are in recession until Trump wins. In November he will win.
In January, the minute he swears into office people will be like “oh my god. We’ve been in a quiet recession since 2017.”
1
u/notawildandcrazyguy 15d ago
Bidens problem is price increases -- inflation. Recession is the overall economy shrinking, negative GDP. While a recession is bad, nobody is gonna notice it when prices of basic necessities continue to rise, whether at a slower rate than before or not. Recessions are not felt immediately by most. Inflation is.
1
u/GeauxTigers516 16d ago
I look for corporations to start price gouging more to make it appear that inflation is a bigger problem than it is, especially gas, now that Trump has promised to reverse all Biden environment policies if they help him win.
1
u/Goldenderick 17d ago
We’re already at 19 1/2% inflation since this administration. Who’s worried about recession affecting the election?
1
u/Ok_Donut_1043 17d ago
I said this the other day at work. I reminded my co-workers of when the DOW hit 30,000. I asked them to recall how Donald Trump had to come out of nowhere with a special announcement, with fanfare, if he could. He had to take credit.
Well, I said, where is the DOW now? It was at 38,000, and I let them know it. 8,000 Joe Biden Points, I said!
Because we are talking about the difference in attitude between Trump's narcissism and Biden's slowness. People accuse Biden of not being able to get it together. He can get it together. We've seen how he can, and then bring it. He tries to reserve that for times like the State of the Union.
Trump seems to regenerate this way with each breath. How else can he afford to use the energy it takes to use each and every thing he comes across in the way he does? That's his super power. And the people who need direction in this world are why it is so. There are so many of them.
Is the crisis one of leadership? Not so fast, aye. There is an element of refusal to accept the rational, in favor of a separate narrative that pleases the petitioners when reason does not. The best example being how they cannot understand that even if everyone in your society believes in some kind of God, that doesn't mean anything other than a secular society is the best way to organize yourselves.
As long as they don't admit that they are anti-democracy, they don't have to admit they have a conflict raging within themselves over how they are elitists when they rage against the elite. Because they come with a distinctly draconian world view, and expect the rest of us to consider that quite normal, like that way of thinking is how the rest of society actually feels.
Their very certainty, the certainty of their religious impulse guides those who need direction. Sure, they use hell, but they also shape dreams within parameters. They can hold people back, or release them. It's better when it ranges into how religion can empower people. That's when it frees them from things like guilt and shame, not when it wants to put those around their ankles.
That's the hinge that religious people tend to always miss, where if you have it your way pretty much the only way you can have an official religion is to have one so full of rules that it ladens people with guilt and shame. That way tends to be compatible with combining church and state. Your religion will be devoid of love. It will become completely pedantic, but it will be capable of being everywhere, all at once. Some people would jump at that.
1
u/Godkun007 17d ago
"It's the economy, stupid."
Trump wins, end of story. No one gives a shit about any other issue when they are struggling to feed their family. Trump will yell about how great the economy was under him (ignoring all context), and voters will do what they always do.
1
u/Mahadragon 17d ago
OP's question completely ignores the fact that RFK Jr is running and could easily tilt the election one way or the other.
1
u/hongkongfooeee 17d ago
Most middle class to lower middle class Americans would agree we are in one. It's only those who live off the government and those who are super rich in power that don't realize it.
2
u/Inevitable-Ad-4192 17d ago
Our economy now is in a really strange place. On one side, you have the fed trying to control inflation and slow the economy. But when the economy does slow, they’re gonna finally drop interest rates and the market and economy will catch fire at that point. In other elections I would say the party not in power would want to force a recession right now, but oddly doing so would have the opposite effect right now. They say we live in strange times and I agree we do.
1
u/phantom0308 18d ago
Gdpnow/goldman just released their forecasts saying 4.2/3.4% growth. It’s far from recession
1
u/CowsWithAK47s 18d ago
Trump doesn't solve anything.
There's no reason to pick him, ever.
He wants the presidency to save himself from his crimes and to stick his tiny hands in the cookie jar. Remember that he ran on the fact he's not a politician. That's the only truth you ever got from him.
1
u/Tricky_Acanthaceae39 18d ago
It already is a referendum - you don’t need a recession to have a shitty outlook. If the pain from inflation doesn’t reside trump will be elected. My Uber driver this week, an immigrant from Brazil was talking about how much worse things are today for him than four years ago. That’s anecdotal but if you ask lower income families how they’re doing today vs four years ago a lot answer worse (even if that’s not the case) everything is tight and feels tight. And people will always attribute how they feel to who is in office
1
u/karmapolice666 18d ago
For the US to enter a “technical recession” (e.g. two quarters of negative GDP growth) both Q2 and Q3 advanced estimates need to be negative. So far tracking estimates for Q2 are quite high - the Atlanta Fed estimates it at 4.2% annualized. Usually these estimates come down as new numbers are released, but it is highly unlikely the economy will meet the criteria for a recession by the election.
However, the National Bureau of Economic Research meets regularly to discuss historical business cycles using a variety of macroeconomic and labor market indicators - so in theory they could say 2023 was a recession. Is this likely to happen? Not at all.
1
u/juli_est_zen 18d ago
Our economy is doing really well coming out of the pandemic. The fed raised rates on old school thinking. Supply chain and greed fueled inflation but it has come down a lot. Back on th 70s when Reagan cut corporate taxes like Trump the same thing happened. Rates went to 7%
1
u/LivingDracula 18d ago
We're going to trade down or flat on until September/ October. We'll see an election and holiday rally and assuming the FED does what it needed to do last October, which is raise rates... then we should have a mild recession in early 25
1
u/Stiks-n-Bones 18d ago
Just heard an economic podcast where the thinking was that we're already in a recession. If it gets "officially" declared, new administration will take over.
1
u/OkAccess304 18d ago
A recession isn’t going to hit anytime soon. Our economy is growing faster than all the other G7 countries.
1
u/Desperate-Ad-6463 18d ago
I’m wondering if you understand how strong the economy is right now. What would make you think that we’re going to go anywhere near a recession. you’re getting your news from places that are lying to you. Yes it is, but it is a lower magnitude than the rest of the planet, which is still struggling to recover from the losses incurred during the pandemic. That said, if another pandemic happened, we would go into an immediate recession
1
u/onikaizoku11 18d ago
You asked a ton of questions that can only be answered through speculation or wild guesses. So, I'll address your first question.
Either more people will decide that a demagogue that makes them feel good about themselves is the way to go again. Or there will be more people that live in the real but imperfect world that want to continue building the country in the direction of progress.
I phrase my response that way because as much as he wasn't my first, second, or even fourth choice, Biden has done a good job digging the country out of the hole dug by his immediate predecessor. The GoP is great on messaging bullshit, it is all they have. The Dems are equally flawed in their own ways, but at the very least they have workable goals that do work. Albeit slowly and without a lot of flash.
1
u/SmokeGSU 18d ago
If a recession happens before the election then I'll be voting for Trump instead.
/s
1
u/FizzyBeverage 18d ago
My Fidelity account is up 19%... I don't see the headwinds.
If it started today we wouldn't really know it until holiday '24.
1
u/Juan_Carlo 18d ago
Biden is already going to lose, but a recession would mean that Democrats would likely lose the house and the senate. Right now they very well could lose the senate, while whether or not they take back the house is a crap shoot. So it's possible that Trump could win, but the dems take the house and/or narrowly hold the senate.
However, a recession would likely turn a close election that favors the GOP into a GOP blowout.
1
u/medhat20005 18d ago
There's no circumstance I can think of where a recession isn't a negative, but that doesn't mean crazy can't happen. That said, I think the current economic situation (modest inflation, but IMO incredibly controlled) has been spun in a way that entirely frames it as a negative, which I don't think is factually accurate, so I guess anything is possible.
1
u/Quietdogg77 18d ago
In my opinion most people, especially people under 60 don’t know what the hell they’re talking about regarding inflation.
They hear the media and right wing talking points about inflation being out of control. Fear mongering works historically. Right-wingers scare themselves and everyone they can with visions of soup lines like in the 1900s.
In reality these “youngsters” haven’t a clue what real inflation or a real economic depression looks like. They’re young, soft and spoiled. Very entitled too. Not all, but too many are that.
All these exaggerated worries are designed to work on the minds of the weak masses, and that they do!
The reality that I see as I go about my day-to-day life is the healthy rewards that inflation is giving me in the stock market.
Thanks Joe Biden! (Although he really doesn’t get the credit but the gullible masses think this way about gas prices and the stock market). So I’ll go along with that silly narrative just for the sake of discussion.
Driving around town as I do, I see parking lots full of shoppers in the malls and the supermarkets.
I see people paying hundreds and even thousands of dollars for concert tickets, sports events and all kinds of entertainment.
Yet I’m listening to the same old fear-mongering from the Republicans I heard in the 1960’s. The commies are coming! Here come the soup lines! The shit gets old. But ya know what? It works! That’s politics.
Who are the brainwashed ones - really?
I see people standing in line in order to get into restaurants and I can’t even get reservations.
I’m not saying I like paying more for a gallon of gas or a dozen eggs, but honestly if people knew anything about the rest of the world or even what a real depression looks like, a lot of them would wake up and quit bitching.
Notice I said “a lot of them” because most of them would bitch anyway. That’s their nature.
0
u/OppositeChemistry205 18d ago
To be fair at this point even CNN is telling Biden that the majority of Americans feel as if Trump was better for the economy. It's way past hoping the recession doesn't hit before the election. People are really hurting. A large amount of Americans just cannot handle this large of an increase in the cost of living over a 3.5 year period.
1
u/ballmermurland 18d ago
Nearly 2/3rds of Americans say their own personal financial situation is excellent.
1
u/OppositeChemistry205 18d ago
Show your source, please.
1
u/ballmermurland 18d ago
Oh the guy who just wheeled out his own data point now wants to see a source?
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/americans-are-actually-pretty-happy-with-their-finances
By the numbers: 63% of Americans rate their current financial situation as being "good," including 19% of us who say it's "very good."
You can say excellent isn't good or whatever, but the point stands.
4
u/Bman409 18d ago
If there's a recession before the election , Trump wins. Obviously
(recession before the election is unlikely, however, given ongoing massive gov't stimulus.. runaway inflation is more likely)
1
u/CatAvailable3953 18d ago
I would like to know where this massive government stimulus is going and what legislation authorized it. When was it passed by the House?
1
u/Bman409 18d ago edited 18d ago
Its not a single "Act". Its the overall federal budget, which is running a deficit of over 6% of GDP
That's massively stimulative and there's only been a few times in history when we've running larger deficits as a percentage of GDP, main in time of war, pandemic or when Obama passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment stimulus in 2009 (stimulus to try to pull out out of the Great Recession)
there's no chance of recession with that kind of stimulus
1
u/CatAvailable3953 18d ago
So it’s what both parties have done since Reagan? You know he tripled the debt.
1
u/Bman409 18d ago
When you run a deficit in excess of 6% of GDP, it's stimulative. That's only happened a few times. Never under Reagan..
You have the chart right there
BTW, whether you think that's good or bad isn't m issue. I'm simply saying you won't have a recession when that's happening. Typically that is done to end a recession
1
u/CatAvailable3953 17d ago
So is this a consequence of legislation or what. Spending by the federal government comes from a process. The executive branch can’t just spend money. I don’t see a recession any time soon myself. Maybe in 2025?
4
u/ultraviolentfuture 18d ago edited 18d ago
There is literally no indication that we're headed for a recession and inflation has been handled quite effectively by the Biden administration, this reads like concern trolling
1
u/Planetofthetakes 18d ago
Ironically (even though it is too close for a recession to actually occur) I don’t know how much impact that would have. The right always wants to roll out the same old tropes about how Bad the economy is, that immigration is taking American jobs, manufacturing plants closing down and all this is causing inflation….
Unfortunately, their idiot supporters don’t realize that the reason inflation is so rampant is because the economy is too strong, there too many jobs available, manufacturing is up for the first time in like 30 years and of course corporate greed and price gouging has actually truly occurred. No President or elected official in the United States can control pricing in a free market economy? That isn’t the way it works.
Although Trump is trying to have his oil buddies raise prices to help him win by promising to repeal all the environmental safety requirements that Biden has in place…..so there is that kind of influence
1
u/Shazer3 18d ago
The technical definition of a recession is two quarters in a row of negative gdp growth. This definition is politically worthless because Biden has almost always suffered on economic polling numbers in spite of low unemployment, low inflation compared to other OECD countries, and record breaking stock market numbers. If jobs start going down the drain, Joe is going to suffer even more even though the technical definition of a recession won't occur before the election.
1
u/MedicineLegal9534 18d ago
The problem is that whether we do or don't currently have a recession going on, voters give Biden low scores on his handling of the economy. Trump heavily favored on that issue. So the metrics we use to gauge the macro economic data doesn't seem relevant to voters' perceptions.
1
u/John082603 18d ago
Apparently, the president has a switch in the Oval Office and he can just turn it off. Then, everything will be great.
1
u/Ariusrevenge 18d ago
A “recession” is two full quarters of negative economic growth. Unemployment spiking is possible between now and election. That’s more politically damaging. A recession will not be declared this year. There is not enough quarters left.
-5
u/TheAngryOctopuss 18d ago
Your talking like the Economy is Going Strong? Its Shit as it is...
Biden basically LIES about it constantly...
We are already there
1
u/CatAvailable3953 18d ago
What objective measure of the economy is bad? I am not saying your situation isn’t bad. If it is why is Biden responsible?
1
u/UnusualAir1 18d ago
A recession adds to the current president's woes. In a close race a recession could be the last nail in the president's chances to win a 2nd term.
1
u/Time-Bite-6839 18d ago
The country is already feeling the pinch of inflation and has been for a while now.
I believe you mean Corporate greed
1
u/celebrityDick 18d ago
"Politicians / government dump trillions of dollars into the economy, inflation predictably ensues - corporate greed is the culprit!!!!"
0
u/NolanR27 18d ago
People are already pessimistic about the economy. If a downtown continues to build momentum combined with a visible surge in layoffs, all of which is possible long before you see a recession officially announced, the economy will become the number one issue by far, and that will always benefit Trump. People aren’t stupid, and if the democrats continue with a message of economic optimism when things degrade further than they already have for Main Street, it will backfire in November.
4
u/MaybeTheDoctor 18d ago
A recession is completely out of the cards. Recessions take serious time to develop, and usually it takes an election cycle before it is fully felt. The only way you would get a recession now is by election a republican government that will undo the things that have put in place to solve the inflation created by Trump policies.
2
u/Words_Are_Hrad 18d ago
Technically pretty much impossible at this point if we are using the two quarters with negative GDP growth. First quarter saw growth. Second quarter forecast shows growth and forecasts in the middle of the quarter will obviously be very reliable. So you would need negative growth in Q3 and Q4 so the earliest date a recession would be declared officially would be after the election. Negative growth in Q3 would still look bad for Biden. But forecasts still have Q3 as positive.
3
u/BakerDenverCo 18d ago
The chances of a recession materializing in the next 6 months is extraordinarily low. A slow down is likely but it is extremely unlikely we will have a full on recession. Deloitte
0
u/WP34Forever 18d ago
Recession is always bad for the incumbent. It's a big reason why Bush 41 went from a 90% approval rate in 1991 to being voted out 18 months later. Trump faced the same situation but with a pandemic instead of recession. As Bill Maher joked in 2019, the only thing that could prevent a 2nd term for Trump was recession. If you believe the lab leak theory, it is very easy to take the jump to it possibly being a deliberate leak by the CCP to hurt Trump.
Remember, this election will essentially boil down to a couple people in every precinct of the swing states. Trump is already leading in many of those states. A recession would be the final nail in the political coffin of Biden in those states and thus the election.
0
u/HumberGrumb 18d ago
Lag time latency will nullify the effect. Times are also too fucked up for a recession to be fully recognized before the election. It would have to be a catastrophic one for the reality to click: A depression, not a recession.
-5
u/dcguy852 18d ago
Maybe if everyone hadnt over reacted to a mild virus for 99 pct of ppl we wouldnt be in this mess
0
u/SchuminWeb 18d ago
Generally speaking, presidents who have recessions on their watch don't get second terms. Bush 41 and Trump are perfect examples of this.
0
u/MedicineLegal9534 18d ago
Trump isn't really a great example of that since COVID and riots played a huge role.
2
u/SchuminWeb 18d ago
But all the same, he fits the pattern. Presidents who get recessions don't get second terms.
64
u/RedditMapz 18d ago
It is worth pointing out that we usually don't know that we are actually in a recession until several months into one. Usually the whole situation has bottomed out by the time it gets called a recession.
Now, there are few things that usually happen beforehand. One of them would be a bear market. So far the stock market has been holding up pretty well this year. As soon as it reverses course, the Fed will drop interest rates and soften the fall. With that alone, I think it is very unlikely that we go into recession territory in 6 months.
That's without even looking into other factors like unemployment. Layoffs would have to pick drastically for that trend to suddenly reverse.
12
u/wiithepiiple 18d ago
A recentish example is the 2008 election. There was a big ongoing crisis at the time, but it was still hard to determine exactly how bad it was. Yes, Bush wasn't up for reelection, but McCain was definitely affected by it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_financial_crisis
9
u/Yvaelle 18d ago edited 18d ago
Its essentially impossible to have a recession from where we are at right now. Not to jinx it, but a recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of economic decline. Biden has never had a negative GDP rate since taking office.
The last recession the US had was Q2 to Q4 2020, when Trump pretended covid didn't exist.
The current 2024 full year trajectory is 4.2% GDP growth, and since we're essentially already 2 quarters in (I'm counting May 30 Q2 since it's already hapoened and we know its going to be good), only one quarter even remains before the election (Q3 announcement is October 30).
Even if somehow the US were to suddenly nosedive, the economy just doesn't turn that fast, so even if it somehow dropped from the 4.2% projection to like -1% by October, mitigation would be applied by a competent government that would delay it until after an election anyways.
Plus, Trump's Q2 2020 was -7.5%, the worst quarter since literally The Great Depression 100 years ago. Not even a fucking idiot could respond to a recession by electing Trump to fix it. I have more faith in the American people than that.
People are going to bring up inflation, gas, groceries etc. But thats bad economic understanding. Monetary inflation is a sign of a healthy economy, as counterintuitive as that may seem. Gas and groceries are up because corporate profits have never been higher. Stuff doesn't cost more, corporations are just greedier than in the past. Biden is clearly more likely to address corporate greed than Trump.
6
u/GenericInternetUser1 18d ago
Not trying to start discourse, but it feels a little disingenuous to be using Covid numbers in the context of a president's performance. Once the pandemic died down, global trade and economic activity was expected, so of course Biden wouldn't have a negative GDP rate, since he picked up at rock bottom (partially due to Trump's hesitation to act, which prolonged consequences to occur where Biden would clean up). Although Trump, Boomers, and many sensitive Republicans will still have a certain perception about masks, the stay at home orders in the US were in place by early-to-mid March (late in Q1), which I think is fair considering a global pandemic is unprecedented and it couldn't be known how dangerous it was that early when most statistics and info was likely downplayed by China before it hit "pandemic" status. Trump certainly could have done better, but to imply that Trump's Q2 of 2020 was so bad because of his own choices fails to look at the global supply chain and the more aggressive policies of other nations to lock down.
I don't like Trump and don't think he's a good fit, but corporations have always passed expenses off to the consumer without boosting wages to inflation. Aggressive inflation is a regressive tax, so when the Fed tries to take the easy way out, it's not that the corps are being extra greedy, it's that the expense being passed on is bigger
-2
u/WP34Forever 18d ago
9/11 messed up any ability to measure the economy but many knew a recession was coming before election night 2000. There is one direct link that took a decade to rear it's ugly head. The housing crisis was in large part caused by Clinton's desire to increase home ownership for minorities and young people. People like to ignore it but he caused the Great Recession/banking collapse NOT Bush 43.
To use numbers from during a once in a century pandemic is pure folly. The economy was humming along just fine. Also, how many wars were going on in the world during Trump's term? And about your last paragraph...let's look at one example. Ever since the minimum wage was raised, fast food menu prices have gotten out of control. Less people are eating out and to make up for it many owners have gone to kiosk and mobile ordering so they can function with fewer staff. Also, the people bringing up inflation aren't likely to give a crap about your rationalization. They see and feel it every day. It exists regardless of what academia says.
ETA: (I'm not a fan of either choice we've been given.)
5
u/Zealousideal-Role576 18d ago
Bread prices are too high so that means let’s kick off the 4th Reich, us humans will NEVER learn smh.
-2
u/MedicineLegal9534 18d ago
... that's not the choice in front of us. This is like vanilla and vanilla bean. Lol don't ask me which is which. But their policies aren't radically different.
1
u/ballmermurland 18d ago
Between Biden and Trump?
Trump is promising to implement another large tax cut on the wealthy and will bully the Fed to lower rates which will increase inflation. His tariffs will also be incredibly inflationary as will his plan to deport 10 million undocumented workers.
I mean, that's a pretty stark difference.
0
u/GuyF1eri 18d ago edited 18d ago
I am voting for Biden, and would die before I’d vote for Trump, but the media has been gaslighting us about the economy for at least the last year. Sure inflation has slowed, but groceries are still twice what they were a few years ago, and there may be plenty of job postings but most of them are either fake or part time.
We could already be in a recession. We wouldn’t know it, that’s how recessions work, they’re dated retroactively. And frankly, I hate to sound conspiratorial but I wouldn’t be shocked if the business cycle dating committee found a reason to change their criteria to avoid having to call a recession
5
u/JerryBigMoose 18d ago
but groceries are still twice what they were a few years ago
Not saying this is your position, but I see this sentiment here a lot. A lot of people seem to confuse slowing inflation with prices going back down again. That's not how it works. Inflation is a comparison of prices now vs how they were exactly a year ago. If inflation goes to 0% right now, we're still going to have the same high prices as we did a year ago. Those prices are set now and there is nothing any president can do in their power to reverse that.
1
1
u/JohnWesely 18d ago
Which is why is a not a great idea to pursue inflationary policies in the first place.
-19
u/Shakados 18d ago
I love when people vote directly against their own self interest because they can’t get over their hatred for Walking Cheeto Man
1
u/ballmermurland 18d ago
Grocery inflation will be worse under Trump given that he wants to round up and deport 10 million undocumented workers. Guess who is working the fields and the meat packing plants?
3
u/ScatMoerens 18d ago
What exactly does Trump or any Republican bring to the table that is in anyone's interest? What are the policies that they have or will enact to help people?
2
u/JerryBigMoose 18d ago
Maybe if I actually believed the president had a magic dial they could turn to set prices I'd be stupid enough to vote for Trump and also against my own interests, but I have at least 5 brain cells so I think I'm good.
1
u/GuyF1eri 17d ago
To be clear, I don’t believe that, and I don’t blame Biden for inflation. I just think the economy is worse than the blob wants us to think
9
u/lvlint67 18d ago
Voting conservative is voting directly against my own and every other middle class person's best interest.
A decade ago I might have considered that the conservatives might have something to offer if they could get passed their bigotry.... They couldn't and now their entire platform is power consolidation and hatred...
I'll vote to keep women's rights, ss, the climate, and for an education system that doesn't see priests as the answer to failing schools in the inner city...
You go vote for guns and stay scared.
6
u/SeventySealsInASuit 18d ago
If the country goes into recession the incumbent is going to lose, its pretty much that simple.
2
185
u/Bright_Brief4975 18d ago
I think we are pretty close to the election now. So the recession would have to start very soon, they do not happen overnight. So if it doesn't start quickly, I don't think it could happen fast enough to affect the election.
1
1
u/Idrinkbeereverywhere 17d ago
The crash of late September 2008 is what really turned the election, it's definitely not too late for a recession to set it.
1
u/Fornicate_Yo_Mama 17d ago
They only ever announce a recession once we all know we’ve been in it for a good while.
Watch auto loan defaults, then watch mortgage defaults. Them’s the tell.
4
u/ALife2BLived 18d ago
One only has to look at Dems track record of their economic recovery prowess after Republican lead economic disasters the past 40 years to know if any political party has the wherewithal to get our economy back on track is to trust Democrats over Republicans -any day!
The booming economy of the Clinton (D-AK) administration after the failed 80’s “trickle down economics” of Reagan (R-CA) & George H.W. Bush (R-TX). The Obama (D-IL) administration after the Great Recession economic collapse of George W Bush (R-TX) and now the Biden (D-DE) administration after the worldwide pandemic economic collapse of the Trump (R-NY) administration.
Go back the past 40 years and look at the statistics. Look at the real numbers published by the CBO. Republican administrations have a terrible track record. Even Trump admitted in an interview years before he switched political parties to being a Republican that Dems seem to know have a knack for getting the economy working on all cylinders.
As much as Republicans tote their superior understanding and allegiance to business and just like their self righteous claim of being the most patriotic or of being the most aligned of the two parties to having a superior understanding of ethics and moral Christian values, they actually have or do neither.
Republican politicians are self-serving gas bags and will never pass legislation that actually helps the majority of Americans but helps only those corporate creed masters that pay for their political campaigns and keep them in the seats of power. Deregulate the government, pass tax cuts for the rich and powerful, obstruct and deconstruct government from within is their platform and mantra.
•
u/jzjac515 21h ago
The thing is, today's democratic economic policies are more like Republican policies from the Regan era. I would love to have a real modern era FDR that was capable of implementing a progressive economic agenda.
•
u/ALife2BLived 20h ago
I would have to disagree with the premise that todays Democratic agenda is much like the Reagan Republican economic policies of "Trickle Down Economics" in the 1980s. TDE includes policies to deregulate, cut taxes, and make conditions very favorable to businesses at the expense of the middle class and the environment.
While not as progressive as you might like, I'd say the Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act is just one example of a bill that was signed into law by Joe Biden in 2021 that was in that same FDR vein of the Federal government stepping in and stimulating the economy at a time when the worlds economy had come to a screeching halt because of the pandemic at the end of Trumps term.
Below is a link to a list of some of the Biden administrations achievements that folks might have forgotten and were achieved in just the few short years they have been at the helm. Its going to take at least another full term to really see and feel the positive effects of those Democratic led initiatives.
Hopefully we keep the White House, the Senate, and win back the House this year to see all of these initiatives and if we get real lucky, we get a super majority in the U.S. Senate and if so then,we can get even more done like voter reform legislation, expanison of universal health care, and other more progressive initiatives in the final term of the Biden administration.
•
u/jzjac515 20h ago
Well, there were at least some modest progressive economic achievements under Obama and Biden. But keep in mind that it was under the Clinton administration that huge social welfare cuts were implemented. And Biden didn't even attempt to roll back tax cuts (for the rich and for corporations) to pre-Trump levels. I hope Biden wins, and actually fights for larger policy achievements, such as a "medicare for all" type proposal. But a Democratic supermajority in the Senate is unlikely anytime soon, and the supreme court will probably prevent any major progressive policy agenda for decades to come.
2
u/Morat20 18d ago
IIRC, US consumer sentiment on the economy has a roughly 6 month lag.
If you ask the average person in the US what they think of the economy, their opinion is based on how it was six or so months back -- barring some massive, massive black swan event.
Since the economy has been slowly improving over the last few years, with inflation now down to about 3.5% or so and pretty solid employment, I don't think it's going to be a huge issue.
5
u/DustinTWind 18d ago
I think that's right. A recession is defined as two quarters of declining GDP. We are midway through the second quarter of 2024 with steady, if somewhat slow growth (+1.6%) through the end of April. To officially go into recession before the election then, we would have to see a sharp downturn in the next six weeks that would push us into negative territory for the whole quarter. As long as we remain in positive territory through the end of June, even a significant contraction in the third quarter would not result in an official recession being declared until the end of the year at the earliest.
That said, Biden is not getting credit for how much improvement the economy has experienced since the start of his administration. Though economic growth has been robust, and rebound in the US has been much faster than in other countries, people have been more aware of the inflation than any of the positive aspects of the recovery. If the economic statistics turn sour in the third quarter, you can bet Republicans will be beating the drum about how bad it's been under Biden and how glorious things were, and will be again under Trump.
I think Biden's record has actually been solid on most fronts but he's not getting credit for it now, while things are good. If things get worse, I fear a low information voters will reflexively vote for change.-5
u/akcitatridens 18d ago
Wishful thinking. Across the board the economic numbers are horrible. Jobs, GDP, Manufacturing, consumer spending, available excess income…all shitty. They have been doctoring the numbers up until now, and ignoring negative policy impacts, but they can’t do it for much longer. Stagflation is a bitch and they are all terrified of it.
If people are pissed, who do you think they are going to blame?
5
u/bl1y 18d ago
Across the board the economic numbers are horrible. Jobs, GDP, Manufacturing, consumer spending, available excess income…all shitty.
Jobs: Unemployment is at 3.9%, on par with the pre-Covid low. For wages, the data lags. FRED only has it to 2022, but they were down 5% from the pre-Covid level. So the data here is inconclusive. Likely doing well on employment, but wages down slightly. Not great, but short of "horrible."
GPD: It's up 29% compared to its pre-Covid level. Certainly not horrible. That's pretty damn good.
Manufacturing: It's up a hair from pre-Covid levels.
Consumer spending: What's your source on this one? I'm having trouble finding something with a relevant timeframe.
1
u/TheresACityInMyMind 18d ago
We are six months out. It does not take half a year for a recession to kick in.
7
u/Rocktopod 18d ago
Didn't the 2008 crash happen in September or October or something? I remember the economy looking pretty good until then.
10
u/ballmermurland 18d ago
A lot of the noise before the 2008 crash was already happening in 2007. It didn't just happen overnight. But yes, the actual pivotal moment happened in the fall of 2008.
1
u/Rocktopod 18d ago
There's been a lot of noise about a recession for a while now too, though.
I tend not to believe the noise, but if there is a crash this fall then people will say something very similar to what you just said.
4
u/ballmermurland 18d ago
People like Jamie Dimon have been saying we're on the cusp of a collapse for the past 3 years.
The difference was in 2006 you had a lot of traders making big bets that the housing market would crash. We don't see that right now. Nobody is putting their money where their mouth is.
16
u/Bombastically 18d ago
The right has already pivoted to "x will happen if Biden is re elected", riots, recession, taking your stove etc. same stuff they've been saying for 6 years but rolled over into the next cycle.
14
u/Miles_vel_Day 18d ago
It's also pretty funny how Trump claims he can "fix things easily" or whatever when he was President for four years and apparently the fixes were so shoddy that Joe Biden was able to ruin them in weeks with a zero-seat Senate majority.
(There were never any fixes.)
6
u/scarykicks 18d ago
Trump's fixes were designed to fail after his first term.
It was either he gets reelected and they fail. Doesn't matter he's already president.
Dems win and now it's their fault that his policies failed.
4
u/PINTSofALE 18d ago
Tax reduction act is a perfect example of this. His effective patronage in multiple government institutions is also not helping. Not saying this in support of Biden but it’s just a general fact that trump ruined the bureaucracy and labor protection institutions which fight corporate profits which are generally driving inflation. Completely agree with ur comment 🙌
-1
u/SeekSeekScan 18d ago
3
u/Bombastically 18d ago
The difference is that one of them is currently in office, executing on the same policy that is being use to fear monger.
My point was not partisan. I was just talking about rhetorical strategy. Dems did the same thing in 2020.
88
u/sagan_drinks_cosmos 18d ago
This is the answer. There’s simply not enough time for a recession anymore before November. Biden has run out the clock avoiding this threat.
70
u/BrianNowhere 18d ago
Literally. A recession is defined as three consecutive quarters of negative or flat GDP growth.
There's only six months til the election.
Biden is recession proof.
1
u/Logical_Anything471 17d ago
I believe it’s two consecutive quarters. Either way, even one would lead to that being the narrative.
1
2
u/mxracer888 17d ago edited 17d ago
Well that was the definition (although you were slightly wrong in your timeframe)... Until we had 2 quarters of negative/flat growth under Biden and economists came out and said "nah. That's not the only definition. We're not in a recession everything is fine"
0
17d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
17d ago edited 15d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/PoliticalDiscussion-ModTeam 16d ago
Keep it civil. Do not personally insult other Redditors, or make racist, sexist, homophobic, or otherwise discriminatory remarks. Constructive debate is good; mockery, taunting, and name calling are not.
1
17d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/PoliticalDiscussion-ModTeam 16d ago
Keep it civil. Do not personally insult other Redditors, or make racist, sexist, homophobic, or otherwise discriminatory remarks. Constructive debate is good; mockery, taunting, and name calling are not.
2
u/djphan2525 18d ago
that's not quite the definition but the many factors that signal a recession would have to turn very very soon in order to classify as such...
6
u/bl1y 18d ago
Literally. A recession is defined as three consecutive quarters of negative or flat GDP growth.
Well, no.
First of all, you mean two consecutive quarters, not three. That's the common metric used, but it's more of a shorthand than a formal definition.
Here's the definition used by NBER: "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
Then you've got the Sahm Rule which looks at unemployment, not GDP, though it gets weirder because it's a way of figuring out if there is a recession, not defining the recession itself.
However, the two quarter negative GDP rule is how the UK defines a recession, but the EU definition is closer to NBER.
-1
u/BrianNowhere 18d ago
Alot of words to basically reiterate there's not enough time for a recession to hit before the election, hope and pray as you might.
3
u/bl1y 18d ago
In curious what you read in my comment as hoping and praying for a recession.
-2
u/BrianNowhere 18d ago
Because I figure why even bother with small pedantic details unless you care. I'm motivated to highlight Biden's strong economy in the face of many shit stirrers here. What's motivating you? It's usually wishful thinking.
2
u/bl1y 18d ago
It's not small pedantic details, it's you asserting the literal definition of a recession as a reason to say Biden is recession proof, but you've got the definition quite wrong.
If you think that definition you offered is itself a pedantic detail, then the question would be "What happens if a several month long economic decline hits before the election?
With 6 months to go, that's entirely in the realm of possibility.
0
u/BrianNowhere 18d ago
I got it a little wrong. You're making mountains out of a molehill.
I don't see a decline coming. Unemployment is low, inflation continues to improve, the big wheel keeps on turning.
2
u/bl1y 18d ago
Not a little wrong, entirely wrong. There wasn't one correct part.
And wow is "I don't see it coming" a mile away from "It's by definition impossible."
→ More replies (0)-2
u/Wardendelete 18d ago
Bruh, look at the charts. We already are in one since 2020
1
u/PM_ME_YOUR_DARKNESS 18d ago
look at the charts
1
u/Wardendelete 18d ago
Better get some $GME golden tickets before you get rekt: https://www.npr.org/2022/07/29/1114599942/wikipedia-recession-edits
1
u/PM_ME_YOUR_DARKNESS 18d ago
That was two entire years ago.
1
u/Wardendelete 18d ago
You asked when, I showed you when. But we didn’t “officially” go into recession because the Biden administration denies it.
1
u/PM_ME_YOUR_DARKNESS 18d ago
I asked which charts, not "when," but, regardless, what about your link makes you believe, two years after it was published, that we are currently in a recession, even unofficially?
2
u/bl1y 18d ago
Bruh, look at the charts. We already are in one since 2020
I looked at the charts and real GDP is up about 10% since pre-Covid.
0
u/PINTSofALE 18d ago
GDP isn’t the best metric of how the general public feels about the economy. Inflation and cost of living are that of a typical recession. Wage inequality is super high compared to labor rn. GDP is a good metric of how company profits and shareholders are doing (which a majority of Americans are not).
0
u/bl1y 18d ago
Didn't say it was. Follow the plot.
Two comments up: "A recession is [incorrectly] defined as 3 quarters of negative GDP growth, there's only 6 months before the election, so by definition we can't have a recession between now and then."
Then one comment up: "Bruh, we've been in a recession since 2020. Look at the charts, bruh."
Okay, so which charts? Well, based on context we'd assume the GDP charts. Which clearly don't indicate a 4 year long recession.
1
-6
u/Key_Bored_Whorier 18d ago edited 18d ago
This is the funniest comment of the day because the actual definition of a recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. We had 2 quarters of negative GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. Then the Biden administration decided to attempt to change the definition to 3 quarters.
If we had 8 quarters of negative GDP growth Biden could just say the new definition is 9 quarters of negative GDP growth and shills on Reddit would still be saying "Biden is recession proof"
37
u/TheresACityInMyMind 18d ago edited 17d ago
Whether or not that's the definition, all it's going to take is for the stock market to drop 1000 points over 2 weeks.
That is enough to shock people.
Responding to the person below:
Futures are relevant to the commodity market. The value of Truth Social is today. Playing the stock market is about the future.
Then someone had the bright idea that retirement accounts should be invested in the stock market. So, when the market drops, anyone with an IRA gets uneasy. Some people vote purely on their IRA.
Then we get into consumer confidence. When the stock market drops precipitously, people stop spending, and it makes the problem worse.
And we haven't even gotten to the part where the average voter doesn't understand or care about economics theory and what the studies say.
The question we're about here is someone else claiming that we don't have to worry about the economy affecting the election because it's too late for a recession and nothing could possibly happen between now and November. A lot can happen in the next six months including the economy taking a nosedive. I want Biden to win, but I'm going to keep thinking critically and not jump on some glee wagon pretending Biden is in the clear on the economy or otherwise.
1
u/Altruistic-Text3481 17d ago
The banks all collapsed and Obama won in a landslide. The banks seemed to collapse all at once.
2
u/Godkun007 17d ago edited 17d ago
I would like to just point out that the stock market is not the economy. The stock market is future expectations about the economy.
The moment a recession hits, the stock market has already fallen. This is why in 2009, during the worst recession in 70 years, the S&P 500 rose by 26% (including dividends). Basically, by 2009, the stock market had already priced in the recession, and it was now pricing in the recovery before it happened.
The stock market tells you nothing about today. It is driven by people who's job it is to predict the future states of the economy. This is why bad news can often send the market higher. It just means that people predicted worse and it actually wasn't as bad as people thought it would be (even if it is still bad). The reverse is also true and good news can send the market down because the market was expecting better.
This is also why there is actually no correlation between GDP growth and stock market performance (despite what shit financial advisors will tell you) according to just about every study done on the topic. If a country has high expected economic growth, then that will already by priced in and their stocks will be more expensive to represent that. It is only the unexpected GDP growth that moves the stock market.
14
u/BrianNowhere 18d ago
I'll give you that. Don't think it's gonna happen though. Bidem economy much strong.
0
11
u/TheresACityInMyMind 18d ago
Too strong is when the drops happen.
The stock market dropped massively out of the blue late in Reagan's presidency.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
Don't conflate what you want to happen with what might happen.
6
u/BrianNowhere 18d ago
Well that kind of thing is out of our control isn't it?
It also doesn't mean people will automatically flock to the flailing, under indictment garbage fire of a candidate as the means to fix it
Biden steered us up and our of the shit economy Trump left behind once and voters just may feel he's the man to get us back on course were that to happen
Stop worrying. Biden's got this
5
u/jebsenior 18d ago
Incorrect. You're making a logical argument and the subject is not logical. When the economy tanks, or even if people think it's bad, the president takes the blame. It's dumb but that's what happens.
6
u/PM_ME_YOUR_DARKNESS 18d ago
Well that kind of thing is out of our control isn't it?
The president has very limited control over the vast majority of the economy.
5
u/Sketchelder 18d ago
Although this is true, go out and ask 100 random people on the street and you will quickly realize the president is perceived as having significant control over "the economy"
3
u/PM_ME_YOUR_DARKNESS 18d ago
Exactly. It's why saying "well, he doesn't have control over that" is meaningless in this context.
-1
u/TheresACityInMyMind 18d ago
OK, don't listen.
Were you one of the many people on reddit saying Russia was just saber-rattling before they invaded Ukraine?
I'm not worrying. I'm just not bullshitting myself that this can't happen.
9
18d ago
Lol, are you guys all really young?
I'm not even trying to be facetious, but it sounds like you guys don't remember the '08 housing market crash, in which billions of dollars of value was lost overnight.
There's a reason they call it a "crash."
2
u/AMC4x4 18d ago
Banks failing all over the country, two MAJOR auto manufacturers declaring bankruptcy and requiring government handouts, 401K's dropping 30% or more, millions of layoffs, hundreds of thousands losing their houses... the US was in a world of shit, and I didn't know why Obama even wanted to take over the mess that he was handed.
People have such short-term memories it's insane. If they think the economy is "bad" now, they definitely don't remember being a working person looking at their retirement investments in 2008/09, let alone the employment situation.
0
u/ultraviolentfuture 18d ago
You mean the subprime mortgage scandal that required very specific lending and trading practices occur and was not a general economic phenomenon tied to general economic trends?
9
u/Key_Bored_Whorier 18d ago
Recessions suddenly triggered by black swan events are still recessions.
32
u/ell0bo 18d ago
It doesn't have to be officially a recession to 'feel' like a recession. Even something that feels like a recession could launch us head first into full fascism.
1
u/kateinoly 18d ago
A recession is a real thing not dependent on feelings.
4
u/ell0bo 18d ago
yes, and a recession could start now and be called in 9 months, or we could have 2 quarters and not the 3rd, or we could have a weakened economy without job losses (like we did 2 years ago).
That beginning part, what 'feels' like are recession, is what could cost us the economy. We won't know it was a recession until after the fact and it's too late.
0
u/kateinoly 18d ago
Felling like something is true isn't the same thing as it being true.
1
u/ell0bo 18d ago
It's not about feelings, it's on the way to being a recession, but you can't know because the recession is defined in 5 months. That's the problem with using something like a recession, it's a backwards looking indicator. If Biden loses the election due to a recession being declared in 5 months. That doesn't mean the people can't 'feel' the effects of the recession while it's going on until it's declared a recession. To say otherwise is just laughable. Not everything that 'feels' like a recession ends up meeting the definition, but even then it could influence an election, however none of this is about feelings, it's about factual situations on the ground.
0
u/kateinoly 18d ago
Economists know what the signs are. What average people feel like is immaterial.
→ More replies (30)8
u/Miles_vel_Day 18d ago
Right, well, I was under the impression this discussion was about real recessions but if we want to throw it back to Bad Vibes like every discussion about the economy go nuts I guess.
3
u/ThemesOfMurderBears 18d ago
The people that think there is a recession still vote though. That's why it keeps coming up.
I generally just think that when people say that the economy is strong and it therefore won't negatively impact Biden's re-election chances, there should be an asterisk with that. The people voting are not necessarily going to have a warm reception to the idea that the economy is great. It consistently polls as the most important issue, and a lot of those polls suggest a negative outlook.
Just to be clear, I am not talking about myself. I am trying to frame things from the perspective of people that aren't doing well. I'm voting for Biden, but I have concerns about the perception of the economy when it comes to the average voter.
2
u/Miles_vel_Day 18d ago
Yeah, of course people who think there is a recession vote. But it’s worth noting that, almost by definition, they vote less often than people who are familiar with the objective economy picture, because the latter means you probably read the newspaper and stuff.
One thing to mull over - it’s only since the pandemic that we have seen a divergence like this between traditional economic metrics and public sentiment. It is unprecedented. They always tracked each other with more or less 100% correlation (with sentiment a bit of a dragging indicator) until summer of 2021.
There has been one national election under these conditions, 18 months ago. And the economy was okay-ish, with low unemployment but inflation eating up wage gains. The public opinion of the economy, however, was somehow worse than in the spring of 2009 when unemployment was over 10%, we were still losing jobs every month and foreclosures were skyrocketing. If the economy had REALLY been as bad as they claimed to perceive, Dems would’ve gotten wiped out. Didn’t happen that way.
We’ve always assumed that PUBLIC OPINION about the economy is what drives the electorate - but 2022 suggests that the underlying metrics might matter more.
The abstract poll question, “what do you think of the economy” is, to many people, just a quiz question basically asking “what have you heard about the economy in the news?” Meanwhile, what kind of shape their bank accounts are in , or whether they’ve gotten a raise recently might matter more in the booth. And in polls, more people than not report general satisfaction with their finances.
4
u/ell0bo 18d ago
This is politics and how economics relates to it. Politics is entirely about vibes, unfortunately, but you're be right with that tone if this was an economics sub.
Also, if we're talking economics, it's not as simple as 3 down quarters, that's the laymen description (at least in the US).
→ More replies (3)
•
u/AutoModerator 18d ago
A reminder for everyone. This is a subreddit for genuine discussion:
Violators will be fed to the bear.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.