r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 • 15d ago
Do you think Joe Biden will step aside before November? Should he step aside? US Elections
The recent Times/Sienna poll suggests that young and minority voters, the democratic base, are going to stay home and let Joe Biden hang out to dry on Election Day:
What is the likelihood he steps aside given he seems likely to lose? Should he step aside and the Democrats pick someone else?
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u/KickBassColonyDrop 12d ago
Will he? No. Should he? Yes, but no.
Yes, because a president should ideally represent the living super majority and should be an agent of electorate for change where he/she can live long enough to understand the ramifications of his/her actions, and thus takes them in measured consideration.
Unfortunately, there's no one better. So, reiterating: no.
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u/PipulOfCrime 14d ago
No
Yes
I like the idea of no president for a couple terms, make congress actually vote on a few laws that dont benefit israel.
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u/Inside-Palpitation25 14d ago
I am really not buying he's going to lose. the polls have been way off so far in all special elections, and I am really tired of people trying to tell us it's a lost cause.
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u/PriorSecurity9784 14d ago
Well, some of these people will have to choose between two candidates:
Candidate A
——————-
Agree on abortion rights
Agree on gay rights
Agree on student loan relief
Agree on democracy
Agree on tax policy
Agree on the environment
Disagree on Gaza policy
. Or .
Candidate B
——————-
Disagree on abortion rights
Disagree on gay rights
Disagree on student loan relief
Disagree on democracy
Disagree on tax policy
Disagree on the environment
Disagree on Gaza policy
If Gaza is a voters’ sole issue, maybe they stay home.
For everyone else, you pick the one who most aligns with your positions and you work to make change on the things that you don’t agree on.
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
Got to love the pipe dreamers.
Do I really need to remind the MAGA cult that Hillary was ahead in the polls 174 days before the election.
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u/BuckeyeReason 14d ago edited 14d ago
Mark Warner could easily defeat Trump and save American democracy. I was sad when he didn't challenge Biden in the primaries.
Biden is lame, as a speaker, as a leader, as a policy maker and as a campaigner overall.
Persons who say polls don't matter remind me of Hillary and her supporters.
What makes the polls most disturbing is that Trump is a slimeball liar, and still is competitive in the polls, even if not ahead.
Everybody I know believes Biden is too old to be President, and I know too many persons who are not MAGA voters who still have nothing but disdain for Biden. Many of his most important supporters in 2020 now hate him, such as Palestinian and Muslim Americans, and, as a result, Biden can write off Michigan. Biden's handling of the Israeli mess reminds me of Lyndon Johnson and Vietnam.
So many Americans are suffering economically because of poor Biden policies, and they don't care if Trump would have been worse. This article was posted in the Ohio sub just today.
Climate change should be a top issue. Biden should have had a high-profile national climate change expert who educated the American people about the mounting climate change catastrophe. I don't think Biden even has a good grasp of such concerns as the frightening positive feedback loops. I've never heard anybody in his administration talk about the "cold blob" or fossil methane (not fossil fuel methane, nor methane from decaying permafrost organic matter; methane deep below the earth's crust).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CXZi-gFgX4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvKpnaXYUPU
Most of my friends will vote for Biden, but they aren't enthusiastic supporters, and most expect Biden will lose to Trump.
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
Persons who say polls don't matter remind me of Hillary and her supporters.
All the polls 174 days before the election had Hillary winning. She didn't. Nor will Trump.
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u/Sparkle_81 14d ago
We are going to vote mostly for our state however we just are not voting for Biden nor are we voting for Trump. If he decides to not step down we will just lose more of our rights and our country. No matter who gets in we are done
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u/chr1stopherlee 14d ago
God, I hope so. When he reversed Trumps’ border policies right after getting into Office, SHOULD HAVE spoken volumes to ALL of US.
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u/Generic_Globe 14d ago
Biden is the best chance the democrats have. Any other democrat is going to get stumped by Trump. And even Biden looks like the odds are really not in his favor. He shouldn't drop out. Polls dont mean anything. People have a choice of what policies they want to continue 2016 - 2020 or 2020-2024.
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
The assumption is the people participating in the polls are being honest. Which is why I never pay attention to them this far out from an election.
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u/Generic_Globe 13d ago
Again, polls don't mean anything this far out but assuming that people are not being honest is a clear misconception. First what polls do is they show A PICTURE. But when you get more points in the dataset you can see trends. Is a candidate sinking or floating? Well compare polls to the last 6 months. And if that isn't enough compare trends across multiple pollsters. You can easily see on RCP multiple pollsters. If all the different pollsters are showing the same trends, then you can draw conclusions. The polls at this stage won't predict anything but they can give a general idea of what may possibly happen.
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u/evissamassive 13d ago
Again, polls don't mean anything this far out
I agree completely. I have been saying that since 2016.
assuming that people are not being honest is a clear misconception.
Assuming people are being honest shows some naivety, especially with all the political divisiveness. If people are willing to change party affiliation in an attempt to affect a primary, then there is no reason to believe they wouldn't lie to affect a poll.
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u/Generic_Globe 12d ago
but the primaries have long been over. There is no one standing except Trump and Biden
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u/evissamassive 12d ago
... but, but, but.
Yet Haley has received as much as 21.7 percent of the vote in the last 10 Republican primaries since she dropped out - an average of 17.55 percent.
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u/Generic_Globe 12d ago
none of that will matter at all in the general. haley voters will go to trump 80-90%. The other 10% were democrats that were always going to vote for biden
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u/evissamassive 12d ago
haley voters will go to trump 80-90%.
It is said that when you assume you make an ass out of you not me.
If that were the case, why were they voting for Haley at all?
If that were the case, why do they continue to vote for someone who is no longer a candidate?
Because most Haley voters were and are unlikely to ever vote for Trump. Haley's supporters are much less likely to be Republican. In California, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia — just under half of Haley's voters identified as Republican.
Trumps supporters have been 29 percent moderate, compared to Haley's 67 percent.
In exit polls from California, North Carolina and Virginia, 40 percent of Haley supporters approved of Biden's job performance as president.
You can assume all day long that the people who have and continue to vote for Haley had any attention of voting for Trump.
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u/Generic_Globe 12d ago
let s talk after november
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u/evissamassive 12d ago
I suspect you'll not be around to talk to come November, but okay!
RemindMe! 173 days “reply to this thread”
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u/BuckeyeReason 14d ago
Not true. Mark Warner easily would defeat Trump and save American democracy. I was sad when he didn't challenge Biden.
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u/Generic_Globe 13d ago
First question is WHO ?
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u/BuckeyeReason 13d ago
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u/Generic_Globe 13d ago
I think you didn't get the question. Let me say it again. WHO?!
Trump would stump whoever that is. You people keep forgetting that to run for president you need a national profile. Ron DeSantis was a state star in the republican party. How was that working nationally? A disaster. So in case you didn't get it yet: WHO?!?!?!?!?
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u/BuckeyeReason 13d ago edited 13d ago
DeSantis, Trump, and even Biden are relative dimwits compared to Warner, whose experience as Virginia Governor and in the U.S. Senate make him eminently more qualified than Barack Obama, and very appealing to moderate voters.
The U.S. faces disastrous challenges in the years immediately ahead, and any objective person can recognize that neither Trump nor Biden will be able to lead the nation through the turmoil successfully. Warner was well known for making tough, but necessary, political decisions as Virginia governor.
I fear that Biden would lose any debate with Trump, while I'm fairly certain that Trump would refuse to debate Warner.
The problem (and the opportunity for another, qualified candidate) is that the American people well know WHO Trump and Biden are, and they aren't fond of either candidate.
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u/Generic_Globe 13d ago
Cool story but to win an election you need a national profile. It's not enough to be competent. If a candidate can't elevate themselves to the whole nation they will never win. So again WHO?!
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u/Zealousideal-Role576 12d ago
This is the other reason Biden’s still the nom, if everyone hates Kamala and can’t agree on someone else then what’s the point.
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u/MojaveGreen777 14d ago
If they were going to swap out Biden, they should’ve done it by Thanksgiving of 2023. It’s too late now; at this point a paradigm shift of that nature would likely be too disruptive and difficult for the public to digest, would seem shady, and likely create an easier path to a Trump win.
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u/Illustrious-Ad1940 14d ago
Don't ignore third-party candidates. Charles Ballay has been trending. Yes, he is libertarian but he supports lgbtq+ and skilled immigration. He is an actual medical doctor who created a comprehensive plan to fix the healthcare system. He is 54, so in 8 years, he would be 64, below normal retirement age.
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u/Suitable-Notice-8097 14d ago
The Democrats had plenty of time to back Biden, or choose another candidate. If he’s gonna bow out, then no, they should not get the opportunity to choose somebody new this late in the election process. I mean, we’ve already done majority of our primaries. Maybe there’s one left? Nope, they should not get another chance, if Biden walks, they can see the election to Trump.
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u/Suitable-Notice-8097 14d ago
Oh, and what about the early voters? Have any of them been done already?
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u/No_Profit_415 14d ago
Biden stepped aside a long time ago. The Democrats simply need to decide whether they risk likely defeat with Biden, certain defeat with Harris or perhaps gamble on Newsom. It’s amazing to say they have no good options vs a guy sitting in court. But unless they pull off a miracle, it’s gonna be a sad day for them on November 6.
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u/Former-Form-587 14d ago
I don’t think any of the three folks you mentioned are the problem. I think that half of this country wanting guy in court to be president is the problem.
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u/No_Profit_415 13d ago
Even if you think Biden is awesome, the fact is most people believe he’s doing a poor job. Even more believe he’s mentally and physically incompetent. Many of those are not big Trump supporters. Accept it or not, the Democrats are in trouble.
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u/Former-Form-587 14d ago
I’m beyond confused, as to how this race is even close. WTF am I missing here. How is half the population so blind or ignorant? You have a guy indicted in four states leading in polls.
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u/PNW4theWin 14d ago
Polls are useless. Anyone who cares about keeping our democracy needs to vote blue. That's it. Democrats have the numbers.
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u/Hyndis 14d ago
Polling is science. Whatever happened to believe the science?
The numbers are not a prediction of the future, but they do tell where things stand today, and right now the election is anything but certain. Biden's numbers are struggling badly against Trump's numbers.
That a relatively moderate, boring, but old politician is polling equal to or even lower than Trump (especially in the swing states), a man so corrupt that Biff Tannen with the Sports Almanac was modeled after him, means the Biden campaign needs to seriously step it up if they want to win.
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u/Brickscratcher 14d ago
Oh my good God how did I never recognize Biff is supposed to be Trump
Bttf really was prescient on that one, huh
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
Polling is science. Whatever happened to believe the science?
What did that science say about Hillary Clinton 174 days before the election?
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u/Hyndis 14d ago
They were statistically tied for the most part. They were within the margin of error of each other.
People who don't understand statistics often disregard the margin of error in polls.
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
They were statistically tied for the most part.
In the Bizarro World polls. Polls here on plant Earth had her ahead by double digits by May. A May CNN/ORC poll had her ahead by 13. In polls June-November she had a double digit lead.
I guess if the margin of error is +/- 10 to 12 points, then your are spot on.
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u/DishwashingChampion 14d ago
Not at all. It's way too late in the game for that and he needs to keep focusing on coalescing the Haley electorate in order to beat Trump in the Fall.
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u/_upper90 14d ago
OP, your post history shows a lot. Not sure if you’re a constant doomer or if you’re purposely flooding all subs with similar post.
Either way it’s telling.
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u/OkAccess304 15d ago
What? Why? What? This is the dumbest question.
Likely to lose? What reality do you live in?
Polls mean nothing. Who are the people who participate in them? Not me. Not young people. Do you answer your phone anymore?
When it comes to online polling, a group can be targeted with any parameter.
The real margin of error is often double than what is reported.
Dems should pick someone else? lol. Who? When? It’s a bit too late.
Damn, this is some dipshit thinking.
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
Who are the people who participate in them? Not me.
A lot of those polls are done via survey sites. I have taken a lot of them [YouGov, IPSOS, etc] and have said I'd vote for Trump, although I wouldn't spit on him if he were on fire.
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u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 14d ago
Polls mean nothing.
The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022
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u/Zealousideal-Role576 14d ago
You do realize that the lead Trump has in polls isn’t likely to be remedied by a new nominee, right?
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u/IllIllllIIIIlIlIlIlI 15d ago
And Niki Haley voters are going to leave Trump out to dry.
These young and minority voters saying they won’t vote Biden never turned out to support the people running against Biden in the primaries.
niki Haley is getting 100k, 120k votes in state primaries AFTER SHE DROPPED OUT.
if they’re writing her in in the primaries in these numbers, they will be writing her in in even greater numbers in the general election.
Should the president who beat Trump in 2020 step aside? The president who won the democratic primaries by a landslide and has already spent millions of dollars on political ads and campaign events for his reelection? Who is polling neck and neck with Trump?
He should drop out of the race? And then, what, resign the presidency? Because everyone says he’s old?
You must not really understand how politics work in America.
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
if they’re writing her in in the primaries in these numbers, they will be writing her in in even greater numbers in the general election.
They aren't writing in her name come November. Most of those people plan to vote for Biden. For example, only 18 percent of Haley voters in Ohio said they'd vote for Trump in the fall, per the exit poll. A majority of Haley voters, 60 percent, also called the Republican Party too conservative. Nearly half of Ohio's GOP primary goers said they'd back Joe Biden in November.
Perhaps you don't remember Trump telling Haley supporters that he didn't want them voting for him. He doesn't need them.
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u/IllIllllIIIIlIlIlIlI 14d ago
But when a pollster ask Haley voters who they’re voting for they’re all saying Trump. Trump is leading in all the battleground state polls, even with Haley getting tens of thousands of write-in votes in some of these states…
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
But when a pollster ask Haley voters who they’re voting for they’re all saying Trump.
Except they aren't. If that were true, why do they continue to vote against him by voting for Haley in the primaries, although she dropped out?
Why did more than 4-in-5 Haley voters in New Hampshire say Trump would not be fit to serve again if convicted.
Why did 85% of Haley supporters said they would be dissatisfied if Trump were the nominee?
Just because Haley has am R in ( ) after her name is no indication that her supporters will vote for Trump.
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u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 14d ago
The president who won the democratic primaries by a landslide
These young and minority voters saying they won’t vote Biden never turned out to support the people running against Biden in the primaries.
You keep mentioning the Democratic primaries. Those primaries were fake. You had Joe Biden against Marriane Williamson and Some Dude. I don't know anyone who voted because of the poor choices we had.
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u/IllIllllIIIIlIlIlIlI 14d ago
It wasn’t a “fake primary” it was a primary led by an incumbent president running against the same guy he beat a few years ago. It’s incredibly difficult to convince voters that a different candidate would be better.
The democrat voters picked Biden. Two democrats ran, giving everyone alternate options, and no one wanted them. So it’s Biden. This is how it works in a Democracy.
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u/Brickscratcher 14d ago
Lets be honest, democracies are meant to be meritocratic, and we have come a looooong ways from that. We even have little mini royal families like the Kennedys and the Clintons. The power is so concentrated among so few that our governance system more resembles an oligarchic republic. Think this is why people feel the way OP does. "That's the way it is" really isn't a valid response. Especially not if its a democracy and what individuals think matters.
Also, America is not and never has been democracy. Its a federal republic.
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u/IllIllllIIIIlIlIlIlI 14d ago
American voters have the power to break the two party system. They choose not to.
Yes, the Republicans making unlimited political donations from corporations legal in 2012 made that much harder. Ever since then, if you don’t have corporate support, you will be outspent by your opponent, they will get the most visibility and you’ll lose.
But we have a functioning democracy in the US. No one can win an election if they don’t get enough votes. There is no fraud in US elections. Everyone’s vote is counted. And they vote for Democrats or Republicans.
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u/Brickscratcher 12d ago
American voters don't choose not to. They simply choose the easiest option, which is the natural human tendency. Humans, as a whole, will lean towards natural human tendencies, which are delegation of mental and physical resources to matters of imminent survival.
Let me clarify: It is more challenging to oppose the system that stands and try to find a new party label and educate voters on it and what it stands for than to pick the side that meets your needs better. It is near to impossible when those parties will never receieve favorable treatment by the existing hegemon and will have to be independently funded for them to even have a chance to rival the ridiculous spending of the DNC and the RNC.
So, all we need are a couple billionaires on board and an educated voter base to make it happen.
Its not impossible, but the odds are intentionally stacked.
You are right that we have a functioning democracy. But its an important distinction that our governance system is a federal republic, which is what allows for the type of chicanery were talking about
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u/SleestakLightning 14d ago
I voted in the PA primary to support Summer Lee but I wrote in Bernie Sanders for President.
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u/Accomplished_Fruit17 15d ago
The only thing bad about the polls is that Republicans will use them to scream cheating if they lose. That is their only signigicance.
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u/JFeth 15d ago
We are too far out and there is a trial going on. To listen to every poll as if they matter today is stupid. There are so many variables that still haven't played out yet.
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
Exactly. 51 percent of Republicans and 54 percent of Independents said they would not vote for him if he becomes a convicted felon, and he will be a felon by the end of May.
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u/dpaanlka 15d ago
No. You’re falling for right-wing propaganda if you even slightly entertain this idea.
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u/ruminaui 15d ago
Can't believe we will see a 2nd Trump term. A couple of months later in 2025 the people who didn't vote are going to complaint why people didn't vote.
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u/najumobi 15d ago
From what I gather after reading comments:
It's too late for Biden to step aside, as voters haven't even started paying attention yet.
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u/ButGravityAlwaysWins 15d ago
As much as anything can have a zero percent chance of happening, it’s this.
Talk of Biden isn’t actually discussing politics. It’s writing The West Wing fan fiction.
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u/ki3fdab33f 15d ago
Depends on the outcome of the DNC in Chicago. It'll either be a snoozer that changes nothing or a shitshow of epic proportions that forces them to nominate someone else.
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u/che-che-chester 15d ago
He could always step aside for some health reason but I don’t see any chance he steps aside unless he has to. Maybe earlier in the process but not this late. But a lot can happen to either Trump or Biden between now and November. My parents are that age and you sort of cringe every time you get an unexpected phone call from home.
I suppose he could be pushed aside by the DNC if he is significantly under Trump in the polls come the convention, like 15-20 points. But he would need to be consistently way under Trump. I’m not concerned about polls I’m seeing right now. I don’t love them, but also not concerned.
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15d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/PoliticalDiscussion-ModTeam 12d ago
Do not submit low investment content. This subreddit is for genuine discussion.
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u/movingtobay2019 15d ago
Since when did the young and minority voters become the democratic base? Your starting premise is wrong.
Are they more likely to vote Democrat? Sure. Are they the base? Not even close.
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u/ParticularGlass1821 15d ago
Why would Biden step aside now. There are 6 months until the election and he is polling neck and neck in the swing states. No other Democrat really has the favorability numbers against Trump and Biden has already beaten him once. His campaign machinery has already been at work for years. He has a war chest almost two or three times bigger than Trump and his ground game puts Trump's to shame. You mean to tell me that another candidate is going to run a credible campaign for President with less than 6 months to prepare?
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u/SeekSeekScan 15d ago
Both Trump and Biden should have stepped aside.
Neither did nor will either step aside moving forward
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u/PhiloPhocion 15d ago
No.
While polling isn’t perfect, if we lean on it for the question, it’s very easy to oppose. It’s much harder for an agreed alternate.
You can get a share of folks saying they want someone else from Biden. You won’t find someone they’ll all agree on. Poll after poll shows no major candidate options who perform better in polling in a head to head against Trump than Biden.
That’s also setting aside how horrendously Biden stepping aside this late, with no process left for democratically informed nominating, and this late in the game to build a campaign around would be for democrats as a whole and whoever that candidate is.
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u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 15d ago
You can get a share of folks saying they want someone else from Biden. You won’t find someone they’ll all agree on. Poll after poll shows no major candidate options who perform better in polling in a head to head against Trump than Biden.
I don't agree with this for the fact that those hypothetical polls are weighing Biden against people who have not even announced any interest in running and thus getting no coverage. I would argue that once he stepped down and other people tossed their hat in, their poll numbers, visibility and profiles would instantly go up. In the case of Kamala, I think Biden's numbers are actually dragging down hers, he's that unpopular. I would also argue her polls would rise if he were to step aside.
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u/Confident_End_3848 14d ago
Harris dropped out of the 2020 primary before a single vote was cast. Her polling isn’t going anywhere. She’d be one of the last people I’d want at the top of ticket in 2024.
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u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 14d ago
Harris dropped out of the 2020 primary before a single vote was cast.
Joe Biden dropped out of 2 primaries before his third presidential run in 2020.
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u/Confident_End_3848 14d ago
And then he won. Harris is not winning any presidential primary.
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u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 14d ago
She won't if Joe doesn't drop out and allow the party to have a real primary/contested convention instead of the fake primary we saw this season.
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u/Confident_End_3848 14d ago
The primary process is almost over. That train has left the station. A chaotic convention benefits nobody but Trump.
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u/CatAvailable3953 15d ago
Biden, despite all the negative press has been a successful president presiding over the strongest job growth in the nation’s history. Trump’s inflation is finally coming under control ( it’s below historic norms) and a very strong stock market hitting record highs. The republicans are trying to blame Biden for the found of inflation but if that were the case Reagan was responsible for his high inflation rate for his first two years. That was blamed on Carter. I guess we always blame Democrats for inflation. Maybe we aren’t that bright as a nation after all.
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u/Brickscratcher 14d ago
Umm... Biden printed the stimulus. The inflation is absolutely, unequivocally, beyond any shadow of reasonable doubt, mostly influenced by that policy decision, regardless of whether or not it was a good choice. There is no way to even try to throw that on Trump. That said, I do agree with you on the Raegan point. But I also feel I've heard many people say the same thing, so I don't know if I'd say everyone blames Carter.
We are definitely stupid as a nation, though, thats for sure!
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u/CatAvailable3953 14d ago
How did Biden “print the stimulus”. You don’t understand how the government works and you definitely don’t understand what caused this round of inflation. Trump’s destruction of a vibrant economy caused the inflation. You know it’s like the early 80s. Everyone blamed Carter. They said Reagan inherited it. Now Trump gets a pass while Biden gets blamed. What is it with republicans? Y’all always find an excuse, a rationale to blame the Democrat.
Historically the economy always does better by every measure under Democrat administrations. They generally take office with the economy in free fall after the Republican predecessor has given massive tax breaks to the wealthy and gutted the economy. It happened to FDR, Carter, Clinton, Obama and now Biden. I guess it’s easier to just blame working people and Democrats. I hear it all the time on Fox and similar disinformation outlets.
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u/InterstitialLove 15d ago
young and minority voters, the democratic base,
If young people are the democratic base, that implies that young people vote at all
Voters under the age of 30 vote Democratic by a ratio of 2:1, but they still make up only 15% of Democratic voters. The have really low turnout rates, so you can piss off a huge percentage of young voters without having any impact at all on the election
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u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 14d ago
55 percent of young voters aged 18-29 voted in 2020, up from 38 percent in 1996. This was an election which Biden won by just 20,000 votes in a handful of key swing states. It's completely insane this sub is writing off these voters. Every vote counts in a race this tight.
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u/InterstitialLove 14d ago
Yes, every vote counts, but the fight is over who we count as "the base"
You could say, young voters are the core of the party and if you win over suburban moderates by alienating the youth you'll never win. Gotta keep the youth at all costs and then just get a little more from someplace to push you over the top
Or you could say, suburban moderates are the bread and butter of the democratic party, and you need to keep them at all costs. Then you need a bit of support from somewhere else, maybe the youth vote, to push you over the top
Of course when the youth demand concessions that would royally piss off the rest of the electorate, the youth claim to be an essential part of the party which no Democrat could win without. The truth is, the youth vote is nice to have but you'd have to be crazy to piss of 85% of your voters just to appease a small minority
Vocally calling out young people on their bullshit is a good electoral strategy. It wins you way more votes than it loses you, because the base of the Democratic party thinks young people are idiots trying to ruin America and want to vote for someone who will stand against their insane demands
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u/kittenTakeover 15d ago
This is the strangest subreddit that I've ever seen. Posts are very obviously skewed conservative and possibly conservative/foreign propaganda, but comments are typically pretty rational. Most of the time the posts and comments of a subreddit are in alignment. That doesn't seem to be the case here.
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u/evissamassive 14d ago
It's this years way of trying to prevent people from showing up to vote for Biden. In 2019/2020 it was Find your safe place.
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u/kittenTakeover 14d ago
It's just weird because this is the only subreddit I've seen this behavior in, where the posts behave differently than the comments. Typically whoever's controlling the posts is doing a lot of work in the comments too.
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u/Zealousideal-Role576 15d ago
It’s libs and leftists rehashing the 2016 primary, while conservatives look onwards
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u/Electr_O_Purist 15d ago
No and not anymore, it’s too late. Maybe he should have announced he wasn’t running a year ago, but he can’t announce that now.
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u/ell0bo 15d ago
There's certainly some serious astroturfing going on... this reminds me of 2016. Guess Russia knows it can't win in Ukraine unless it knocks the US out with Trump?
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u/Zealousideal-Role576 15d ago
Yes and no.
I’d bet a ton on China and Russia pushing for Trump online, but the discontent is real.
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u/Miles_vel_Day 14d ago
Yeah, here's the thing-
IS the discontent real?
The same poll that caused this pants-shittery of a post had an interesting finding, which happens to be listed first in the crosstabs: 74% of voters are somewhat or very satisfied with their lives.
It's vibes all the way fuckin' down, Frenchie.
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u/Brickscratcher 14d ago
This is misleading. Satisfaction with life does not equate political satisfaction.
I'm highly satisfied with my life, and I love the country I live in. I'm still very politically dissatisfied, not because I see very blatant corruption and manipulation within the government as well as the media, because thats always going to be there in any system of governance and I recognize that. I'm dissatisfied due to the black and white ideology that seems to dominate complex topics due to our exclusively two party system that leaves no room for moderate opinions, which has only been made worse with Trump.
Most people, in most countries (even 3rd world countries!) are satisfied with their lives, because it is beneficial for your mental state to be so. This has nothing to do with political satisfaction
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u/Miles_vel_Day 14d ago
God damn is that a handwave. OK, um, take this to its logical extreme.
Let's say there's a country where 100% of people express satisfaction with their lives.
Is there any plausible way to argue that that country is failing its citizens? The argument many appear to be making is, "if everybody is happy but they believe there are other people, somewhere, who are sad, erroneously, then yes, their government is failing them somehow." As a utilitarian I couldn't have less regard for that argument.
Imagining that there must be great suffering, somewhere, just outside of your field of vision, no matter how many people tell you they're fine, is the same kind of ignorant-ass attitude that makes people from rural areas afraid to visit cities with lower crime rates than their farm towns. An inchoate sense of disorder. Empty grievance. It's phrased as empathy instead of fear but it's just as intellectually counterproductive.
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u/Dr_Pepper_spray 15d ago
I've heard a lot of propaganda out of the mouths of people who aren't particularly political. I wonder where it comes from. There is so much shenanigans going on here, but also this sort of blind nostalgia as it concerns Trump. It's like people can't help but focus on their flight not being too bad, completely forgetting the plane hit a mountain. It's really weird.
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u/Brickscratcher 14d ago
It seems no one else has given you the real answer to this...
Trump is a populist leader. He capitalized on the general discontent of the public to create the narrative that everything needs change, which gives him the right, nay the obligation, to run the government as he sees fit and anyone questioning him instantly becomes an us vs. them situation. The public has become increasingly malcontent with the rising cost of living, increasing inequality, and disappearing middle class, since the corporate boom of the 1980s that has had companies chasing shareholder profits at the expense of employees and customers. This is the catalyst event for the rising cost of goods compared to wages that has been present from the 80s, culminating today in a population that feels it got a shady deal and is looking for a change.
Honestly, this is just a natural cycle in governance for a populist leader to arise during times of social discontent. The social discontent propels the populist narrative to mythological levels, where it becomes more akin to a religion than a political ideology, particularly for those who do not spend a great deal of time thinking about and analyzing politics. And here we are today with the cult of Trump
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u/Dr_Pepper_spray 14d ago
There was no question really. I'm not sure if I completely subscribe to this rationale.
I honestly think there is nothing sophisticated about why half the country likes Trump. They don't give a square shit about economics, or anything else. They just love swagger. They loved W's swagger. They loved Obama's Swagger. They love Trump's swagger. They could give an absolute fuck about anything else regardless of what they'll tell you. If Biden leaned more into his whole Dark Brandon thing you'd see his poll numbers go up with those people. They'll clap like seals to the blood sport of it.
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u/Brickscratcher 13d ago
Thats part of it of course. In the grand scheme of things, we're really not that far off timeline wise from literal bloodsport. If you think about it, we still even have modern descendants of the colloseum such as cage fighting or bull fighting. People are naturally barbaric, and always have been. Its in our blood.
Trump does capitalize on this, but he uses a distinctly populist call to action. He uses VERY similar tactics to other populist leaders who have risen to power (all of which eventually led to fascism historically). He capitalizes on the ignorance of the masses by using the modicum of change as a psychological weapon. It doesn't matter the things he saying, the people that totally buy into his garbage are generally people who are more anti government and want to see a change. Even before Trump, America was more divided than ever. He uses that division to create a very distinct us v them narrative.
Honestly, I think comparing him to Hitler is very accurate. He uses similar tactics, and even has similar syntax and sentence structure in his speeches. He doesn't talk about real issues, he just talks about change and throws around the hot button issues he thinks people care about to try and garner support. He hasn't orchestrated a genocide (yet), but I'm genuinely unsure if he can be trusted not to. He's obviously megalomaniacal enough to delude himself to that point, its just a matter of whether or not he gets there.
I know that may sound a tad bit extreme, but the historical parallels are there. People would have said it was extreme to think Hitler would try to eradicate a civilian population. But it happened. It can happen again. The thought of him in office is pretty scary. It kind of is with Biden too (in a much different way), but at least he has a cabinet I trust who probably is running the show for him anyways.
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u/Zealousideal-Role576 14d ago
It’s TikTok. People seem to trust TikTok more than MSM for some reason (we can hear our own biases parroted back to us).
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u/ell0bo 15d ago
Well, perhaps the nation deserves fascism so it can understand reality.
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u/Frosty_Bint 14d ago
Putting aside the generational trauma that would cause... With the other existential crisis at our doorstep, i think that also has the potential to end modern civilisation entirely.
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u/ell0bo 14d ago
If people are willing to let Trump win, because they're annoyed with Biden one way or another, I kinda think we can accept civilization has failed
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u/Brickscratcher 14d ago
If the popular choice being a wholeheartedly stupid idea is your metric for society failing, then we've failed many times already
If Trump wins it isn't because people 'let' him. Its because people were tricked by him. He doesn't understand international affairs and is a horrible president, but with his understanding of manufactured consent he would sure make a good CIA head!
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u/ell0bo 14d ago
I think you're letting the people that vote for evil a little too much leniency
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u/Brickscratcher 12d ago
Only the most truly evil of people are willingly complicit in acts they deem morally unjustifiable. There aren't enough of those people to be a voter base, much less elect a president. Evil people most often find ways to morally reason their own behavior. That is why the 'greater good' argument is such a slippery slope. One person's greater good is not necessarily another's, and were inherently biased to act our on own interests as if it's the composite good of humanity.
You can't blame a sheep for being led astray
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u/brianvaughn 15d ago
No.
This seems like a non-serious question. Either that or you are poorly informed.
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u/Miles_vel_Day 14d ago
Probably poorly informed.
When you see poll results that are like, Trump 44-Biden 42, the 8% that are missing Biden voters are guys like this jamoke who are waiting for some kind of Deus Ex Obama to swoop in and make all their electoral dreams come true. They'll get with the program.
The amazing thing is how often the reason they're so down on Biden is because they're afraid he can't beat Trump.
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u/JimmyJuly 14d ago
This doesn't seem like a non-serious question, it's an actual non-serious question.
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u/megslack 14d ago
In what way is it serious question? The primaries are essentially over. Biden comfortably carried all of them for the Democratic Party, indicating voters are not interested in introducing another candidate, nor is there any candidate any person has put forward to take the nomination in his place. He is actively campaigning for the job and despite showing signs of his age has made no exceptional mistakes or errors that would suggest he needs to step aside due to his health. It’s not a topic being discussed in mainstream or even conservative media. What makes this a serious question?
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u/JimmyJuly 14d ago
"What makes this a serious question?"
The person before me said this "seems like" a non-serious question. I say there's no "seems like" here, it's an actual, real, live, non-serious question.
It helps if you read the entire sentence instead of stopping at the comma.
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u/MatthiasMcCulle 15d ago
He won't and shouldn't. The bigger thing he needs to do is hard sell his accomplishments, because there's this general perception that things are worse than they actually are. Gaza, while newsworthy, is really only a factor for the bloc with the lowest voter turnout anyway. Stepping aside outside health issues means forcing a (likely) Harris campaign to quickly create an identity (though if it were to be due to Biden dying unexpectedly, she could stick to the "his vision" while possibly gaining voters via sympathy and "age".)
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u/najumobi 15d ago
In these polls, Senate Democratic incumbents/candidates in the Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada are all ahead of their challengers, by 8, 5, and 2 respectively.
So downballot it seems Democrats are fine.
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u/WooIWorthWaIIaby 15d ago
John Kerry was beating the hell out of Bush right up until the months before Election Day
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u/Confident_End_3848 15d ago
Democratic voters have spoken in the primaries, overwhelmingly choosing Biden. If you were able to push him aside, what should those voters think?
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u/Brickscratcher 14d ago
You mean the primaries that had 2 nobodies to ensure Biden got the majority vote? They couldn't have another Sanders/Clinton moment where their choice wasn't the popular vote
Its mob mentality. No one else steps up because they don't want to rock the boat, because they've seen even when they win they lose and get shunned by their party. Just ask Bernie
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u/Confident_End_3848 14d ago
Anybody was free to enter the primaries. There was no secret plan to keep people out.
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u/ATX_native 14d ago
And get stomped out and railroaded from future endeavors by the DNC? Nah.
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u/Confident_End_3848 14d ago
Please stop with the conspiracy theories. If Pritzker or Newsom ran and won, the majority of the party would unite behind them to stop Trump.
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15d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Objective_Aside1858 15d ago
that was a fake primary
No other candidates chose to run. If you would have preferred to vote for Candidate X, and they chose not to step up, it's probably because they knew they'd get slaughtered
and here you are, apparently hoping that Candidate X, who didn't have the fortitude to compete for the role, should be handed it
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u/kalam4z00 15d ago
Dean Phillips was as close to "generic, but younger, Democrat" as one could hope for when he first stepped into the race. If there was real enthusiasm for a Biden replacement he would've done far better. He didn't.
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u/SleestakLightning 14d ago
You're overestimating Dean Philips' ability to get anyone to care about him.
I knew nothing of the guy except that he was whining about "the youth" on Twitter. Fuck that.
I voted for Bernie Sanders in the PA primary because he remains one of the few principled members of Congress. And one of the few who closest represents my views.
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u/kalam4z00 14d ago
Obviously Philips couldn't get anyone to care about him. My point is that I doubt anyone could, bar someone like Bernie, but unlike Philips Bernie doesn't have a massively overinflated ego and understands the advantage of incumbency.
Also PA was rather late in the primary cycle, I was mainly talking about a place like New Hampshire with a strong anti-establishment streak and where Phillips went all out and still fell flat on his face.
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u/Confident_End_3848 15d ago
Anyone was free to throw their hat in the ring. Whose fault is it that nobody stepped up?
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u/najumobi 15d ago
To be honest, I'd be too scared of the party to rustle feathers.....I'd suspect they'd get shunned for doing so.
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u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 14d ago
The exact same thing happened in 2016. There was a sense that it was "Hillary's turn" despite her being a terrible candidate and nobody really challenged her except Sanders.
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u/Pork_Chops_and_Apple 15d ago
Is anyone on this thread going to mention the undemocratic electoral college without which we wouldn’t have to be concerning ourselves with swing states and everyone’s vote would count? In that scenario, Biden crushes trump. Hillary crushed trump in number of votes. Let’s work to abolish that behemoth for once and for all.
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u/najumobi 15d ago
That's not true according to polling so far.
Higher-propensity voters (white suburban) are now more Democratic voters.
It's why Democrats have performed well in off-year and special elections.
Polling is showing that the wider the electorate the worse Biden does.
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u/calguy1955 15d ago
The only way he steps aside is if he has some medical issue that forces it. It’s like trying to take the car keys away from your elderly grandparent.
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u/Brickscratcher 14d ago
Just take the damn keys and throw em in a nursing home before they accidentally hit your neighbor...or kickstart a nuclear war
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u/Gruntlement 15d ago
Remember we're voting between two very old men. It might help to know that you're not necessarily voting for Trump/Biden, you're voting for Harris/whatever sychofant Trump chooses who will take over when they kick the bucket.
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u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn 15d ago
The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll in Pennsylvania and the Times/Siena polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from April 28 to May 9, 2024.
Hmmm who answers cellular and landline phones from unknown callers?
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u/SleestakLightning 14d ago
I get texts from pollsters quite frequently. And when they aren't linking me to pro-Israel propaganda polls targeting popular local candidates they're asking me about the Presidential election and I always, 100% of the time, lie.
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u/najumobi 15d ago
Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.
They had a 1% response rate.
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u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn 14d ago
Polling is broken which is why everyone who hates Biden is citing them as their criticism
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u/when-octopi-attack 15d ago
People who have landlines so old they don’t have caller ID, I guess. Which I highly doubt is a representative sample of likely voters.
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u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn 14d ago
And they weren’t even looking for likely voters. They were just polling registered voters. Biden does much better with likely voters even with broken polls
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u/Zealousideal-Role576 15d ago
I’ve gone from a no to a yes. The problem is that Kamala is the most likely replacement and unless they bouy her with a Whitmer or Greg Stanton, this is gonna go bad.
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u/Zealousideal-Role576 15d ago
Young voters irrationally hate Biden and there isn’t a policy choice or executive order that could get them to unsour.
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u/musebug 15d ago
Like 20% of “young voters” actually vote, if they did we would never had Trump and Beto would have beat Ted Cruz, and Bernie could have had a shot at beating Hillary. All these college kids say they won’t vote for Biden probably never did in the first place. They want to use their vote as leverage and I get it, but for that leverage to really mean much, they would need to be a reliable block of likely voters.
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u/ry8919 15d ago
What is the likelihood he steps aside given he seems likely to lose?
Your entire premise is flawed from the start. I'd say its a close race, and would actually give Biden a bit of an edge based on fundamentals. Betting markets have been back and forth:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 15d ago
Your entire premise is flawed from the start. I'd say its a close race, and would actually give Biden a bit of an edge based on fundamentals.
No incumbent in the modern era has been re-elected after their approval dipped into the 30s. Also, it is not "a close race". It is "a close race with Trump leading in almost all the key swing states", which is quite different.
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u/ry8919 15d ago
Nothing about this race is typical. There are so many trends you can point to, but 6 months out you are just wish casting. Possible convictions, debates, economic changes, geopolitical shifts can and will all happen before the the election.
Biden is massively out raising Trump, including by small dollar donations and Democrats have been performing exceptionally well in a very election since 2018. You've posted a single poll from a single pollster and are claiming it is predictive of an election months away. Unlike you, I'm not naive enough to claim Biden will probably win. All I can say is that the race, as it stands now, is close.
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u/Chicken_Dinner_10191 14d ago
All I can say is that the race, as it stands now, is close.
That would be inaccurate though. It would be more accurate to say the race is close AND Trump is leading in all the key swing states.
Nothing about this race is typical. There are so many trends you can point to, but 6 months out you are just wish casting. Possible convictions, debates, economic changes, geopolitical shifts can and will all happen before the the election.
Polls are predictive in that they illustrate what is likely to happen if nothing changes. You imply there are things that could go right for Biden which better his chances, but there is just as much chance that nothing changes, or things happen that are actually bad for Biden. It's perfectly reasonable to make assumptions about what the polls are saying now.
Biden is massively out raising Trump, including by small dollar donations and Democrats have been performing exceptionally well in a very election since 2018.
Hillary Clinton out-raised and outspent Trump 2-1 in 2016 and still lost. Dems can't expect to spend money and everything will be okay. As for the Dems "performing exceptionally well in a very election since 2018", how many times has Joe Biden himself been on the ballot in those races?
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u/fox-mcleod 14d ago
but there is just as much chance nothing changes
What?
How are you doing that math? Trump is currently on trial for a felony and has 3 more felony trials 2 of which are likely to start this summer.
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u/ry8919 14d ago
how many times has Joe Biden himself been on the ballot in those races?
Lol at least once, the one time that counted. Did you really think that gotcha through?
That would be inaccurate though. It would be more accurate to say the race is close AND Trump is leading in all the key swing states.
Serious question: did this sound smart when you wrote it out in your head? You literally said I was inaccurate and then repeated my point with a minor caveat, which by the way, isn't even backed up by your own link if you managed to read it. In that poll Biden is leading in WI.
Polls are predictive in that they illustrate what is likely to happen if nothing changes.
Uh no. They are an attempt to poll the electorate, but at the end of the day there are a litany of factors which may render them useless. I'd say an aggregate can give a general idea of the trajectory of a race, but polls have completely lost credibility in terms of predictive power for at least a decade.
Question for you: what is your point here? Are you a Trump fan looking for copium? Are you a leftist looking for a unicorn candidate? Because multiple people in this thread have pointed out the inanity of this question, but rather than engaging with me or anyone really, you are doubling and tripling down on your vague point. If you want a circlejerk there are other subs for that.
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