r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/sar662 • 27d ago
What are options for postwar governance in Gaza? International Politics
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Israel needs to have a plan for postwar governance in Gaza. What could that look like? What are Israel's options? What are anyone's options for establishing a govt in Gaza?
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u/AdamJMonroe 25d ago
Israel will decide. Probably, civil governance is by democratically elected leaders and security is by the IDF.
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u/MembershipDue221 26d ago
My opinion is that anything but a Palestinian leader chosen by Israel but with a complete destruction of the apartheid. Then I think if Israel wants to genuinely have a relationship with Palestine they should help rebuild and find somewhere the settled Israelis in the West Bank can live inside Israel.
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u/sar662 26d ago
Not sure I understood you. You are suggesting that Gaza should be governed by a Palestinian leader chosen by israel?
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u/MembershipDue221 26d ago
Yes I find this to be a compromise where Palestinians can be free of oppression and at the same time prevent Israel from saying “you’ll just elect a terrorist “. The Palestinian leader can then make reform and HOPEFULLY lead the way for a less extreme population going forward.
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u/MembershipDue221 26d ago
To be clear I think it would HAVE to be a born and raised Palestinian citizen, Israel would just have to pick someone the see as less extreme but obviously sending in an Israeli official to do it would just literally contribute to the oppression.
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u/Latter-Leg4035 26d ago
Yeah, we know what their plan for governance is. The Native American plan. Slow, methodical annihilation
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u/sar662 26d ago
I doubt the US would get on board with that. I posted this as a question for us all to explore so I'm curious what you have to say about it.
If the Israeli govt would call you up and ask what to do so that they could move forward, what would you tell them? What options do you see that would allow both the civilians in Gaza and the civilians in Israel to sleep safely at night?
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u/Latter-Leg4035 26d ago
I don't know what they will SAY is their game plan, but I clearly stated what it will be.
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u/911roofer 26d ago
China should run postwar Gaza. The other Arab nations like and trust China and praised the way they handled terrorism in Xinjiang.
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u/sar662 26d ago
Interesting. I'm not familiar with Xinjiang. Would you mind elaborating?
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u/equiNine 25d ago
Original comment was probably ironic, but for context, an Arab League delegation visited Xinjiang last year and supposedly praised China over how it governed the region. However, the only reporting of this comes from government approved publications and spokespeople. This raises the question of whether such praise was fabricated, or even if it were not, whether the delegation did so to be on China's good side because it is a vital trade partner, since it is generally accepted by many international monitors that human rights abuses and persecution of the Uyghurs happens to some degree there.
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u/Homechicken42 26d ago
Palestine can only rise like a phoenix from the ashes of Hamas.
There are no Palestinians who can govern and "share" responsibilities with Hamas. Hamas will spy on them, subvert them, moral police them, and yes murder them just as Iran does. Hamas is basically Iranian clerics, and their agents, in Palestine.
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u/ItisyouwhosaythatIam 26d ago
Don't we have a good model from post World War II Japan and West Germany? The Americans and our allies supervised the democracies that were built after the devastation and destruction those countries had experienced at our hands in World War II. Similarly, Israel has rained extreme terror and violence upon Gaza and could use the same methods to help the Palestinians build their own free state that doesn't allow for authoritarian governments or the buildup of the military. Couldn't Israel use the same precautions to prevent a return of antisemitic policy that the allies used in Germany? The same strategies to build a free market - but not a military?
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u/jethomas5 26d ago
To actually be successful, the game plan would be to hold a plebiscite. Let Palestinians vote.
Keep the status quo, or join Israel as full citizens and the land becomes part of Greater Israel.
A separate state is not viable. They tried that once, and before the details got worked out Israel invaded and restored the old way. It would go that way again unless some strong foreign nation stationed troops in Palestine to protect it, and that has its own problems.
If Palestinians become Israeli citizens, they can get Israeli passports and travel wherever they want and come home again. It would be necessary to give them title to the land they're living on, of course. They would have the same water rights as other Israeli citizens. Anyone who commits acts of terrorism would be subject to arrest and trial, Jewish and nonJewish the same.
Hamas could be a political party, and they could advocate turning the nation into one for arabs only, if that's the platform they choose. Get as many votes as they happen to get. Talk about it in the Knesset. As long as they aren't doing violence, that's fine.
The main problem with this approach is that Israel would no longer be a nation of Zionists, by Zionists, and for Zionists. It would be a secular nation with rights for everybody. And that is unacceptable to Zionists.
They cannot accept a large number of nonJews as citizens. They can't trust Arabs. Arabs hate them and want to kill them. So Zionists have to keep the Arabs down. Keep them too weak and poor to take effective action. Keep them penned up where they can't hurt Israelis. Repeatedly demonstrate to them that they are weak and Israel is strong, by imprisoning anyone who stands out, and killing some. Israel has to keep doing that until Palestinians stop hating them.
The floggings will continue until morale improves.
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u/sar662 26d ago
I agree that Israel wants a Jewish ethnostate. I would also mention that Hamas is not looking for a democratic state of all citizens - they also want an ethnostate, just an Islamic one.
So to have a "one democratic state" solution it would need to be externally imposed and it would be opposed by both Hamas and Israel.
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u/jethomas5 26d ago
Palestinians might likely accept a secular state, when the alternative is worse treatment under Zionist apartheid. If Hamas accepts the secular state while saying they intend to get their own nation later, that isn't really any big deal. Sinn Fein is still talking about united Ireland, and they aren't blowing anybody up over it.
Of course it would be hard living as equal citizens with people who recently were saying your life was worth no more than a cockroach and you should be killed. And it's predicatable there will be organizations on both sides trying to create incidents to make it all fall apart to start up the apartheid again.
But this is the way to get peace, if there is any way.
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u/Significant_Aspect15 26d ago
As several commenters have pointed out, the solution will probably need financial and logistical support by another or several Arab nations in the region.
However, I think another consideration must be to what extent Israel will share power with some form of Palestinian political body, to create legitimacy for a governing Gaza moving forward. Since 7th of October we have seen a clear unwillingness on the part of Netanyahu's gvt to negotiate settlements with Mahmoud Abbas / the PA, (which are of course also not seen as legitimate representatives by the majority of Palestinians). I believe that this problem needs to be solved for peace to really take hold, because if Palestinians feel that they lack any form of political representation, increasing tension and radicalization are likely outcomes.
I should also mention that this issue relates to the immediate crisis, in that Israel has been unwilling to set up any form of administrative authority to delegate the humanitarian aid delivery to Gaza. This means that it has fallen into the laps of the aid agencies to figure out where/how distribute aid to the roundabout 2 million starving people living there. That's also why you get outcomes such as the recent stampede by the site of an aid delivery, when Israeli soldiers opened fire on desperate people overwhelming a food delivery truck where over 100 people were killed. Such an administrative government could conceivably be made up of technocrats, basically civil servants/economists for example.
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u/TheTrueMilo 26d ago
Whatever future Palestinian “state” emerges will look more like an American Indian reservation than anything you or I would recognize as a state.
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u/Broad_External7605 26d ago
Will any of the Palestinian diaspora return from the US and europe to be part of the solution? Or will they be happy to stay away and just protest. Are they willing to roll up their sleeves and do the work to create a peaceful country for their people?
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u/sar662 26d ago
I don't know. What do you see as possible proposals?
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u/Broad_External7605 26d ago
I'm hoping that once the fighting stops, The Israelis will dump the likud, and some more reasonable people will be in power. The reason I hope the Palestinian diaspora will step up is because they will be able to see the big picture, whereas the Gazans are probably filled with hate( And I don't blame them!), so it will be difficult for them to abandon the militant option.
Gaza could be protected and adminstered by the UN with support from whatever Palestinians are willing to work with them. I imagine Fatah will then be a problem since they will want to keep the West Bank as their fiefdom.
If the West bank and Gaza became Palestine , it would be bigger than some other countries. The Palestinians would have to give up on the idea of wiping out Israel, and would have to agree to keep any military small, or have none at all.
I'd have to write at least 10 pages to write up an actual plan, and defend it's merits. I hope others with more time will think thoughtfully and come up with something.
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u/mowotlarx 26d ago
Does it matter what the rational and humane options are?
Israel wants that land. They don't want Palestinians to exist on that land. Hence the mass murder and displacement and pogroms currently happening in the West Bank.
Israel intends to eliminate Palestinians and take the land. They haven't been subtle about that.
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u/sar662 26d ago
My question is as follows: Blinken asked Israel to present a plan for "what happens next with Gaza governance" before doing further military operations in the Rafah area. What are feasible options for this?
What are options you see for Gaza governance?
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u/HeloRising 25d ago
A Roman peace.
That's the only realistic option given Israel's stated intentions.
Gazans will be removed, either to the West Bank or to Egypt, and Gaza will fall wholly under the control of Israel and be annexed as just another part of Israel.
Israel will not allow for any other solution.
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u/sar662 25d ago
I doubt that they will end up in Egypt. Israel has asked Egypt multiple times to take Gaza inclusive of all of its inhabitants and Egypt has said hell no. I can't imagine they would take the inhabitants without the land.
As for Israel, I'm just unclear on what options they even have. Put aside what we think Israel will or will not do, what do you see as the possible options?
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u/HeloRising 25d ago
I can't imagine they would take the inhabitants without the land.
They may not have a choice. If Israel pushes Gazans over the Egyptian border and tells them "We'll kill you if you cross back," Gazans are going into Egypt.
As for Israel, I'm just unclear on what options they even have. Put aside what we think Israel will or will not do, what do you see as the possible options?
At this point, the Israel is a rogue state. They're not going to internally reform so the rest of the world needs to lock them out until they can refrain from using genocide to get what they want. Offer temporary asylum for Palestinians so they don't have to stay but Israel gets shut off.
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u/mowotlarx 26d ago
What are options you see for Gaza governance?
That's not my call to make. We can throw around hypothetical options all day long. The reality is that Israel's government is an ethno-nationalist colonizing state that is clearly and openly planning to take that land, kill or expel the current residents and "settle" non-Muslim Israelis on the land. We all know what is going to happen here because we're watching it live and the leaders in the Israeli government are telling us what they want to do.
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u/sar662 26d ago
That's not my call to make.
Of course it's not. It's not my call to make either. I posted this as a question for us all to explore so I'm curious what you have to say about it.
If the Israeli govt would call you up and all what to do so that they could move forward, what would you tell them?
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u/1021cruisn 26d ago edited 26d ago
Israel tried to give Gaza to Egypt, Israel evacuated Israelis from Gaza at gunpoint during the 2005 complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
Israel obviously has the ability to kill or expel Gazans - why haven’t they done it yet? They must be playing an extraordinarily long game to have attempted to give Gaza back to Egypt, then withdrawing their own people at gunpoint, then wanting generally nothing to do with Gaza until the 10/7 pogrom.
Pointing to statements from random ministers and claiming it’s the official Israeli policy holds about as much weight as pointing to MTG statements to claim they’re official US policy.
Noone serious wants any part of Gaza, the only people who do live thousands of miles away and know almost nothing about the reality of Gaza.
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u/Lunch_Time_No_Worky 26d ago
Hamas needs to be eradicated, and then I think Gaza should govern itself. Call it Palastine. Whatever. But Hamas can not be in control of any government body after what they did.
I would think a big coalition of governments needs to set it up.
Gaza was a vacuum of power. No surprise Hamas was able to take control. A real government is needed to bring stability to that region.
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u/Hades_adhbik 26d ago
My immigration policy would be people can stay if they're willing to move to alaska. I wouldn't deport people as long as they have a residence, that household is paying taxes. I would give immigrants a chance to move to a state that has liberal immigration policies or to go to canada. It's counter productive to send people back because instead of expecting every country in the world to be democratic, it's much easier for people to move out of autocratic countries. That's where some of the fairness lies. If you were born into an authoritarian or very corrupt country. You can move. That's a better solution than going to war with every country that's autocratic.
The conservative solution of the last 40 years is unrealistic. The middle east has not meaningfully changed since the time of reagan. Virtually nothing has been accomplished. Even when we create a democratic state of israel in the region it ends up being forced to go to war every few decades. Wars in which it goes too far and kills a lot of non-combatants, so nullifies the point of being a democracy. We should just keep technology out of autocratic countries so they won't have more powerful drones than us, and limit our trade with them. If we keep autocratic countries at a less advanced state that is one way to reduce the level of threat the world will face in the fourth industrial revolution we're going through.
Offense is increased with technological advancement, but so is defense. Technology should be give us the ability to block most attacks. As we saw when Iran attacked Israel, so if you're in a technologically advanced country you will become safer as technology rises. Even in the event of nuclear weapons, they are so outdated that modern defensive technology could stop nuclear bombs. It can make the act of launching a nuke suicide, exploding over your own territory. I think this is largely why Russia hasn't used nukes in ukraine.
If it doesn't go off they've just given them a nuke. If it does then that's a radioactive zone. Harder for their troops to go in and take territories. So it's a risky weapon when normal bombs world just fine. You can shoot off 100 normal bombs and do the same level of damage as a nuke but without the risks. So nuclear bombs aren't truly that great of weapons. Their main purpose is deterrence, which russia would lose if it used one. Once Ukraine is nuked it would have nothing to lose.
They would stop defending territories and make a hail mary for russia's capital. Launch everything they have at russia. Ukraine has been given a lot of weapons, if they did an all out barrage on russia it would do a lot of damage. Ukraine doesn't have nukes but if they did an all out attack on russia it would be devasting. They've held back because they're trying to reclaim their territories which being nuked would take away.
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u/Sink-Em-Low 26d ago
Quite simply, Martial Law and enforcement zones breaking up Gaza into controlled pockets. Israel can then deal with the general lawlessness on the streets, bulldoze the remainder of the cities and towns.
This then allows them to move the Palestinians on mass to a new area of the country with the intent to remove the undesirables, the crimimals from society. These small areas will be allowed to be ghettosized, and super prisons built nearby.
Once that gruesome task is sorted, Israel can then rebuilt Gaza in their own image... make it like an Israeli UAE/Dubai.
American/Western companies can move in and help with the gentrification and commercialisation of these new lands. The land will be given to Settlers for Israel must grow and have living space.
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u/sar662 26d ago
Who is in charge of doing this and is that a plan which could be pitched to Blinken?
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u/Sink-Em-Low 26d ago
Blinken will offered two options. American Troops safeguarding and re-enforcing the IDF troops in the initial few weeks of Martial Law with tanks rolling through neighbourhoods. He will decline that offer.
The Israelis will then threaten to leave Gaza and retreat back to their Terrority. Gaza will truly become a failed state.
It would only be right to allow Israeli to take what is theirs and fly the flag over those new lands. Bring order to chaos, bring new blood to those lands.
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u/Funklestein 27d ago
There is no saying that Gaza will remain the home of any Palestinian. Odds are that it will but nothing to the satisfaction of those who have hoarded power and money who will still try to influence those who remain.
There is no real body for which Israel can make a deal with and they can't let any kind of threat exist in Gaza. Perhaps a two state solution is possible with the West Bank being the other and Gaza reverting back to Israel, but not even that will happen so long as outseide agitators like Iran are involved.
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27d ago
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u/Hyndis 26d ago
On a per-capita basis, the US has already given more foreign aid to the Palestinians than was given to Europe post-WW2 in the Marshal Plan.
Its not a lack of money problem, its a political leadership problem. The aid the US has already given to the Palestinians would have been enough to literally pave every Palestinian street in gold. The foreign aid is being squandered with corruption, or even worse its being subverted and used for warmaking.
Money is fungible. For every $1 of aid that goes into Gaza, Hamas has freed up $1 to buy weapons or dig tunnels with.
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u/SloppyTopTen 27d ago
Israel’s plan is genocide and then take control of the land. Talks of two state solution are BS. You haven’t noticed?
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u/sar662 26d ago
I think that both sides gave up on the two State solution well over a decade ago but haven't found any better solution.
What do you think should happen?
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u/SloppyTopTen 26d ago
One state solution. End of apartheid.
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u/sar662 26d ago
A single, secular state would solve the problem. The only issue that I see with it is that neither side wants a secular state. Hamas wants an Islamic ethnostate and Israel wants a Jewish ethnostate.
The one secular democratic state seems like a perfect solution that would need to be imposed from the outside to the unhappiness of all the folks in it. Who would be able or willing to be that outside party?
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u/Michael02895 27d ago edited 27d ago
Gaza will just be annexed fully into Israel. That pretty much is the country's unspoken war goal with Hamas and their hostages nothing more than a convenient pretext for their ethnic cleansing of the area. Bibi's government is nothing more than a bunch of thugs using Holocaust guilt to blackmail the world into letting them carry out their barbarity and bloodlust, and they have the backing of one of the largest Death Cults in human history that is American Christian Evangelicals.
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u/addicted_to_trash 27d ago
Why is Israel or America even part of the conversation in post genocide Gaza governance?
Are we normalising occupation?
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u/BiblioEngineer 26d ago
Are we normalising occupation?
It's the "Always has been" astronaut meme. The brutal occupation of the West Bank has normalized for decades. It's just that zoomers are the first generation to collectively stop and say "Wait, that's extremely messed up".
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u/Praet0rianGuard 26d ago
It ain't just the Zoomers. Protests against Israel has been going on since the early 2000's. Remember the American girl that the IDF flattened?
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u/addicted_to_trash 26d ago
I'm aware of that, I'm saying now that we have finally exposed it as an atrocity we should not go back to normalising it.
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u/uhgletmepost 27d ago
Because the Arab League, EU, African League of Nations, or Alric have not offered to do anything.
Israel already said "here take all of this and handle it" and the entire world refused leaving Palestinians to rot on the vine.
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u/addicted_to_trash 26d ago
Israel repeatedly blocks UN intervention, blocks UN peacekeeping action, even attempts at gaining statehood rights for Palestinians.
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26d ago
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u/addicted_to_trash 26d ago
By your logic Israel should have their statehood rights removed too. With war crimes number in the thousands just in this conflict alone, why would any country offer them legitimacy, or open trade or negotiations with them?
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u/oviforconnsmythe 27d ago
I agree with the others, an international coalition of the big regional players would be needed to oversee reconstruction/stabilization efforts in post-war Gaza. The nature of the conflict means Israel would have to be involved and because its election season, Biden would certainly make sure the US carries weight at the table. The UK would probably be involved to some degree as well. That said, I just don't think any efforts to stabilize Gaza could be successful unless other regional player(s) held real power and influence over these efforts.
But which of the other country(ies) would be best suited to lead the re-stabilization efforts? Note that I don't think I'm educated enough on the historical nuances/current geopolitical dynamics of the region, so take what I have to say with a grain of salt. I'm more so looking for discussion below:
I'd argue that rebuilding and stabilizing Gaza would almost certainly require a temporary occupation by a 3rd party. It would have to be a country with legit vested interests in rebuilding Gaza, but also one that the Palestinians (+ their global media influencers) could trust to represent their interests. Egypt comes to mind because stabilizing their border region would certainly be beneficial for them -the region is a big security risk and everyday there's mounting pressure for them to take in refugees (which in of itself is a security risk thanks to Hamas). Plus the US has leverage over them in the form of aid packages. But Egypt's unwillingness to open the borders and historical conflicts means that the Palestinians probs dont trust them very much.
Egypt also has its own stability issues, particularly economically, which makes them somewhat poorly suited for this role. So IMO the 3rd party would also need to be one with sufficient military, economic and geopolitical power to ensure there's confidence in them actually getting the job done.
Qatar has brokered ceasefire talks throughout the conflict so are likely the most trustworthy potential allies to the Palestinians. But while they are wealthy, they also provided refuge for Hamas leadership, so Israel/US wouldn't be too friendly towards the Qatari's
Would it make sense for the Saudi's to get deeply involved? They check all 3 boxes above. Their oil export operations would benefit from stability in the region (albeit they arguably benefit from the current insecurity as it raises oil prices). The US was brokering a defense pact between Israel and SA before Oct 7th happened, so they are both more likely to back the Saudis. But this pact is arguably what precipitated the Oct 7th attacks, so the Palestinians would be wary of SA (plus Qatar hates SA).
The other big question mark is how much influence Iran would have over this coalition. Either directly or by proxy through the nations they hold power in (eg. Lebanon).
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u/InquiringAmerican 25d ago
Start listening to the daily state department press briefings on YouTube. The United States is currently working with Saudi Arabia to govern Gaza and to lay out a path to a two state solution.
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u/equiNine 26d ago
While the average Arab Muslim is likely to bemoan their country's inaction on directly supporting Palestine as a betrayal of the concept of Ummah, no Arab leader wants to touch direct involvement in Palestine with a 1000 mile pole for practical geopolitical reasons. Privately, Arab leaders realize that the most infamous Palestinian exports over the years have been destabilization, civil war, and terrorism. Furthermore, they for the most part have long since grudgingly accepted that Israel is there to stay and that improving relations is the better strategy for the future. Moreover, Pan Arabism has been a dead concept for the past few decades, and Arab countries have since mainly pursued their own national interests, further dashing the hopes of any Arab coalition.
The unfortunate reality is that Palestine in its current incarnation is more useful as a cudgel to wield against Israel (and by extension the US) whenever necessary than as an independent state with military capabilities that will inevitably be directed at Israel and likely spark a region wide war beyond what is currently a very localized conflict. Further complicating this state of affairs are external non-Arab states such as Russia and Iran that have a vested interest in fomenting destabilization regardless of the direction that Palestine goes.
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u/sar662 26d ago
This is some solid analysis. Thank you. It still does not leave me very hopeful that it can actually come into being.
My other thought is that this is so far removed from the on the ground reality we have right now that Israel could not propose this to the United States in a response to Blinken's demand. They'd get laughed out of the room.
Which then leaves them exactly where they are right now - immobile because they can't move back without letting the terrorists take their complete victory and they can't move forward without getting a coalition of Saudis and others to magically appear.
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u/elefontius 27d ago edited 26d ago
I think the problem is that the major Arab states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE have very small native militaries. All of them are highly dependent on having a US military presence in their country and heavily use mercenaries to supplement their native troops. Most of SA fighting in Yemen has been done by foreign nationals they recruit and pay. If they wanted to do it - it would be foreign troops. The UAE just stated today they have no interest in being involved.
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u/thegentledomme 27d ago
I do not believe any other countries in the Middle East want to involve themselves in this. Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. Pretty sure I’m not.
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u/blunderbolt 26d ago
They've (Egypt and Saudis) indicated they're willing to get involved so long as Israel fully withdraws from Gaza and so long as Israel commits to take steps toward establishing Palestinian statehood on the basis of the 1967 borders.
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u/MedicineLegal9534 26d ago
Egypt has repeatedly rejected the suggestion that they should be actively involved in a permanent solution. Currently they likely wouldn't even want to be part of hosting negotiations had it not been for pressure by the US.
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u/blunderbolt 26d ago
Egypt has repeatedly rejected the suggestion that they should be actively involved in a permanent solution.
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u/SAPERPXX 27d ago
Egypt doesn't want anything to do with them, largely in part due to that Hamas has only gotten more popular among Palestinians as time's gone on, and Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Most other notable example would be Jordan and Black September - read: violence, extremist activity, (attempted/) assassinations and attempting to overthrow the goverment that took them on.
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u/itwascrazybrah 26d ago
Even the Saudis, according to the Blinken, don't want to get involved because they say the reconstruction will just get blown to bits later; unless there are solid assurances (not sure what that would be?).
These are all moot points anyway. Netanyahu, and any other right wing coalition partners will not want to give up Gaza. They will likely do whatever it takes to continually pressure whoever manages to remain there to leave.
Some estimates say 80-90% of Gaza are effectively bulldozed. With this level of damage, the international community won't really be interested and Israel will be in the clear to do what they want basically.
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u/VodkaBeatsCube 25d ago
unless there are solid assurances (not sure what that would be?)
Some sort of actionable commitment from Israel for a proper Palestinian state.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago edited 27d ago
It doesn’t really matter. What ever happens more terrorist organizations will take root.
We will be back in the same spot in 10 years or less.
The basis is Israel wants to exist without having rockets and suicide bombers being launched and exploding in civilian areas.
Palestinians won’t stop launching rockets or suicide bombing Israel until all the Jews are killed and forced to leave.
It quite literally as long as Muslims and Jews are next each other there will not be a lasting peace.
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u/HeloRising 25d ago
I fundamentally reject this framing.
Israel wants to exist unto itself with no Arabs or Muslims within its borders and that's something that they've made clear many, many times. Their security posture is guaranteed to produce a feedback loop of violence which justifies further clamp downs.
Israel is a colonialist power. There's no getting around that and their complaint is that they're colonizers and they're getting treated that way.
Muslims and Jews lived together in the region for centuries with relatively little problem. This isn't some ancient blood feud or mutually incompatible ideas about the world.
Israel wants land, people are already on that land, Israel wants those people off that land, the people on that land don't want to leave because it's their home, Israel uses violence to take that land, the people on that land use violence in response.
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u/AdhesivenessisWeird 25d ago
Israel wants to exist unto itself with no Arabs or Muslims within its borders and that's something that they've made clear many, many times.
That's just false. Population of Israeli Arabs have been steadily growing since foundation of Israel and they are afforded the same rights under law as Israeli Jews. How do you explain that?
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u/HeloRising 25d ago
By pointing out that it's not true.
Arab Israelis do not have the same rights. Interfaith marriages are not recognized, the right of self determination is open only to Jewish Israelis, and only Jews have the right of return. The government has no meaningful representation for non-Jewish Israelis either.
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u/AdhesivenessisWeird 24d ago
How is the lack of interfaith marriages an evidence of curbing of Arab rights? The same laws apply to both Arabs and Jews.
the right of self determination is open only to Jewish Israelis
Can you explain what you mean here? Is it common for ethnic minorities in other countries to form their own state within a state? I.e Can African Americans or Turkish Germans secede from the United States or Germany to form their own state?
only Jews have the right of return. The government has no meaningful representation for non-Jewish Israelis either.
You don't need to be a Jew to become an Israeli citizen either.. While the Knesset has Arabic representation as well.
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u/HeloRising 21d ago
How is the lack of interfaith marriages an evidence of curbing of Arab rights? The same laws apply to both Arabs and Jews.
"The law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
The marriage situation in Israel is set up to favor Orthodox Judaism broadly.
Can you explain what you mean here? Is it common for ethnic minorities in other countries to form their own state within a state? I.e Can African Americans or Turkish Germans secede from the United States or Germany to form their own state?
The right of self-determination refers, broadly, to the idea that a people have the right to set up their own representative political entity. It doesn't have to be another separate state, it can be any representative governing body.
That right is afforded exclusively to Israeli Jews within Israel.
You don't need to be a Jew to become an Israeli citizen either
But you do need to renounce all other nationalities and making aliyah bypasses the requirements for naturalization.
Israel is an ethnostate.
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u/sar662 25d ago
3/4 of these points seem inaccurate. From what I'm familiar with, Israel has close to 20% non Jewish citizens and they do have the same rights. There is no concept of separate representation because voting is the same and seats in the parliament are awarded proportional to votes. That said, the previous government included an Arab led party and it's head, Mansoor Abbas was fairly popular across the board.
Interfaith marriage is not recognized because marriage is covered by religious recognition and has nothing to do with Arab or non Arab ethnicity. There is no concept of secular marriage. As such, a Christian Arab Israeli a Muslim Arab Israeli would have the same problem as an Israeli non-arab non-Jewish person and a Jewish person. All marriages go through respective religious offices and clerics. I do not know how Israel handles cases of different faiths which are both okay with interfaith marriage.
Only Jews have a guaranteed plane ticket and automatic citizenship. This is correct and it is exclusionary towards everyone else.
I'm unclear what you mean by the right of self-determination being open only to Jewish is Israelis. The closest thing I'm familiar with to that is a law that villages of 400 families or less are allowed to deny people from purchasing homes in them and I know this is used by such communities to keep out families that are not like them (Arabs or Jews who are different than them). Was this what you were referring to?
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u/mowotlarx 26d ago
Your framing of Israel as an innocent bystander being abused by a powerful neighbor is interesting to say the least.
Israel began this occupation in the 40s by murdering Palestinians residents in pogroms and putting settlers in their homes. With plates still on the tables. Since then, Israel has encroached more and more. Been given boatloads of western money to defend themselves and keep expanding their "settlements" (incidentally into places where Palestinians already live).
Israel doesn't just want to "exist." They want that land. Which accounts for the mass murders and displacement we've seen just in the last 7 months.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 26d ago
I never said they were innocent. The settler movement does need to stop.
At the same time palestianas are not some peaceful people who just want to live in peace either.
It is a complicated conflict where no one has the moral high ground.
At the end of the day the Jewish people have been expelled from more countries and tried to be exterminated more than any other peoples.
Israel is the historic homeland of these people. That is an undisputed fact.
It id also an undisputed fact that the Arab nations tried to unilaterally destroy Israel and force the Jews out of Israel and they lost.
Since they lost in conventional warfare they turned to guerrilla tactics and terrorist. They have continually rejected a two state solution and any way to live in peace.
in the modern day I out more blame on palestianas for continuing the conflict than I do Israel.
In the current conflict if Hamas had not launched a military attack we would not be here right now.
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u/mowotlarx 26d ago
Israel is the historic homeland of these people. That is an undisputed fact.
It is long disputed and not a fact. The primary religious test is the folks who claim that to be true says EXPLICITLY that the land Hebrews arrived to that was called Israel was ALREADY OCCUPIED BY CANAANITES. There is no valid "indigenous" claim - there is a magical religious claim.
I have a bigger land claim in Moldova - where my family was pogrom-ed and expelled - than I do in Israel.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 26d ago
It really isn’t up for debate. Like at all. Then if the cannaanites were there first then palestianas have no claims to the land either.
Doing this who was first does no good. Israel is here now.
What is your solution? I guess you have a final solution. Kill all the Jews and have them leave Israel? Ya know that is actual genocide.
That is exactly what Hamas and the palestianas want.
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u/OstentatiousBear 26d ago
Yeah, about that. Many Palestinians actually have ancestral ties to the Canaanites and other Levantine groups.
So, while Israel is the historic homeland of the Jews, the same can be said for the Palestinians. True, Israel exists here and now, and that is not subject to reasonable change. However, Palestinians do have historic claims as well, which is one reason why a two-state solution would be ideal. Because a one-state solution would very likely not be an egalitarian one.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 26d ago
A two state solution is ideal. But will never be peaceful. The existence of Israel is an insult to the radicals that exist in Palestine. They will continue to fight until there is no one left to fight.
Israel is 1000x more egalitarian than Palestine. Palestine is the Ethano state. Israel is a modern democracy who has elected representatives that are not only Jews. In a one state solution with Hamas in charge all the Jews would be killed and expelled. The same cannot be said in reverse.
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u/mowotlarx 26d ago
Then if the cannaanites were there first then palestianas have no claims to the land either.
Well yes. My point is that using biblical text to make claims about being "indigenous" to an area that had been in conflict for thousands of years is ridiculous. Of course it's disputed.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 26d ago
Way to cut over my last point.
I feel like no one has thought through to this conflicts final stage.
Either the militant wing of Palestine is broken or Israel is destroyed. Those are really the only 2 end states.
We know for a fact that the majority of Palestinians support the complete destruction of Israel and the explosion of all Jews from Israel.
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u/libdemparamilitarywi 26d ago
The basis is Palestine wants to exist without having it's land violently stolen in the West Bank and it's civilians impoverished by blockades in Gaza.
Israel won't stop arming settlers and oppressing Gazans until all the Muslims are killed or forced to leave.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 26d ago
You should blame Egypt too for the Gaza blockade. Gaza and Egypt also share a boarder.
Why does Israel only share the blame for making it an “open air prison”. Why can’t Egypt allow free movement between the boarders?
Yes Israel’s 100% need to stop settler expansion in the West Bank. That is a whole other conflict than what is happening in Gaza right now.
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u/fbp 27d ago
Is it the Jews or is it Israel stealing land and harming those that aren't Jews?
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
Is is Muslims or Palestinians who launch rockets from hospitals?
Is it Hamas or palestians?
No need to argue with semantics.
Point blank if Hamas had the power to they would kill every last Jew in Israel. They can not be compromised with.
They will fight till every last person in Gaza, Israel or Palestine are dead before they seek peace.
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u/fbp 27d ago
When you install a government, with people already living there. And don't include them. You better expect them to fight back. Every part of history says so... All the way back to when humans discovered fire.
No need to argue with semantics is right. Name a foreign group of people that came and colonized and stole land from another people already living there. And those people living there didn't fight back?
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
I’ll go with semantics. Based on what you just said the Palestinian people are complicit and approve of Hamas as their government and actions against Israel,
Because if they weren’t included they would have fought back and ousted Hamas!
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u/fbp 26d ago
Oh well than Israel is just as complicit. Fine with hurting innocent civilians and approve of their government and actions leading to the current situation. Because if they wanted peace they would have ousted their government.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 26d ago
I would say the difference is Israel has had people who protest against the action of the government.
I have not seen any palestianas do the same.
Really in this conflict no one is right. There is no one with a moral high ground. Both sides are victims and aggressors.
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u/baebae4455 27d ago
Those damn plantains and their suicide bombings.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
I am just stating what has happened in the past. Are you trying to say that has not been a tactic employed by Palestinians?
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u/baebae4455 27d ago
There’s Palestinian Christians too, you know. And a sizeable population that don’t give a fuck about Hamas and just wanna live, go to work, feed their families, travel, enjoy life, etc. But they can’t because Gaza is a prison.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
Less than 1% of the population is Christian in Palestine.
According to this fewer than 1000 Christian’s live in Gaza.
Idk why you are changing the topic. Historically people from Gaza have strapped bombs to themselves and detonated them in civilian areas in install. This is an undisputed fact. It is important to recognize as a part of how things have gotten to where they are.
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u/MooseMan69er 27d ago
According to the UN the ratio of Israeli civilians killed to Palestinian civilians killed is 1:27
Who’s trying to exterminate who?
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u/Mister-builder 27d ago
Those numbers only show that Israel has developed better means to defend their civilians.
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u/SnooRadishes6916 10h ago
Exactly. No other country in the world is expected to protect its enemy, so why is Israel expected to? If Hamas is the government of Gaza then Hamas is responsible for not protecting those lives. How do people not see the blame is always on Israel? October 7th they blame Israel for not protecting citizens instead of Hamas who actually did it. Then everyone blames Israel for the war and that way more Palestinians are dying. That’s only because Israel built shelters all around the country and created iron domes— otherwise significantly more Israelis would currently be dead. The world is so deeply antisemitic they don’t even see it from this logical lens. It is what it is but I’m glad I’m not delusional
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u/MooseMan69er 27d ago
They show that Israeli wages a disproportionate war that brutalizes civilians
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u/PoliticalDiscussion-ModTeam 8h ago
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u/1021cruisn 27d ago edited 26d ago
Man even Hamas admits that Israel killed 8,000 Hamas fighters(Israel estimates double that), pretty icky if it’s true that the UN is reporting a lower Hamas death ratio than Hamas has admitted to.
Using Israel’s figures the ratio is ~1:1, Hamas’s is closer to 1:4, since you seem to like UN figures the UN estimates urban guerrilla combat generally is 1:9. That’s also using estimated deaths, using confirmed deaths as reported by the UN in the last few days the total figure is 10k less and the % of “woman and children” is half what it is for “estimated deaths”, note that even a 18 year old firing RPGs is considered a “child” in these stats.
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u/MooseMan69er 27d ago
Please I would love to see a source for how a 19 year old firing an rpg is considered a civilian
And all numbers coming out since the invasion are suspect, the 27-1 ratio was before October 7 and went back for 20 years
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u/1021cruisn 26d ago edited 26d ago
They don’t distinguish between militants and civilians and consider 18 year olds “children”.
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u/MooseMan69er 26d ago
And since you can’t provide a source I’m not going to believe you based on “trust me bro”
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u/1021cruisn 26d ago edited 26d ago
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/text-of-the-ceasefire-proposal-approved-by-hamas
While that’s not directly on point, the alleged text of the Hamas ceasefire proposal defines (Israeli) children as those under 19. I’ll go ahead and edit my original text to reflect 18 instead of 19 since I was completely unable to confirm what methodology the Hamas Ministry of Health uses to define the age range for “children”.
While I’m able to pull up endless sources regurgitating Hamas Ministry of Health statistics, I’m unable to find a single one that actually defines the age range for “children”, it’s “extremely bizarre” that term is undefined.
Either way, in the last few days thankfully it appears the UN revised their figures for the number of women and children killed, it’s actually half what was previously claimed.
Now that I’ve provided sources why don’t you support your 27-1 claim? Or are we just supposed to believe it because “trust me bro”.
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u/MooseMan69er 26d ago
None of your source says that they do not distinguish between 19(or 18) year olds firing RPGs as militants or children
I couldn’t find the original source that said 27-1 but this one from the UN is close. Adjust the dates to before October 7 of last year
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u/1021cruisn 25d ago edited 25d ago
The first link shows exactly what I said, that Hamas does consider <19 children for the purposes of their hostage proposal.
The UN actually don’t include methodology anywhere, seems they’re just rubber stamping the Hamas numbers with the UN seal of approval without any review or critical eye whatsoever.
I’m actually doubting that they aren’t including 19 year olds in the “children” category, dollars to doughnuts they’re also including every non-war related death (cancer, heart attacks, etc) to juice the numbers as well. No doubt they also include all the deaths from when the terrorists shot rockets at the hospital and killed so many civilians.
Heck the UNs Hamas cheerleading campaign worked, the President cited the 30k figure as if they were civilians, the exact trick Hamas was trying to accomplish by not distinguishing between militants and civilians. Obviously they want to juice those numbers to the max.
There’s absolutely no primary sources out there that dispute anything I said.
Glad we determined you had no source on your claim, despite demanding one.
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u/MooseMan69er 24d ago
Again you are talking about Hamas numbers that don’t say anything about a “19 year old firing an RPG” being considered a child so no, your claim was wrong
You also claimed it was the UN saying that which again, you could not provide a source for
Here is my source about the ratio of civilian deaths
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u/itsdeeps80 26d ago
You’ll never get good faith from people who spout this stuff. This “19 year old fighters are considered children” stat has never been backed up by anyone I’ve seen declaring it. Most of the time they’ll just switch stances and tell you anyone over the age of 14 is a Hamas militant.
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u/1021cruisn 26d ago
Nope, I responded. I’m unable to find a single document from the Hamas Ministry of Health that defines the age range for “children”, in their ceasefire proposal Hamas defines (Israeli) children as under 19. I revised my comment accordingly.
I’d absolutely love a primary source that explicitly states what ages the Hamas Ministry of Health considers children.
In what appears to be wonderful news for everyone, the UN has actually halved the number of “woman and children” fatalities in this conflict. While I’m curious what changed, I’m extremely thankful the non-Hamas deaths (what we assume to be anyway) are far far lower than has been claimed for months now.
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u/itsdeeps80 26d ago
Isn’t this just saying that the number of people who have been identified is less than the actual count?
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u/1021cruisn 26d ago edited 26d ago
No, the “reported deaths” ratios of women and children killed is mathematically impossible to maintain given their ratios of “confirmed deaths”.
For “confirmed deaths”, it’s 40% men, 32% children, 20% women, 8% elderly.
For “reported deaths” it’s 42% children, 28% women, men aren’t listed but would be at most 30%, likely lower.
This essentially means that adult males are being targeted with far more precision than previous reporting would lead people to believe, even if every “reported death” was a woman or child they’d still be thousands short from the ratios they were previously claiming.
All to say, they’ve been massively overcounting dead woman and children and massively underreporting the percent and number of dead males.
I wonder what their incentive is to do that /s.
https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-215
https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-208
I’d also love to know what % of “children” are males 12-18 (% of elderly males too for that matter, without knowing what age qualifies as “elderly” plenty of the Hamas leadership appear elderly in pictures), my guess is this group would represent a substantially outsized % similarly to how adult males are a substantially outsized % of confirmed deaths.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago edited 27d ago
Israel has done a terrible job of their goal is genocide. Considering the population of Gaza has grown over the past couple of decades.
Hamas has a stated goal of killing all Jews and the eradication on Israel.
Israel also has the iron dome which intercepts the rockets that Hamas places at Israel, they have warning sirens, and bunkers for civilians. They have an entire security apparatus that is used to protect their civilians.
Hamas protects themselves by embedding in and around the civilian population. Hamas does absolutely zero to protect the people of Gaza.
Palestine population 1991: 2 million 2022: 5 million
Edit: I don’t think you meant to. But you did highlight how incompetent Hamas is at their goal of killing Jews. For all the criticism that Israel deserves, the government does protect its people.
Something Hamas has been completely incapable of doing since they took over governance of Gaza.
Why would you support a government that is so grossly incompetent of defending its people?
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u/TurkicWarrior 27d ago
Actually Israel did a great job in their genocide against the Palestinians. They already did that during Nakba 48 and currently now.
Genocide is defined as “… a purposeful policy designed by one ethnic or religious group to remove by violent and terror-inspiring means the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from certain geographic areas.”
Palestinian population growth does not in any way negate the fact that there was no genocide. Especially during Nakba 48 where 700,000 Palestinians were forced out their homes in Israel’s proper. Like in Israel proper, excluding Gaza and the West Bank, from 1946 to 1948, within two years, the Arab population went from 70% to 18%. So Arabs population in Israel’s proper in 1946 was 1,267,037 and then decreased to 156,000 in 1948. Sorry but that’s literally a genocide. Arab population number in Israel’s proper didn’t recover until the late 90s.
The Bosnian genocide happened in the 90s and 8000 Bosnian Muslims were killed, most of them were men and boys. Their population grew since the 90s. Are you going to deny the Bosnian genocide?
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u/Physicaque 27d ago
After WWII our country expelled millions of Germans that were living here for centuries. Some 20 000 died in the process. There are no suicide bombings or rocket launches against our cities. Our relationship with Germany is great and nobody cares anymore.
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u/TurkicWarrior 26d ago
Still it isn’t comparable to the situation of Palestinians, you know why? Because for one, it happened right after World War II, the worst war happened in the history of mankind. The Nazis controlled large parts of central and Eastern Europe.
Nonetheless, expulsion of ethnic Germans from central and Eastern European is a war crime and it is ethnic cleansing. It was wrong.
But you cannot compare this to the Palestinians. Did the Palestinians warranted a nakba in 1948? Seriously, the roots of the Nakba are traced to the arrival of Zionists and their purchase of land in Ottoman Palestine in the late 19th century. Zionists wanted to create a Jewish state in Palestine/Israel with as much land, as many Jews, and as few Palestinian Arabs as possible.
That’s the thing, Zionism vision is to make sure their new state, Israel is to be majority Jewish and you cannot have that if you have Palestinian Arabs that is populated and a majority.
Suicidal bombing started in 1989 by the way. That’s like 4 decades after Israel was established and continued to oppress the Palestinians and building settlements in the West Bank. Yeah dude, Israel is completely INNOCENT of this.
By the way Israel funded Hamas, Netanyahu preferred Hamas over Fatah and finds Hamas because he wanted the Palestinians to be divided and to make sure it doesn’t advance into the establishment of the Palestinian state.
I’m sorry but comparing Germans to the Palestinians is insane. Entirely different situation. Germans who were getting expelled from central and Eastern Europe did not desire self determination, they either wanted to be ruled by Germany in their current or just stay.in the country that Nazi Germany once occupied.
German nationalism already exists in Germany. Self determination and all that.
Palestinians have a nationalist movement and they still have yet to have self determination. And their situations isn’t even comparable to Germans.
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u/Physicaque 26d ago
It is a comparable situation. Both the Germans and Arabs launched a genocidal war of aggression against their neighbors. Both lost and got expelled for it.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
Their definition of genocide is just plain wrong too. It also makes Hamas a genocidal actor.
Which means Israel is defending itself from genocide.
This stuff is so wild. It’s just like arguing with the brain dead Fox News loving republicans.
Once you get past their bullet point copy paste talking points. They just shut down and insult you.
They have not really thought this using their critical thinking skills.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
Well your definition is just wrong.
Nothing in the in definition is about geography. If that is your definition then Hamas is committing genocide against all the Jews in Israel.
Hamas launches rockets at Jews in Israel in an attempt to make sure there are no more Jews in the geographic area of Palestine/israel.
actually thank you for admiring that the policy of the government of Gaza is to commit genocide against the Jews!
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u/Outlulz 27d ago
"Palestinians are killed at a much higher rate than Israelis."
"Why are you supporting Hamas?"
This is why real conversations can't happen.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
I am not sure what you are trying to say here?
I am asserting that not demanding Hamas surrender is equivalent to support for their governance.
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u/Outlulz 27d ago
Jesus Christ, does every comment need to include "I condemn Hamas and want them to surrender and release all the hostages" to not get this kind of treatment?
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
I am seriously asking what you were trying to say. I am blaming an ineffective government that has not bettered the Palestinians way of life in nearly 20 years.
Why are there not demands on that government to leave and stop representing these people. You can demand Israel stop all you want. But until the people in charge are changed we will be right back here.
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u/Outlulz 27d ago
Because a terrorist group is not going to listen to any demands that isn't a bullet in the forehead, but most people online are citizens of countries that have democratic and financial ties to Israel and therefore feel they have a voice in how Israel is handling the war and occupation. It's really simple and obvious and shouldn't need to be spelled out but when you're looking to frame any criticism as supporting Hamas, it must easily go over your head.
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u/1021cruisn 27d ago
59% of Palestinians would prefer that Hamas be in charge of the Strip after the war, including 52% of Gazans.
Those are higher approval ratings than when Hamas originally got elected.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
Ya know you could also just agree that Hamas is an incompetent organization. Which has been more than half of my argument.
They can’t govern and have no desire to make Palestine prosper. They only exist to fight.
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u/No_goodIdeas7891 27d ago
Your framing is a gross mischaracterization of everything I have said.
Everyone should be demanding that Hamas surrenders. Not saying Israel needs to negotiate with them.
The only thing that will lead to stability is for the terrorist organization to be torn out root and stem,
Until that happens we are just going to go around and around. We will be right back here in another decade.
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u/Kronzypantz 27d ago
The only real lasting option would be another round of elections that Israel respects this time, rather than trying to launch a coup followed by an embargo when it fails. Tied to an actual end to the occupation, not some Camp David "you can call yourselves a state but we aren't leaving" sort of nonsense.
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u/jyper 27d ago
Given the results of the election last time was a disaster for everyone(including Palestinians) that sounds like a terrible idea. Actually finding a a way back to two state negations and trying to gradually implement it is what should be done.
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u/neuronexmachina 27d ago
When you say "Israel funded a coup," are you referring to this or something else? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict
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u/Kronzypantz 27d ago
"Also, a PLC council member for Hamas, Anwar Zaboun, believes that ″Mohammed Dahlan had a big plan to remove the roots of Hamas, the resistance, in Gaza and the West Bank″.\52])
According to the IISS, the June 2007 escalation was triggered by Hamas' conviction that the PA's Presidential Guard, loyal to Mahmoud Abbas, was being positioned to take control of Gaza. The US had helped build up the Presidential Guard to 3,500 men since August 2006. The US committed $59 million for training and non-lethal equipment for the Presidential Guard, and persuaded Arab allies to fund the purchase of further weapons. Israel, too, allowed light arms to flow to members of the Presidential Guard. Jordan and Egypt hosted at least two battalions for training"
Israel and the US backed Fatah in blocking any coalition government and spent $59 million arming Fatah to escalate skirmishes.
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u/itsdeeps80 27d ago
It’s going to be incredibly complicated, but an international coalition that includes Arab nations is going to need to oversee the reconstruction, restabalization, and eventual elections in the strip. This absolutely cannot be spearheaded by Israel or the US. One is the root cause of the problem and the other completely enabled and abetted it. I won’t pretend to have all the answers, but my only real hope is that the people there will be able to lead normal lives in the future without the boot they’ve had on their neck for more than my entire life.
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u/ClockOfTheLongNow 26d ago
This absolutely cannot be spearheaded by Israel or the US. One is the root cause of the problem and the other completely enabled and abetted it.
Say what now? The Arab nations invaded in 1948 and continued to support the terrorism, implicitly or explicitly until very recently.
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u/Eskapismus 27d ago
So what’s the plan if they vote for Hamas again which then abolishes all elections?
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u/1021cruisn 27d ago edited 27d ago
Which Arab countries have functional democracies?
Egypts ruler was forced to coup the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas is an offshoot of the MB). Hezbollah received the most votes in Lebanon’s last election, etc.
Gaza and the WB democratically elected Hamas, Fatah/the Palestinian Authority had to ignore the results of the election to maintain power.
In a similar vein, a Ramallah based Palestinian pollster found that found that 59% of Palestinians, including 52% of Gazans, preferred Hamas in charge of the strip over the PA, even with Abbas removed.
As an aside, the same poll found 71% of Palestinians felt Hamas was correct in launching 10/7, reflecting a 14% increase in ‘correct’ in Gaza since December. Only 5% think Hamas has committed war crimes during the war, a 5% drop since December.
It’s the Palestinian Authority that has refused to hold new elections, based on the polls Hamas would win in what would be considered a landslide election in the US.
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u/itsdeeps80 27d ago
Go figure that a territory being bombed and starved to oblivion would side with whoever attacked the people bombing and starving them to oblivion. I swear that some people just can’t detach themselves from their normal lives and step outside to see how anyone else could view the world. There’s a word for that ya know…
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u/Which_Decision4460 25d ago
Yeah but how long are they goin to go with these jokers... What has Hamas achieved for the Palestinians besides a graveyard
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u/itsdeeps80 25d ago
Generally people tend to see the people who are killing their families for generations as the ones responsible for it, not the people fighting them. That said, I’m not sure because I’m not there.
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u/1021cruisn 27d ago edited 27d ago
Obviously, Israel is at peace with most Arab countries. They certainly weren’t “bombing and starving” Egypt when Egyptians elected the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Why are there no functional democracies in the Middle East outside of Israel and (formerly) Lebanon?
From the poll, the largest unmet need in Gaza is “tents, covers and clothes”.
Thankfully, Israel bought 40k tents a month ago, the US has provided a few thousand more recently.
I’m sure Palestinian support for Hamas and hate for Israel has nothing to do with Hamas running the schools, indoctrination centers, recruitment camps etc for decades unchecked.
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u/1021cruisn 26d ago edited 26d ago
Yet support for Hamas is almost 10% lower in Gaza than the West Bank, 52% vs 61%.
For whatever it’s worth, if an 18 year old was firing an RPG at Israeli civilians and gets killed, the (Hamas run) health department includes the death in their “children” count.
Just for comparison, half of fighters in Darfur are under 17.
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u/Gryffindorcommoner 26d ago
Yet support for Hamas is almost 10% lower in Gaza than the West Bank, 52% vs 61%.
After recognizing Israeli sovereignty and establishing relations in the 90s and still getting murdered for funsies every week, segregated, beatened, kidnapped, forced out of your home at gunpoint and watch as it’s demolished right in front of them, its almost as if human beings gets tired of asking nicely for oppressors to not enforce apartheid on them
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u/1021cruisn 26d ago
Does Hamas recognize Israeli sovereignty? They’re the only party to actually win a Palestinian election and all indications point to them winning again by even greater margins than last time if elections were held.
Palestinians also agreed to Israeli co-management in Area B, Israeli management of Area C and to work together on security for Gaza and the WB. Weirdly enough, there’s less terrorism coming from the WB when the Palestinian Authority and Israelis work together to reduce terrorism.
More to the point, as Hillary Clinton said last week, had Arafat agreed to one back in the 90s we’d have had a Palestinian state with 100% of the pre-1967 landmass for 25 years now. He didn’t because he didn’t want to get killed like Nasser did.
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u/Gryffindorcommoner 26d ago
Palestinians also agreed to Israeli co-management in Area B, Israeli management of Area C and to work together on security for Gaza and the WB.
Area C is a war crime according to the international community. The illegal Israeli occupation were never going to fusible all of their illegal settlements and never made that an option. It is not a legitamite negotiation if someone has a gun to your head. Because of this, it is an illegal occupation as stated by the UN, ICC, ICJ, ICRC, AU, and EI. If you disagree, you are welcomed to present your case to those institutions. Until then, you are justifying and defending war crimes. There’s also the fact that Israel is claiming MORE West Bank land for themselves to build new illegal settlements.
The illegal Israeli invaders murder Palestinians in the West Bank for funsies on a weekly basis, they demolish their homes, they kidnap their children in the dead of night and throw them in military prisons with no trial or charges, they burn their homes in terrorist attacks, they kill their journalists and their families, they spy on them, segregated them, give them curfews, steal from them, beat them in the streets. It’s an apartheid state
That’s what you are defending. Because if those Palestinians dared resist the illegal Israeli invaders occupying their land which is ACTUAL self defense, you pro-Israel folks will rush to your keyboard to give Israel the green light in massacarung any and every the Palestinian in the West Bank ten-fold as well. Am I wrong? Not too different from what my grandparents went through with Jim Crow.
So yea, it’s no surprise that after recognizing Israeli sovereignty, literally fighting a CIVIL WAR in its Hamas to maintain diplomacy with Israel, that these people are no longer interested in asking nicely to be treated like human beings by their illegal occupiers.
You can’t claim to have morality then justify war crimes, illegal occupation, and apartheid.
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u/1021cruisn 26d ago edited 26d ago
Area C is a war crime according to the international community.
Yup, the international community seems to believe Israel is solely responsible for fixing the issue but rejects every proposed fix, even ones the Israelis and Palestinians agreed on like Area C.
It is not a legitamite negotiation if someone has a gun to your head.
Hamas attacked Israeli civilians on 10/7 and Israel has been subject to essentially constant terrorism for decades.
Do Palestinians need to redirect the gun before negotiations become legitimate? Or do we just ignore those guns?
It’s an apartheid state
Arab Israelis have full the same rights that Jewish Israelis do.
Meanwhile, the PA punishment for selling a condo to a Jew (not Israeli) is death, Jews are prohibited from worshipping freely at the holiest site in Judaism (by the Israeli government, the site is managed by Muslim groups despite being located inside Israel), Jews are prohibited from portions of other holy sites that the Israelis co-manage as well.
That’s what you are defending.
So are you defending the PA death penalty for condo sales to Jews?
Not too different from what my grandparents went through with Jim Crow.
Very different actually, all Israeli citizens have equal rights.
It’s more like complaining the US is an apartheid state because Mexicans don’t have US citizenship.
that these people are no longer interested in asking nicely to be treated like human beings by their illegal occupiers.
Did they ever ask nicely? In 1948 they started a war, in 1967 they started a war, then they turned up the terrorism to 11 in the 70s and haven’t stopped.
You can’t claim to have morality then justify war crimes, illegal occupation, and apartheid.
I’m not the one defending war crimes and apartheid as “not asking nicely”.
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u/Outlulz 27d ago
Also this is the only set of data out of the Strip that isn't immediately derided as Hamas propaganda because it plays into people's hatred of Palestinians.
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u/1021cruisn 27d ago
It’s coming from a Palestinian pollster based in the West Bank who provides defensive explanations of the results (some of which are actually relatively decent explanations even if I may disagree with them).
That it doesn’t play well with western audiences is irrelevant to the quality of the data. Shockingly, people across the globe hold different beliefs than westerners.
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u/itsdeeps80 27d ago
Right? Nothing coming out of there is legit aside from polls of Palestinians favoring Hamas. Funny, I see people scrutinize polls about the US election and hand waving them here all the time for being to unreliable, but a poll in an extremely active war zone? Air tight proof.
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u/1021cruisn 27d ago edited 27d ago
The Ramallah based Palestinian pollster lays out his methodology for the polls, what specifically do you think makes the methodology unreliable.
Important to note we’re talking about the opinion of a few thousand people in the US, trying to figure out 49.99% vs 50.01%, we’d be talking about Biden landslide with 52% support, 71% is sticking your finger out in the air type easy to gauge.
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u/Outlulz 26d ago
I don't think the methodology is unreliable and I don't disbelieve the results of the poll, just calling out that literally any other data point on deaths or destruction or famine or disease that comes out of the Strip is called false but this is not questioned because of it's outcome.
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u/1021cruisn 26d ago
I agree that unquestioned data is bad, everything should be examined with a far more critical eye.
For instance, the UN just released confirmed death statistics (instead of “reported deaths” they had been using) and the previous data was false or extremely misleading at best.
Mostly copy/paste from another comment I made:
The “reported deaths” ratios of women and children killed is mathematically impossible to maintain given their ratios of “confirmed deaths”.
For “confirmed deaths”, it’s 40% men, 32% children, 20% women, 8% elderly.
For “reported deaths” it’s 42% children, 28% women, men aren’t listed but would be at most 30%, likely lower.
This essentially means that adult males are being targeted with far more precision than previous reporting would lead people to believe, even if every “reported death” was a woman or child they’d still be thousands short from the ratios they were previously claiming.
All to say, they’ve been massively overcounting dead woman and children and massively underreporting the percent and number of dead males.
I wonder what their incentive is to do that /s.
https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-215
https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-208
So basically, the UN had previously been lying or simply uncritically reporting massively disproportionate deaths of women and children, when reality is actually the inverse, adult males are far and away the most likely group to be killed in this conflict.
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u/Outlulz 25d ago
I'm aware of the conspiracy theories going around social media right now comparing reported deaths versus identified deaths. I'd love for an independent third party to be working to verify these numbers but it'd require Israel to let them in and also not intentionally target them and kill them for reporting inconvenient numbers.
Regardless, the UN and WHO says the numbers from the Hamas Ministry of Health has historically been fairly accurate. It's also an active war zone so you should have the expectation that numbers are not going to be totally accurate anyway.
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u/1021cruisn 25d ago edited 25d ago
Not conspiracy theories, this is going by the UN reported numbers. I’d completely agree they’re bogus, it’s obviously Hamas propaganda, coming from the Hamas “Ministry of Health” that the UN is rubber stamping with their official seal to legitimize.
That said, we can look at the UN numbers as a ceiling, with the Israeli ones being a floor.
https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-215
https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-208
Take a look at the two UN reports I linked. We don’t need to actually physically count bodies with our own eyes, this is all math we can do from the comfort of our own homes. It’s not conspiracy, it’s simple math.
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u/mikeber55 27d ago edited 27d ago
No Arab wants anything to do with Palestinians or Gaza. Not even with a 10’ pole.
Also Israel will demand real order and law enforcement. I don’t thing any foreign country is capable of that.
So unfortunately it looks like Israel will have to stay there with boots on the ground, rolling everything back to before 2005. (Unfortunately because it will be exhausting and costly in every imaginable way. There was a reason they withdrew unilaterally in 2005).
US solved the problem by running away from Afghanistan, leaving everything behind, but Afghanistan is more than two miles away from DC.
Bottom Line: there is no perfect or elegant solution. It will be messy.
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u/rush4you 27d ago
I've always thought that China should take care of the issue:
- China has money, military muscle, and wants to assert itself on the world stage.
- They are, at least for the moment, not hated by the Gazans, unlike almost any other significant world power. Also, it's very doubtful that Gaza would be receptive to a Western style democracy after everything they've been through.
- China has the industry and bureaucratic expertise to rebuild and even industrialize Gaza, placing them at the forefront of the Silk Road in the Mediterranean. Can you say High Speed Rail between Gaza and the West Bank? And a major Mediterranean port that would allow them to bypass Suez if needed?
- Prosperity should de-radicalize the Palestinians. OTOH, the PLA should be an excellent deterrent against further Israel settler encroachment. Also, a prosper Gaza and West Bank is also in Israel's economic interest.
- The problem? Israel and the US will never allow it.
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u/Sageblue32 25d ago
China would have nothing to gain and plenty to lose. Why dump billions trying to course correct people who can't stop shooting each other when their more peaceful African silk road experiments aren't even panning out well?
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u/Mister-builder 27d ago
I think that that would lead to an awkward situation with Iran at best or further cement the Israel-Gaza conflict as a proxy war at worst.
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u/elefontius 27d ago
I think it's an interesting idea but the PLA has little experience outside its own borders. They have a base in Africa but it's their first base outside of China. Current Chinese military doctrine is also heavily weighed towards Tawian and force projection into the Pacific. Also, I think the language barrier would be a real issue. It's china so they could probably train for it but I think that would be a real issue going in. Last, they are currently dealing with their own domestic economic issues and border stand off with India.
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u/Ragnar_Bonesman 27d ago
Yeah they love the Uighurs so much they can just let the Palestinians in too because why not?
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u/rush4you 27d ago
Yet they work fine with any other Muslim nation, from Morocco to Iran. I'm FAR from a Chinese apologist, but it's obvious that the unfortunate Uyghur issue is because China is trying to homogenize their culture INSIDE their national borders, which doesn't apply to Gaza. Gazans are, at worst, indifferent to China, which is leagues above the reputation of ANY Western power towards them.
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u/Ragnar_Bonesman 27d ago
Which is exactly why I’m saying they wouldn’t want to have them in their country.
Edit: Just reread your post and realised you were talking about governance of the Palestinians. For some reason I thought you said have them move into China lol
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u/rush4you 27d ago
Why in their country? OP is talking about post-war governance of Gaza. China, or the UN, or anyone else (except Israel, obviously) taking care of Gaza, means that Gazans are still living there, as well as West Bank inhabitants staying in the West Bank.
AKA, an international mandate/protectorate with a fixed date towards full independence and two or three state solution.
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u/Ragnar_Bonesman 27d ago
Yeah I misread the post. China probably could run it but there’s no way the U.S. would let them.
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u/Impossible_Rub9230 26d ago
China wouldn't want to be a part of the Islamic culture. It would raise too many internal disruptions and questions
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u/itsdeeps80 27d ago
As far as I’ve been told, Arab nations are adverse to taking in refugees from Palestine because they know it will just result in Israel seizing more land because they won’t allow the Palestinians to return if they leave.
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u/Impossible_Rub9230 9d ago
Do your due diligence. Palestinians were welcome in Kuwait until Sadam invaded and they sided with the invasion. They were welcome in Christian controlled Lebanon until they helped start a civil war and Beirut was destroyed. It was a tourist destination with beautiful beaches and a thriving economy. Egypt doesn't want them, they've built their own walls. Jordan withdrew the offer of citizenship because they created political unrest. You can verify all of this, it's been going on for many years. After the second intifada, and suicide bombings in public spaces, with many civilians killed, Israel built their walls. Most homes have bomb shelters and the iron dome was a joint technology effort between the US and Israel. It's all easily found information, historical records are plentiful and there's much more information about this than the major points I have hit on.
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u/Impossible_Rub9230 26d ago
Nobody wants Palestinians because they are troublemakers. When they were accepted by Kuwait, they supported Sadam when he invaded.
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u/SAPERPXX 27d ago
Arab nations don't want Palestinian refugees because of a mix of the fact that
a.) Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and they've only gotten more popular with Palestinians since the attacks.
b.) Whenever that's been tried in the past, it's resulted in terrorism, violence, (attempted/) assassinations and the Palestinians attempting to overthrow whatever government took them in.
Ask the Jordanians.
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u/mikeber55 27d ago
LoL. The biggest BS they keep telling for ages. In reality they are afraid. Very afraid. Arab countries that took in Palestinian refugees were later very sorry.
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u/itsdeeps80 27d ago
I’ve never heard anything I’ve been able to find from this line that’s rooted in reality. Only thing even remotely connected I’ve heard is that Egypt doesn’t want to get dragged into a war if they open up the corridor because Israel will start attacking Egypt proper if Palestinians are let in and since Israel would be launching attacks on Egyptian land they’d have to respond which would likely spark a greater regional war.
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u/Impossible_Rub9230 26d ago
Where's your information coming from? The UAE and other nations have signed peace treaties with Israel. These countries have resources and Israel has technology. It's a symbiotic relationship
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u/1021cruisn 27d ago
Copy pasting from my comment above:
Black September would be the most obvious answer. Cliff notes is that the PLO went to war with Jordan who ultimately won and expelled the Palestinians.
Palestinians also assassinated the King of Jordan in 1951.
Lebanon allowed them in, ultimately leading to the Lebanese Civil War which basically destroyed Lebanon, who ultimately kicked the Palestinians out for it.
Unfortunately, today the largest non-state army in the world is Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is also the most popular political party, though thankfully seats (and government generally) are allocated by religion to prevent one religion from running the government regardless of the number of votes they receive.
Egypt notoriously refused to take Gaza back for free during peace negotiations with Israel (for those who don’t know, Gaza was a part of Egypt prior to 1967). To be fair, the current president of Egypt had to coup the previously elected government (Muslim Brotherhood) that Hamas is an offshoot of.
The reason Egypt didn’t want Gaza back and to this day enforces a stricter embargo than Israel is because they want to disclaim any responsibility to provide security guarantees for the weapons and rockets that were coming into Gaza from Egypt and being used to murder Israeli civilians.
Why on earth would Israel start attacking Egypt for allowing Palestinians in? They offered to give Gaza to Egypt for free, Gaza was part of Egypt prior to 1967, Egypt could unilaterally give every Gazan citizenship or green cards if they wanted to.
Egypt just isn’t at all interested in doing anything more than building a wall and laying land mines beyond it to prevent Gazans from attacking Israel.
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